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Posts posted by heso
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Wordle 1,164 4/6
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I turned 40 this year. Thank you all for making me feel young.
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Wordle 1,163 5/6
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4 minutes ago, Js1 said:
538 forecast is back up: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Harris at 58-41 to win
287-251 EC
49.6 - 45.6 PVThey need to tune their model. There shouldn’t be any scenarios where Trump gets 532 or Harris gets 496.
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2 hours ago, Pancho said:
Per MSNBC
Dem insiders saying their internal polling isn’t “as rosy” as the general polling in the swing states and they hope this convention will help with some separation
My concern in PA with the switch from Biden to Kamala is that the latent racism and misogyny in a portion of the old white dems lowers turnout.
There’s a house I drive by when I go get tacos for lunch that has had a Biden Harris sign for like 6-8 months. Since the house next door has blossomed into full maga regalia. Last time I drove by the Biden sign is gone with nothing replacing it.
Obviously just a single observation that likely means absolutely nothing. But my fear is that PA doesn’t come through for Harris the way it did for Biden.
It was clear that enthusiasm for both old men was way down across the board.
I’m hopeful that there a lot of people that haven’t yet formed an opinion of Kamala. Hopefully they were watching last night.
That first debate could absolutely sway the battleground states significantly. The Trump campaign knows that which is why they were trying hard to get a Fox News debate out in front. I fully expect him to host a town hall on Fox and then say “well since she didn’t come to the one on Fox, I’m not going to the abc one.”
Im not sure how real any of my concerns with PA should be, vs just irrational fear.
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Are you...are you going to fuck these donuts?
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Starting to see Harris Walz yard signs in my very purple PA suburb.
there’s a handful of trump flags that are out year round, but not much in the way of new enthusiasm yet.
In 2020 the two guys across the street from me had a slowly escalating Trump v Biden sign/flag battle. By November team Biden had flags hanging from the entire length of his 40’ deck. So far nothing from either side there.
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19 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:
Pine needles & mid pines make a great 36 for one day. Great bar at the hotel at Mid Pines
Been pushing hard to lead into the trip with mid pines or pine needles (or both) plus Tobacco Road, but I’m meeting surprising resistance to playing 36 three days in a row.
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29 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:
When you’ve lost the boats…
Airshow yesterday and there was one Trump flag we saw on a boat. Maybe a dozen or so typically in past years. Likely more. Maybe the rest capsized. RIP assholes.
I drove from Pittsburgh to Harrisburg and back last weekend. I’m not sure how much of it is my optimism, but I couldn’t help but feel like enthusiasm for Trump seemed down. Even driving through Carlisle, which was hosting some kind of truck nationals, I saw plenty of small dick trucks but not a single maga tank.
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On 8/9/2024 at 8:37 AM, nolongerU2horn said:
No #10?
That was my response when I found out what courses we are playing.
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Just now, Mo Horn said:
Interesting. Here in kc there hasn't been a single Trump one. One for Harris about every hour. I guess the gop isn't worried about Missouri or Kansas so didn't want to spend any money here.
Every Trump ad is trying to portray Kamala as weak on the border. In Pennsylvania…
The last one was an ER nurse claiming that illegals are clogging up the ERs decreasing the quality of care and driving up cost. And it’s all Kamala’s fault.
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Watching the Olympics and every single commercial break switches between an ad for Harris and one for Trump.
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56 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:
Millions of acres of public hunting land here. Hunting and Fishing is part of the fabric of the state. I work in Minneapolis. Deer opener is one of the two non-holiday weeks in which I won't dare schedule a damn thing, because no one will be around.
People here wear camo for the same reason we drive 4x4 trucks- because we fucking use them.
Same here in PA. I remember being surprised when I found out schools everywhere didn’t give kids the first day of deer season off because so many people would be out.
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Pinehurst trip for next summer officially on the books! 2, 3, 4, & 8. Trying to talk at least some of the boys into going down a day early and doing Tobacco Road and mid pines.
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Can someone explain internal polling to me? Why is it different than public polling and how is it more/less accurate than typical public polling data?
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First two paragraphs from the top story on my news feed this morning “Tim Walz Military Record Under Scrutiny”
They are trying to learn hard into this angle because it’s all they’ve got.-
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11 minutes ago, mdmost said:
Sure but never underestimate the stupid left like chainsaw that will find some way to purity test the pick as a reason that people might not vote for Kamala even though doing so would make absolutely no sense for what they claim to care about.
Walz would be a home run for me but I'm not sure what else he nets. But he knows how to speak to the Rust Belt.
Hopefully all of the potentials have their calendars cleared so they can all be at the event introducing the pick to voice their support for the ticket to their individual constituents.
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The delusion from the other side:
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16 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:
More than one six-pack at a time? In Levittown I had to ritualistically buy one, then walk back a few steps to hand it to my wife, then I could go back to the counter and buy the second. No big deal, I thought it was kinda funny, which managed to get the clerk more pissed off at me.
192 oz of beer or wine per purchase. They basically made it so gas stations that had food prep and seating could get a restaurant alcohol license. Which is a separate license from a beer distributor license that can sell any amount of beer, or a winery license that can sell any amount of wine. Liquor still only sold by the state.
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9 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:
It's Bama. Found the original quote on Wikipedia:
"Between Paoli and Penn Hills, Pennsylvania is Alabama without the blacks. They didn't film The Deer Hunter there for nothing – the state has the second-highest concentration of NRA members, behind Texas."
For North Alabama, that's dead-on. If you got kidnapped by a PA/AL cartel and dumped in the woods of either state in your underwear you'd be hard-pressed to tell where you were until you tried to buy beer in a gas station. Beer = Bama. No Beer but it's a Sheetz or a Wawa = Penna.
(Let me get this tweed jacket on and light this pipe) Beyond that, Carville actually got it backwards. It's Alabama that's Pennsylvania minus Philly and Pennsylvania Dutch. When central PA was first settled it was heavy with Irish types who had 8 kids, and some went west, some stayed home, and the rest piled down along the Appalachian ridges through all those states and the last one was Bama. (There's hill in Mississippi that they sometimes claim as the end of the Appalachians-- they lie.)
We can buy beer in gas stations here now!
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1 hour ago, mdmost said:
Disappointed it's not Walz but Beshar is a good move if that's the plan. Red State Governor who can appeal to the middle. I've heard from people in Kentucky that south Pennsylvania is referred to as Pennsytucky because they share a lot of the same demos. If he can appeal to that portion and help wrap up PA then let's go. Walz will be there to help out.
Southwest PA is a little different than the rest of rural PA. PA used to be referred to as a T because the southeast corner was Philly and suburbs and strongly democrat. Southwest PA was the land of steel mills and coal mines and unions. It was a place where unions made a real fucking difference in towns where they’d send young kids into the mines and people worked long hours 6 days a week and were in debt to the company store. It’s a place where the changes that unions ushered in made a massive positive difference in people’s lives. And because of that it was solidly democratic from FDR through Kerry. McGovern was the only democrat that lost southwestern PA I’m that time. In that respect it has a lot in common with WV and eastern Kentucky. WV was a swing state and blue more often than not for most of the 20th century.
And then a black man ran for president and SW PA was lost for at least a generation.
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56 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:This is an excellent post. Yeah, some folks below disagree with you. And sure, it's about MESSAGING, not reality (Fox news and Rush and all that shit broke a lotta people's brains). But you know that I am with you on the "the individual is god, the common good is the enemy" ethos being a poison that we've ingested a ton of these past 30 years or so.
My hypothesis is that, as you see things going to shit for you (as they have for the rurals), you naturally begin to think "fuck it, I'll handle everything myself, I'm the only person I can rely on to help me." I buy that, because I've felt that way at times in my own life. It's human nature. So, it's you against the world. And fuck the world.
The counter-message to that ethos is "man...that sucks. But we're all in this together. We HAVE to all be in this together. What if we worked -- together -- to build something that helped all of us? You, me, your neighbors?" Offer that POSITIVE counter-narrative....and KEEP offering it. It's going to take DECADES to de-program people. So, let's get to work on that. Shit like "I'm not running for president of blue states, or red states. I'm running for president of these UNITED states. All of us. Working together for the common purposes that have made this country great, and can make it even better."
I’m not convinced they’ve ever come to the conclusion that they can only rely on themselves. They got told that their steel mills and manufacturing got shipped overseas by big city globalist democrats. They got told that the environmentalists are shutting down the coal mines. They got told that it was Obama’s fault that the post recession recovery skipped their communities. They got told that Biden was going to shut down fracking and turn off their gas wells. They got told that the Muslims were coming to destroy their way of life. They got told that millions of brown people are streaming across the border to come take what little they have.
They’ve been eating nothing but lies for decades and have absolutely no connection to reality. No ability to connect with what’s really happening. Because they actively seek out an echo chamber that is happy to feed them the lies that they desperately want to hear.
They are told that the shining city on the hill is being torn down by everything different than rural white Christians. They are told that there’s no possible way that the party that represents minorities or gays or trans or cities could possibly be good for them.
And in what is probably the greatest con of all time, Donald fucking Trump convinced them that he was the only one that could save them. By speaking in simple words and making fun of all of the things that they weren’t, they bought it. They swallowed it hook, line, and sinker.
He perfectly fed them the lie that they wanted to hear. That the cause of their situation was a grand conspiracy against them and only he could set things right. A brilliant, white, man of god was going to lead the charge to bring back a time where Christian whites were superior to everyone else, men worked, women cooked and everyone else knew their place.
They aren’t looking for bootstraps to pull themselves up by. They are looking for a party that will knock down anyone different than them so that they can climb over them.
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9 hours ago, Goredho said:
This will forever be my favorite moment from the Trump presidency. A man so incapable of admitting that he misspoke on slightly outdated information that he had to have a poster board made of a days old map and draw on it with sharpie to prove to everyone that he wasn’t actually wrong. What a fucking imbecile.
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Wordle [spoilers inevitable but discouraged]
in Lulz
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Wordle 1,165 6/6
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