I think PSU’s biggest obstacle to the playoff is being physical enough up front on defense to stop UM when they line up and say “make us stop running the ball”. Psu had a top 10 run defense last year and Michigan ran for over 400 yards in that game. The game being at Psu is a big help for penn state but imo it being at noon instead of a night game mitigates a lot of that. Night games in beaver stadium are worth a few points, as both UM and OSU have seen. I love the pass rush, the LBs, and the secondary. Hopefully by November Aller is shining because they might just have to out score UM to win.
Like you said, until they prove that they can stop Michigan’s run and win a game in Columbus, they are the 3rd best team in the division.
Also, the starting LG just had to medically retire, so that’s something they’ll have to sort out.