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heso

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Posts posted by heso

  1. 3 minutes ago, immamac said:

    Oh those are the segregated ballots? Nice. Then this thing is over. I thought the segregated ballots weren't left outstanding in the count. Makes sense. So PA called tomorrow AM at the latest. 

    No. They haven’t touched the segregated late arriving mail in ballots. If those get counted it will only stretch Biden’s lead. I think they are hoping they can call the state without a fight to count those ballots. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. 2 minutes ago, Welch said:

    Fair enough.  Just seems like a heavy lift.  If there are, say, 60k allowable provisionals, Biden would need to win those 65%-35% to pick up a net gain of 18k and increase his total lead to ~33k.

    Any fewer allowable would mean he’d need to win an even larger percentage.

    I did hear that 40% of them are from Philly, so that’ll help.  I’m just skeptical.

    Part of the overestimate seems to stem from the remaining ballot counts yesterday included a lot of ballots that would be discarded. Ballots that didn’t have the security envelope. There were 2000 of those in bucks county alone. That would equate to 40,000 naked ballots state wide. You’d assume an affluent suburb could follow instructions, so it could be higher than that. 

    that alone accounts for at least a 20,000 vote spread that won’t get counted. 

  3. 4 minutes ago, Welch said:

    Given how few PA ballots were announced today, I’m assuming that we’re fully into provisionals now (and mostly done with the mail-ins).

    If it’s true that the provisional breakdown generally aligns with the counties overall, and the two candidates are basically running 49%-49% across the state, how are we expecting this lead to grow to over 30k?  Wouldn’t it basically stay where it is, ~15k, or increase just slightly?

    What am I missing that’s going to put Biden over +33k or whatever and allow AP to call the race?

    There are still 35k mail in ballots in Allegheny county that are going to break 75-80% for Biden. 

    The provisionals are going to break between the counties split and the MIB split. Probably close to 60-65% for biden.

    There are some unknown amount of mail in ballots that were received after Election Day that may or may not count. Will probably end up in the Supreme Court. 

    • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
  4. 1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

    What's staggering is how many Republicans somehow thought Pennsylvania (Trump won in 2016 by 44,000), Wisconsin (Trump won in 2016 by 23,000), and Michigan (Trump won by 10,000 or so), were Republican strongholds.

    It's like "really, states that, outside of 2016, you basically have to go back to the 1980s to find Republicans consistently doing well in, you thought those were Republican strongholds?" 

    Because they thought the former Dems that were upset about the economy and jobs outlook in rural areas could be fed lies as long as they were allowed to be racist again. 

    They were largely correct.

    If the exit polls are accurate they lost white college educated people who were aghast at how terrible this administration was 

  5. 1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

    Yeah, his problem in PA was that he lost major share in all of the other counties.  While he still won them, it wasn't by nearly as much.

    The tale of the tape in pa came down to Erie county and Bucks county. Opposite corners of the state and opposite ends of the economic spectrum.

    Both flipped from blue to red in 2016 and back to blue this time around. 

    it showed that he lost just enough of the working class and poor and just enough of the upper middle class suburbs to cost him the election. 

  6. 15 minutes ago, Okie State said:

    Got damn it my family is from Pittsburgh and I still want a Gritty t-shirt.

    Look, we’re all having fun with philly saving the day, but come next hockey season philly will go back to being the dumbest, most violent, and overly drunk sports city in the country. 

    they can enjoy their respect through Inauguration Day. After that they’ll go back to being fat drunk and stupid and they‘ll remind everyone for the next 50 years, as they vomit into a urinal, about that time they saved America.  

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  7. 2 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

    I'm sure Cruz is doing the circuit and complaining and saying what Trump COULD do, but what we haven't seen is Cruz, with extensive experience in election litigation, offer any legal insight as to how Trump can succeed. Nor does it seems like Cruz is hitting his rolodex and getting a coalition of legal hitters together to properly challenge the election. For example, I really want to know who recommended the Michigan attorney that slid that hot plate of garbage in front of the courts.

    Fair point. I guess exactly what you’d expect him to do is pound his fist on the table on tv while doing nothing to actively assist in the fiasco. 

  8. 2 hours ago, Eastwood said:

    It never dawned on me, but that is exactly what he is doing. Flood the zone and overwhelm the other party with legal fees and continuous responses to motions. If it's frivolous, who cares? You'll just end up in a conference room and finish it there. There is no flooding the zone in this case, though. You can't force a State to the conference table to give you what you want. You have to fight it out to the bitter end and to do that, you need to shore up your position as best you can before you engage. I'm just surprised that the attorneys of Republican PACs who are seasoned in this type of litigation jump out there and slow Trump's roll. Just look at Ted Cruz. He clerked for a Supreme Court Chief Justice and played a large role in Bush v. Gore. Did he even make a phone call to a Trump legal team? The possible silence from Cruz here would be insanely interesting for a political historian to dig into a decade from now.

    You must have missed ted Cruz on Hannity last night saying that all options up to and including invalidating the pa election should be on the table. 

  9. 11 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

    AP waiting until lead gets over 0.5% recall threshold out of 6.5 million ballots, or margin of 32,500 

     

    If it were just mail in ballots they’d call it but there are potentially 100k+ provisional ballots that could go either way. 

    i expect that they’ll tip at least slightly in Biden’s favor but I understand why they haven’t called it. 

    • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
  10. 2 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

    I guess the next question is how many of that nature are there?

    My guess was that it could be in the neighborhood of 75-100k. Could be less.

    there are 500k outstanding ballots split 3/2 D/R.

    Most of those would have been struck when people went to the polls and cast provisional ballots. 

    Which is another big chuck of votes. There might be more than 100k provisional ballots out there. I think some of the smaller counties that finished their count early already counted their provisional ballots. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
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