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heso

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Posts posted by heso

  1. 9 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

    PA down to  1.2% (~78K) after Biden gained 12K votes in Trump-friendly Cumberland County. Biden's gonna finish 7 points ahead of Clinton in that county.

    Just the remaining Philadelphia vote alone might be enough to completely wipe out the remaining margin and pull ahead, before even touching the remaining mail ballots in Lehigh, Bucks and Delaware.

    It is. 

  2. 3 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

     

    I posted earlier that I thought Trump had a chance to win the provisional ballots because the R voters had a lower mail in ballot return rate than D voters. My thinking was that they requested to be automatically sent a mail in general election ballot when they requested a mail in primary ballot at the start of the pandemic. Then Trump drove the mistrust of mail in ballots and those people went to the polls. 

    someone later posted a link that might have debunked that theory if it was true, that Biden won the provisional ballot split in York county by a pretty wide margin. York is a red county so if Biden is gaining in the provisional ballots there he’ll probably gain overall. 

  3. 35 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

    have to repeat this...

    the stunning wall of silence from the rest of the GOP is sweet.

     

    And it all crashes down
    And you break your crown
    And you point your finger, but there's no one around
    Just want one thing, just to play the king
    But the castle crumbled and you're left with just a name
    Where's your crown, King Nothing?

    • Like 1
  4. 5 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

    King is saying dotard needs to win GA and PA, but I don't think that's true, unless I'm missing something. If Biden wins only GA, then there's a tie and it goes go to the House, where each state delegation gets one vote, and right now, dotard would win there. 

    Doesn't look likely, but it's weird he's not even gaming that scenario out. 

    Pa wins it all for Joe. Game over when that flips blue. Trump needs PA +2 others 

  5. 12 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

    Hope Biden does win PA by a good margin, because this postmark and delivery extension thing could be a problem for the ones received after election day thanks to usps fuckery. I think that's going to be a relatively small number though. 

    Those will only come into play if Biden is still behind at the end of the current count. We know they will break 70-80% for Biden. 

    and I think if it makes it to the Supreme Court the MOST they could invalidate are the ones that have a missing or smudged postmark as that was the only potential overreach by the pa court. 

  6. 17 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

    Pennsylvania attorney general Josh Shapiro criticized Donald Trump’s reelection campaign for suing to halt vote-counting in the pivotal swing state.

    “I’m not going to let anyone stop that process of counting,” Shapiro told MSNBC. “These are legal votes. They will be counted.”

    Shapiro accused the president of trying to draw election officials into a political battle, when the focus should be on counting the remaining ballots.

    “The rhetoric needs to go away,” Shapiro said. “The campaign is over.”

    Shapiro’s re-election also relies on counting all of the votes. He was behind on election night but took the lead as the mail in ballots got counted yesterday. 

  7. 29 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

    For the love of jesus

     

    I posted about this earlier this morning: 

    The only remaining ballots there (35,000) need to be “examined”. A big group of of those, potentially as many as 29,000, are from voters that got the wrong ballots. The company in Ohio that printed those ballots assigned the wrong addresses. So you may have had the wrong down ballot races on your ballot. I don’t know what they plan to do with those. The rest are ballots that didn’t have the security envelope or were damaged in the mail. Those won’t be examined until tomorrow for some reason

    • Hook 'Em 1
  8. 15 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

    Also, and this is why I am feeling very pessimistic....    If this supposed swing for Biden where he ends up with a 200-300k lead is going to happen, we should be seeing more significant swings.   Since last night, there has been a very modest 40k swing or so with only about 10k of that since around 8:00.   

    There "could" be anywhere from 400-700k votes out there but with Allegheny saying they are pretty much done (and that was only about 30-35k) how do we get to +200k for Biden.    

    The numbers need to start moving and pretty drastically or this is not going to happen.

    I don’t think it will be a 200k Biden win. But any lead is going to be padded a bit by the late arriving mail in votes. 

    Another thing to consider is that provisional ballots in PA might break slightly for Trump. Republicans had a 10% lower return rate on mail in ballots, my guess is because the requested them when they voted by mail in the primary at the beginning of the pandemic and requested their general election ballot to be sent by mail and then after Trump guided them to the polls they struck their MIB and filled out a provisional one

  9. 4 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

    You just multiply the margins by outstanding votes to get the expected pick up right? Assuming the remaining ballots track the previous margin, though it's possible it would be a bit better becuase the margins include election day votes that trend Trump. 

    The mail in ballots will skew far more towards Biden than the current county split. 

  10. 10 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

    That seems like kind of a big deal.   I think the 60/40 or 70/30 split Biden needs was hoping to get 25K or so votes out of Pittsburgh today.

    I think it could be. I still think Biden pulls ahead today, but it raises questions about how much of the estimated mail in ballot that’s out there are good clean ballots. 

    then there are still the mail in ballots that arrived yesterday, today, tomorrow. I think that could end up being 150k ballots. Could be less but I’d be surprised if it’s under 75k. That will skew at least 70% Biden and it will be part of a Supreme Court case over the ones that have no post mark or a smudged post mark. 

    i still think Biden wins it today, but it might take a little longer. If he pulls ahead today it’s over but if it’s close he still has another batch of votes in the wings. 

  11. There will be no more votes out today from Allegheny county today. The only remaining ballots there (35,000) need to be “examined”. A big group of of those, potentially as many as 29,000, are from voters that got the wrong ballots. The company in Ohio that printed those ballots assigned the wrong addresses. So you may have had the wrong down ballot races on your ballot. I don’t know what they plan to do with those. The rest are ballots that didn’t have the security envelope or were damaged in the mail. Those won’t be examined until tomorrow for some reason. 

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