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heso

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Posts posted by heso

  1. 7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    I’d have thought 3.2 was the magic number. I was thinking Dem +80k yesterday when there were 1.4 million left to count. 
    the data dork on red state seems pretty confident Trump should hang on. I was mocking and ridiculing him throughout when I thought it was a 6-8 point election, so clearly I’m the idiot. Been working all day what are the lefty data dorks saying?  

    Last week I thought joe could have a decent lead at 3.2 but the state as a whole really turned out. I think every county is going to exceed expected turnout. 

  2. 4 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

    Put some numbers to the NC race.... If you believe there are 475k outstanding mail in ballots that are 2:1 D then Biden +316K, Trump +158K. Final total Biden 2,972,066, Trump 2,890,438.

    If you apply the same logic to the Senate race but assume only 400k of those outstanding ballots cast a vote for the Senate (conservative number, I think), D +266K, R +133K. Total D (Cunningham) 2,810,372, R (Tillis) 2,773,701.

    Is my math wrong? If not, NC is very much in play. And so is getting the Senate to 50/50.

     

    And they have 9 days to wait for those ballots to come in as long as they were post marked yesterday. 

  3. 3 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

    also Pennsylvania law allows them to accept mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day for the next 3 days. So we still have votes coming in which should lean Biden.

    That’s also going to be a fight. Those are being set aside and not counted with the ones that came in through yesterday. I expect them to count, but it might be a Supreme Court fight for those 100k+ votes that will probably be Biden +40. 

  4. 7 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

    Help me out here - Trump (per CNN graphic) is up 600k votes in Pennsylvania but I see a lot of people here and elsewhere talking about it as still a possibility for Biden - are there that many votes left to count in Philly and Pittsburgh?  

    I’ve said it a dozen times in the last few days on this thread: If Trump’s lead at the end of Tuesday  was under a million votes, it was likely going to flip to Biden as the mail in votes came in. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  5. 1 minute ago, longhornmatt said:

    Yep.  When MSNBC went through the numbers a few minutes ago, it actually looked pretty good for Biden in Georgia if current margins hold in the uncounted votes.  

    Which is nice, because Detroit and Milwaukee might be duds.  At least the Philly and Pittsburgh votes that are in show the margins for Biden you’d expect.  I don’t know that Wisconsin or especially Michigan look so rosy.  

    Your gonna get a dump of apparently 100% of the mail in ballots for Wisconsin at 5-6am. Just like VA, as soon as that dump came it flipped the state completely. 

  6. 1 minute ago, 'stache said:

    CNN hasn't mentioned NC in a while. It looks like its tightening like GA. Any chance there?

    They have 9 days to count ballots post marked today and the USPS said there have been significant delays in delivering those in NC. 

    On GA, I think Trump pulls it out and I think the difference is delayed mail in ballots that won’t get counted there. 

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