Jump to content

heso

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    2044
  • Joined

Posts posted by heso

  1. 2 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

    Franklin's star is fading as well.  

    Losing to Indiana will do that. Tough when you win 11 games in 3 of 4 years but you’re consistently the 2nd best team in the division. 

    What coach out there is going to suddenly be able to make you better than Ohio state? 

  2. 1 minute ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

    Maybe I'm overthinking this, but forgive me, there's been a lot of Thirsty Goats drank in my house today. Should we be cheering for Ohio St tonight? If we assume it's fine if Ohio goes red, but we really need Pennsylvania to stay blue, I don't want the people of Pennsylvania to have any happy feelings before Tuesday. I don't want any thoughts of "Maybe Trump isn't so bad. He did bring back Big 10 football after all" creeping them into their heads. I want them as miserable as the rest of us going into Tuesday and looking for change.

    You’re overthinking it. I went to penn state. I’m drunk. The football team lost to Indiana for only the second time ever last week and looks really bad tonight. I won’t believe Trump loses PA until Biden’s inauguration. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. 22 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

    Ahh it’s doom and gloom time!

    Starts at 7:00 PM on the weekends.

    I turned on the psu-osu game thinking it started at 8:00. Thought I was watching the opening kickoff. Look down and realize it’s halfway through the 1st and osu just scored to make it 14-0. 

    Chug the rest of that beer. Crack a new one.

    I’m locked in on doom and gloom for the night. 

  4. 1 hour ago, heso said:

    There are just over 9 million registered voters in PA this year. 2016 turnout of registered voters was 70% and is expected to be a little higher this year. Call it 73%.

    Thats 6,571,460 total votes expected. 1/3 of those will be mail in ballots, split 66/25/8 D/R/I. 

    Assuming the polling average is right, look for Trump to be up in the neighborhood of 850,000 votes before the mail in ballots come in and then Biden come back to win by 350k. 

    By my fuzzy gorilla math, it’s possible for Biden to overcome as much as a 1.2 million vote deficit on election night, but realistically, anything more than a million seems highly unlikely. 

  5. 1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

    so i haven't spent much time on this thread, but what's everyone's schedule for grabbing this vaccine?  will it be ready on election day, or maybe a sneak peak the night before, like how movie theaters do it?

    in all seriousness, even though i was told there was a decent chance that one would be ready by election day, it seemed to be outrageous that i would even suggest one wouldn't be widely available by the end of the year.  so with that said, let me make a bold prediction - once trump loses the election, operation warp speed will neither be warpy nor speedy.

    even though he's not supposed to have any influence over these govt agencies working with the pharma companies to get a vaccine ready, i kinda feel like a successful vaccine coming out right around the time biden is getting sworn in, is not exactly the look trump is going for.  i'm looking forward to them "slowing the testing vaccine down please."

    is he that childish and petty?

    yes.

    My hope is to have it in my veins by the 2021 masters. 

  6. There are just over 9 million registered voters in PA this year. 2016 turnout of registered voters was 70% and is expected to be a little higher this year. Call it 73%.

    Thats 6,571,460 total votes expected. 1/3 of those will be mail in ballots, split 66/25/8 D/R/I. 

    Assuming the polling average is right, look for Trump to be up in the neighborhood of 850,000 votes before the mail in ballots come in and then Biden come back to win by 350k. 

  7. The mail in ballot split statewide is 1.8 million democratic, 700k republican, 200k independent. 

    And speaking of Butler county a few pages ago, add them to the list of mostly republican counties that are waiting until the day after the election to start counting them. Also there are thousands of ballots unaccounted for. They were supposedly sent out but people started saying early this week that they never arrived. 

    The return rate for mail in ballots in Butler county is 24%, statewide it was over 60% early this week.

  8. 7 minutes ago, RayDog said:

    I would hope they can machine count the ones already on hand on Tuesday morning.  Democrats have probably a million vote advantage there.  People in PA should also know to vote in person if they did not already mail their ballot. If they can't count the ballots on hand they are incompetent. 

    I posted it up thread but some counties are waiting until the day after the election to even start counting mail in ballots. 

     

  9. 1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

    66-29 Trump in 2016

    Butler county is somewhat interesting this time around. It’s the only county in western PA that’s had population growth recently and that growth is all along the southern border  from forest being turned into upper middle class Pittsburgh suburbs. 

    One of the biggest employers in the county is a steel mill so Trumps steel play resonates there, but one of their main products (electrical steel for transformers) didn’t get the boost from the tariffs that they were expecting because people just started shipping the Asian steel into Canada and Mexico and then assembling there to avoid the steel tariff. In March the company that owns the plant threatened that it would have close the plant if the tariffs weren’t tightened. They had just spent a few billion to buy the plant so I don’t believe they’d actually shut it down.

    Trump will still win bigly, but I expect it to be closer this time, if that new growth leans Dem at all.

    Also trump has a rally in Butler on Saturday. 

  10. 52 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    Eh, I don't think it'll be enough votes to swing the election. 

    I doubt it will be. But right now there are over a million outstanding mail in ballots that are more than 2-1 dem. Now a lot of those will come in over the next week, and some will be canceled and people will cast a provisional at the poll on Tuesday,  and some will go unreturned. But it’s still a lot of ballots right now. 

  11. 9 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:

    My county sent out ~278,000 ballots and has gotten back ~188,000 as of today and it is strongly Democratic so hopefully these people are ballot boxing.

    Where did you get the county data? I saw that Allegheny had 250k returned as of a couple days ago but I couldn’t find much more than that  

    Statewide mail in ballot requests were 3 million, broken down 63.1% D, 25.2% R, 11.6% I. 

    62% have been returned so far as of an article this morning.

  12. Biden is going to have to get it done without PA. They are going to do whatever they can to trim the number of mail in ballots:
     

    Pennsylvania election officials ordered to keep late mail ballots separate

    WASHINGTON — Pennsylvania officials have notified the U.S. Supreme Court that the Secretary of the Commonwealth issued guidance to county boards of election directing them “to securely segregate all mail-in and civilian absentee ballots received between 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, and 5:00 p.m. on Friday, November 6, 2020, from all other voted ballots.”

    The cutoff under Pennsylvania law for receiving mail in ballots to count is 8 p.m. A state Supreme Court ruling extended that to 5 p.m. on Nov. 6 but that extension is under court challenge. Republicans are asking the Supreme Court to declare that order unconstitutional.  

    Republicans asked that, at a minimum, late ballots be kept separate. The state took the action today on its own.

  13. Shit like this is what has me concerned, not pessimistic, just concerned about PA:

    A Pennsylvania election official told CNN that counties are "strongly encouraged" to begin their work on the absentee ballots at 7 a.m. But even if they don't, the official said the public would still have a good idea of what mail-in ballots are still outstanding at the time polls close and the party affiliation of those ballots. Counties can begin reporting the results at 8 p.m. after the polls close.

    Each county has a different plan for how to process mail-in ballots, which are expected to hit record numbers as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

    That includes Erie County, which swung toward Trump in 2016 and plans to begin counting in-person votes when the polls close at 8 p.m., followed by tabulating absentee ballots around 11 p.m., according to Carl Anderson III, the chair of the Erie Board of Elections. Erie is planning to stop counting ballots around 2 a.m. on November 4 and restart later that morning. 

    Anderson said there's a concern if the mail-in ballots are reported first, the results "out of the gate could look pretty skewed," because those votes were expected to be heavily Democratic, based on ballots requested, and the county was trying to mitigate that effect.

    Republican-run Cumberland County, which is outside Harrisburg, plans to report results from the polls only beginning at 8 p.m., and will not begin counting mail-in ballots until the following morning, according to Samantha Krepps, a spokeswoman for the county. 

    "On Election Day we will report the poll numbers, but we have three days to start the canvassing of the mail-in ballot. So, we took the opportunity to focus our attention on the election at the polls and then we will switch gears the next day," Krepps told CNN. "It's just a matter of getting the job done and we are focusing our attention on the polls because they are the most important thing on Election Day."

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/early-voting-ballot-count-pennsylvania-2020/index.html

    Pa is setting up to turn into a Supreme Court battle over mail in ballots. Counties waiting until the day after the election to even begin counting mail in ballots is just screaming for fuckery. 

     

  14. 9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Why are people so stupid?

    Imagine that inflection point on the chart if Trump had gotten out of the hospital and said “Covid is no joke. I had it. Thankfully I had a medical team that took great care of me and I’m feeling great now. But we need to be careful. We need to mask up and distance. Open up where we can but we need to be cautious and careful. Wear your masks. We’ve got some promising vaccines in the works and some great therapeutics but we’re headed into winter and we all need to do what’s best for our countrymen. Let’s get through this by working together.”

    Obviously you can’t imagine that because trump is a soulless sack of shit. But just image how many more people are going to get sick and die because of his inability to lead in that one single moment. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  15. I was more worried about this issue a few months ago. 


    a6028c42802349fa524e4edd22acc139.jpg

    Every day he tells people in states with major outbreaks that they need to open up. It’s all going away. It’s your terrible democrat governors keeping you locked up. They need to open up. It’s no big deal. We have a cure to treat you if you catch it and your kids will be fine in no time at all if they get sick. Don’t be worried. All your struggles are the fault of the democrats that just want to keep everything shut down to hurt my reelection. Open up.
    • Hook 'Em 1
×
×
  • Create New...