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heso

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Everything posted by heso

  1. heso
    Rural counties starting to come in and Cleveland still sitting at 45%, Columbus at 55%, Cincinnati at 49%
  2. heso
    There was also supposedly massive delays in mail in vote returns in the Atlanta areas. Idk if that played into it.
  3. heso
    Maybe. But it seems unlikely that they’ll get 350,000 ballots each processed and scanned in 12-16 hours in philly county and Allegheny County.
  4. heso
    Yea we’ll see how fast they can get them counted and when they will be releasing the results, but 36% of the mail in ballots are from 3 counties that Hillary won by 16, 21, and 67. i don’t know how much we’ll get of that tonight but Philly county said they will be releasing the mail-in count in batches starting tonight.
  5. heso
    You normally need a valid reason for an absentee ballot. 2016 there were about 225,000 cast statewide. Because of covid, this year you could just request one online. Took 3 minutes. There were over 3 million ballot requests. when it became clear that the option was being overwhelmingly utilized by Dems and that the counties had no way to count them the day of the election(took a week for the June primary count), it became a political battle. The Dems wanted the ballots to be processed earlier, the GOP wanted to minimize the amount of time that they could collect ballots. so you have dem controlled counties ready to start processing as soon as they can and gop controlled counties waiting until tomorrow to even start so Trumps lead looks as large as possible on Election Day.
  6. heso
    hopefully this swayed a few fence sitting republicans. He first endorsed Biden a month ago.
  7. heso
    If Trump’s lead is less than 1,000,000 you can go ahead and call it tonight. The Dems have a little more than that advantage in returned mail in ballots and you can probably pad his lead with a majority of the 260,000 independent MIBs.
  8. heso
  9. heso
    Most of the rest of the state has gotten redder, some of it significantly redder. It used to be a T with a strong dem lean in the Southwest. It’s now just Pittsburgh, state college and the philly area.
  10. heso
    In an area Trump won 60/35 in 2016.
  11. heso
    I voted for Biden. if Trump wins I want eggs Benedict. If Biden wins I want a bacon egg and cheese on an everything bagel. See how that works?
  12. heso
    1.9 million Dems requested mail in ballots. Even if 100% of those returned them successfully, if that’s 65% of the dem vote that’s only 2.9 million votes. 2.9 million won PA last time, but there are more voters and turnout is expected to be higher. Probably takes at least 3.1 if not 3.3 to win PA this year. There are currently 600k outstanding mail in ballots. 350 dem, 264 rep, 92 ind. excluding the undecided independents that works out to 398k outstanding mail in ballots for dems, vs 264k mail in ballots for gop. The state comes down more to how well the Dems gotv tomorrow than it does to the remaining mail in ballots.
  13. heso
    Yea, but when almost everything is pointing to Biden winning PA, if you’re really searching for a sign that it will go to Trump, that line item in the Monmouth Poll released today is about the only straw to grasp at right now.
  14. heso
    The assumption is that the Democrats aren’t going to show up tomorrow. The support for that line of thought is that 65% of Dems told pollsters that they planned to vote by mail and only 1.5 million did. If assume that the equivalent portion of Dems vote in person, they end up with 2.4 million total votes. Since only 15% of republicans planned to vote by mail and 500k of them did, it can be argued that there is going to be a massive Trump lead in in-person voting tomorrow. I think there is some validity to that concern, but it seems more likely that more Dems are going to vote in person that were scared of Trump fighting the mail in ballots.
  15. heso
    Appears to be the audio from this video from 2017 dubbed over that voting video.
  16. heso
    The southern states all stay red, Dems turnout lower than expected in PA after mail in voting, and polls are wrong on Arizona. its a slim path but 538 has him with a 10% chance. Their chosen media outlet has them convinced that it’s the most likely outcome because the polls were wrong last time. also, in their mind, Trump winning with 270 EC means that it was actually a landslide but the Dems couldn’t cheat enough to pull it off.
  17. heso
    Hopefully the Dems turn out in PA tomorrow. because with 1.5 million votes cast by mail, and 65% of Dems saying they intend to vote by mail, 2.4 million votes will not be enough to win the state. It’s gonna take at least 3 million, probably closer to 3.2 or 3.3 to win the state.
  18. heso
    Fify
  19. heso
    Hillary won centre county 36.5k to 35k. As soon as you leave state college you’re in mountains and farms. Sparsely populated, heavy trump.
  20. heso
    You just show up to your polling place. The record will show that you requested an absentee ballot. You fill out a provisional ballot. Those get counted last and are cross referenced to make sure the person’s vote wasn’t already counted.
  21. heso
    Trying to ban fracking on that federal land in PA will set up a major court battle. 95% of the subsurface/mineral rights on that land are privately owned. And it’s definitely heavily (sort of) drilled for gas. Was previously drilled for oil and the major reason the subsurface rights are privately held is because that was a major oil producing region when it became a national forest.
  22. heso
    The two biggest counties in the state, Allegheny and Philadelphia are starting the count at 7:00am Tuesday. Those two counties account for almost 1/3 of the mail in votes in the state. I’m sure they are doing everything they can to get the count done as quickly as possible but at the end of the day they have to feed the ballots into a machine to count the votes so they can only go as fast as the machines they have will allow. The other thing to keep in mind is that they have to keep accepting and counting ballots for 3 days as long as they have a Tuesday post mark. So some people may think PA has 3 days to count the votes, there is no time limit (as far as I know) on counting. The time limit is on how long they can receive legally cast ballots. it took a week to count the primary votes.
  23. heso
    The Post-Gazette's once liberal editorial tone shifted more conservative following the 2018 consolidation of its editorial department with that of longtime sister newspaper The Blade of Toledo, Ohio, and the appointment of that paper's editorial page editor Keith Burris, a frequent defender of Donald Trump, to direct the editorial pages of both papers.[3] Burris assumed the additional position of executive editor of the Post-Gazette in 2019.
  24. heso
    Where did the concept of the shy trump voter come from? It seems like it has to be nothing more than a creation of the trumpers to allow them to square their insistence of a trump landslide with polling that shows anything but that landslide. the polling underrepresented the uneducated whites in 2016. That makes sense and the polls claim that they’ve accounted for that (I’m hoping that they over corrected by a couple points). So we’re to believe that there is 5-6% of polled respondents are either embarrassed to admit or intentionally being deceptive about voting for Trump? Seems like bullshit.
  25. heso
    Think it was about 1,500. No public tickets. Just family of players and staff.

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