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heso

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Posts posted by heso

  1. 6 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

    Yeah, you're going to need a big run-up over the next four days. You predicted 10,000 deaths/day starting on Friday, argued for it emphatically in the last week of March and batted aside the premise of mitigation playing a role, and then doubled-down on this thread last Wednesday by restating the same.

    I don't know, early numbers today don't look great for the living. High death toll for NY, high early half day update for FL, Indiana looks like it could be flaring up really poorly for the living. Georgia posted some catch-up numbers on the death toll side so that number is inflated in reality, but still not good.

    Today could be the highest death toll for the US yet. Sucks. Was hoping to see the top end hold the line a bit. We won't be anywhere near 10k/day by Friday or within 25,000 of dipshit's numbers he called for by the start of next Wednesday, but it would be nice to see the plateau take hold and then dip in the next week. Probably fantasy, but it beats alternative choices.

    Even with the revised IHME model, to meet their new peak of 3100 deaths per day next week, we’re underneath their projection 3 days in a row now. Unless we start hitting well into the 2000’s soon they will have to revise their total deaths down again. 

    • Like 1
  2. 4 minutes ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

    Booked an Airbnb this morning. Why the hell not? Espn was talking about how there won’t be azaleas but the leaves will be changing and have a totally different look. Definitely not how I wanted to see the masters for the first time in person but at least I’ll hopefully be able to see I saw one of the most unique masters. 
     

    also, did anyone ever get their hard tickets for the original tournament or did they not ship? 

    They shipped, at least for the practice rounds. 

  3. 36 minutes ago, freyguy said:

    I took a mask with me this past weekend to go to Home Depot.  The employees and customers are way behind the social distancing practice, as compared to HEB.  At least in my neck of the woods.

    I wore a mask, but as I went thru the store, I wish I had gloves too.  Next time.

    It's very easy to decon a mask.  Just get a spray bottle, fill it with rubbing alcohol, spray both sides and let it air dry. 

    All of this is very easy to do.  Just get past the initial level of self-imposed embarrassment, and you'll be good to go.

    I went to HD to pick up an online order on Saturday and the only two people in the store with masks were two 70+ year old shoppers. My wife had to get some things at target the next morning and she said every single person in the store, customers and employees had masks on. 

  4. 8 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

    IHME updated their graph today


    Total US deaths drop about 13k




    https://covid19.healthdata.org/


    Peak in 10 days

    NY peaks in 4 days at 865 deaths

    Some interesting things in the update. Peak deaths revised upward from somewhere in the 2k range to 3130 but total deaths revised down from 93k to 81k. A number of states have had their peak hospital utilization cut way back. Seems to imply that shit is bad in a few places but overall the sheltering in place is working.

    Virginia’s expected peak moved from may 20th to April 20th. 

     

     

  5. 10 minutes ago, tjhooker said:

    Look at Ohio moving down each day on the total cases list.  Look at the surrounding states of Indiana, Michigan and PA.  All with less population than Ohio except PA which is now multiples higher.  The Gov here kicked ass early having the balls to shut things down.  DeWine is going to come out of this looking like a hero. 

    PAs numbers are much different on the eastern side of the state where they’re getting a lot of bleed over from NY & NJ than they are on the western side of the state. 

    Im very happy that Ohio has been taking the lead in shutting shit down and that MD & PA have fallen quickly on his heels with the school closures and sip’s. 

  6. I’m working from home and my wife has been deemed an essential employee so she still has to go into the lab every day. We have a 3 year old and I can’t keep her engaged while working and on calls so my wife has started working 2am-11, and I’m working 11am-8pm which inevitably turns into 9, 10, 11. The kid sleeps until 6am normally but has been getting up at 5am a lot recently so I’ve been getting shit sleep. My wife even less. My day is wake up too early and do stuff with the 3 year old until my wife gets home then work until dinner and put the kid to bed then spend a little time with my wife until she’s falling asleep then back to work for a few hours until the stress of cutting too far into my sleep pulls me off the computer and then read until I’m tired enough to go to sleep. Rinse repeat. And it’s really starting to wear me thin. I’m realizing I need to get a LOT more regimented with my schedule or I’m not going to make it through another month or more of this. 

    • Like 1
  7. 4 hours ago, landman said:

    I get this is serious, just have a lot of questions.  When I see numbers that show over 85% of all tests are negative, seems we are heading in the wrong direction with testing.  Something like 600k have tested negative to the 80k positive.  That's a lot of testing that for whatever reason is being done on people that maybe  don't need it?  In turn it is tying up doctors, staff, and using test kits that should be done on others.  Do these people have symptons, or are they panicking due to what they are hearing?  Either way, they are having an impact on hospitals, etc. 

    I also am curious as to if the flu vaccine has any impact.  How many people that are positive had the vaccine?  And how many people that tested negative have had the vaccine?  Valid questions in my opinion.  

    Dr Birx 2 or 3 weeks ago at one of the White House press briefings said that as testing was ramping up in the US results were coming back at a 1-2% positive rate as opposed to the 3-4% positive other countries were seeing at the time and that those results were indicative of the spread in the US being pretty minor. Meanwhile we hear story after story after story of people that meet every symptom being denied testing because they didn’t fit some very specific travel criteria. As testing has ramped up, the positive rate has soared. We now see that this has been spreading in New York for more than 2 months.

    South Korea was the first hot spot outside of china. They contained it with aggressive early measures, widespread testing, extensive contact  tracing. Last Sunday our daily cases surpassed their total cases. By this Sunday our daily cases will be more than double their total cases. Tomorrow Italy’s DEAD will surpass SKs total cases. At some point our dead will pass that number too.

    there is no such thing as over testing. 

    • Like 4
  8. 2 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

    I find this fascinating...Covid...sure but overall we be getting healthier than expected??

     

    https://healthweather.us/

    My guess would be the drastic measures everyone is taking to avoid the covid are causing typical cold and flu infections to plummet. That’s regularly 50-100 million potential fevers annually that aren’t being spread around right now. 

  9. Well guys my step brother’s wife and her antivax mom group determined that the stock market is going to bottom out at zero. 
     

    I didn’t bother asking if that was for the Dow or all public companies. I couldn’t handle any more stupidity. 

    whatever it is, give me all of it. All of everything. 

  10. Uh oh
    https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-16-20-intl-hnk/h_6e1f01640b115ad8c8c625f496fd06a5?fbclid=IwAR3KqemQjRrYDAZI1qr0FOQ5QNZq3Ry31J0yn7mBi6VyOelvYrFM--zECqA
    21 hr 44 min ago

    Pennsylvania closes all state liquor stores indefinitely

     
    All Pennsylvania state liquor stores and licensee service centers will close indefinitely tomorrow at 9 p.m. ET, the Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board announced.
    “This was a tremendously difficult decision to make, and we understand the disruption our store closures will have on consumers and licensees across the commonwealth,” Board Chairman Tim Holden said in a statement.
    Holden continued:
    “But in these uncertain and unprecedented times, the public health crisis and mitigation effort must take priority over the sale of wine and spirits, as the health and safety of our employees and communities is paramount.” The liquor control board handles all beverage alcohol distribution in Pennsylvania, operating nearly 600 wine and spirits stores statewide. It licenses 20,000 alcohol producers, retailers, and handlers, according to the statement.
     


    I’m prepared for the long haul in these trying times in PA.
    c6ff1fb230fc96700e43e5debef7c3ca.jpg
    • Like 6
  11. 25 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    I’m  little perplexed at how 2 data sets that I don’t believe are accurate can continue to mirror each other.  

    Because you’re not seeing the actual spread of the virus in those numbers. You’re seeing testing being scaled up and people developing severe symptoms pushing them to hospitals and then being confirmed as positive. 

    You know the virus is spreading. You don’t believe the total numbers reported are reflective of actual spread. You can still see the spread of the virus by looking at the numbers being reported and understanding that those numbers are a small subset of total infections. 

    • Like 1
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