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Losing to Indiana will do that. Tough when you win 11 games in 3 of 4 years but you’re consistently the 2nd best team in the division. What coach out there is going to suddenly be able to make you better than Ohio state?

Inaccurate.

Interesting that in 48 hours after Butler county started making national headlines for losing thousands of ballots, the returned mail in ballots have gone from 24% returned to 66%. Most other counties have gone from the low 70s to upper 70s in that time.

You’re overthinking it. I went to penn state. I’m drunk. The football team lost to Indiana for only the second time ever last week and looks really bad tonight. I won’t believe Trump loses PA until Biden’s inauguration.

I turned on the psu-osu game thinking it started at 8:00. Thought I was watching the opening kickoff. Look down and realize it’s halfway through the 1st and osu just scored to make it 14-0. Chug the rest of that beer. Crack a new one. I’m locked in on doom and gloom for the night.

Record through 66 games: Jim Harbaugh at Michigan: 48-18 Bo Pelini at Nebraska: 48-18

So just to be clear, now that we’ve hit the weekend before the election, we’re just gonna roll the freaking out and negativity straight through from here to Wednesday morning, right? Im in the heart of Trump country for the weekend with the booze and pessimism cranked up to 11.

CSB: I saw my first demolition derby at the Big Butler Fair.

My French ancestors left France for America 40 year before the revolution, but I’m not gonna let that stop me from wanting to see some treasonous heads roll.

Just came upstairs from my office or you’d have had it tonight.

By my fuzzy gorilla math, it’s possible for Biden to overcome as much as a 1.2 million vote deficit on election night, but realistically, anything more than a million seems highly unlikely.

My hope is to have it in my veins by the 2021 masters.

There are just over 9 million registered voters in PA this year. 2016 turnout of registered voters was 70% and is expected to be a little higher this year. Call it 73%. Thats 6,571,460 total votes expected. 1/3 of those will be mail in ballots, split 66/25/8 D/R/I. Assuming the polling average is right, look for Trump to be up in the neighborhood of 850,000 votes before the mail in ballots come in and then Biden come back to win by 350k.

The mail in ballot split statewide is 1.8 million democratic, 700k republican, 200k independent. And speaking of Butler county a few pages ago, add them to the list of mostly republican counties that are waiting until the day after the election to start counting them. Also there are thousands of ballots unaccounted for. They were supposedly sent out but people started saying early this week that they never arrived. The return rate for mail in ballots in Butler county is 24%, statewide it was over 60% early this week.

I posted it up thread but some counties are waiting until the day after the election to even start counting mail in ballots.

Butler county is somewhat interesting this time around. It’s the only county in western PA that’s had population growth recently and that growth is all along the southern border from forest being turned into upper middle class Pittsburgh suburbs. One of the biggest employers in the county is a steel mill so Trumps steel play resonates there, but one of their main products (electrical steel for transformers) didn’t get the boost from the tariffs that they were expecting because people just started shipping the Asian steel into Canada and Mexico and then assembling there to avoid the steel tariff. In March the company that owns the plant threatened that it would have close the plant if the tariffs weren’t tightened. They had just spent a few billion to buy the plant so I don’t believe they’d actually shut it down. Trump will still win bigly, but I expect it to be closer this time, if that new growth leans Dem at all. Also trump has a rally in Butler on Saturday.

Or when he gets shorted on the bill after the work is done.

I always was more of an Arnold Palmer guy.

Looks like we’re gonna come close to breaking the single-day new case count on a Wednesday. We haven’t had a Wednesday increase higher than the previous Friday since July 8th.

I doubt it will be. But right now there are over a million outstanding mail in ballots that are more than 2-1 dem. Now a lot of those will come in over the next week, and some will be canceled and people will cast a provisional at the poll on Tuesday, and some will go unreturned. But it’s still a lot of ballots right now.

Where did you get the county data? I saw that Allegheny had 250k returned as of a couple days ago but I couldn’t find much more than that Statewide mail in ballot requests were 3 million, broken down 63.1% D, 25.2% R, 11.6% I. 62% have been returned so far as of an article this morning.

Biden is going to have to get it done without PA. They are going to do whatever they can to trim the number of mail in ballots: Pennsylvania election officials ordered to keep late mail ballots separate WASHINGTON — Pennsylvania officials have notified the U.S. Supreme Court that the Secretary of the Commonwealth issued guidance to county boards of election directing them “to securely segregate all mail-in and civilian absentee ballots received between 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, and 5:00 p.m. on Friday, November 6, 2020, from all other voted ballots.” The cutoff under Pennsylvania law for receiving mail in ballots to count is 8 p.m. A state Supreme Court ruling extended that to 5 p.m. on Nov. 6 but that extension is under court challenge. Republicans are asking the Supreme Court to declare that order unconstitutional. Republicans asked that, at a minimum, late ballots be kept separate. The state took the action today on its own.

Shit like this is what has me concerned, not pessimistic, just concerned about PA:

Imagine that inflection point on the chart if Trump had gotten out of the hospital and said “Covid is no joke. I had it. Thankfully I had a medical team that took great care of me and I’m feeling great now. But we need to be careful. We need to mask up and distance. Open up where we can but we need to be cautious and careful. Wear your masks. We’ve got some promising vaccines in the works and some great therapeutics but we’re headed into winter and we all need to do what’s best for our countrymen. Let’s get through this by working together.” Obviously you can’t imagine that because trump is a soulless sack of shit. But just image how many more people are going to get sick and die because of his inability to lead in that one single moment.

Every day he tells people in states with major outbreaks that they need to open up. It’s all going away. It’s your terrible democrat governors keeping you locked up. They need to open up. It’s no big deal. We have a cure to treat you if you catch it and your kids will be fine in no time at all if they get sick. Don’t be worried. All your struggles are the fault of the democrats that just want to keep everything shut down to hurt my reelection. Open up.