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Posts posted by heso
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1 week change in 538’s projected delegate totals:
2/19:
Today:
Of note is that they are now projecting Bernie to pull 226 delegates out of California alone.- 1
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1 minute ago, Thrawn said:
I have seen a handful of those here in Florida recently. If I actually put shitty stickers on my car, that is the one I would go for.
In western PA the only candidate promotion I’ve seen in the last year is Trump stuff except for 1 Pete yard sign and my Yang “Math. Money. Marijuana.” shirt.
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I’ve been convinced that Trump is going to run away with PA. When I was rolling up to the light this morning I assumed this was a Trump sticker, but seeing it gave me a little hope that PA is still in play.- 1
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4 minutes ago, Message Board User said:
What if I think Bernie's policies and proposals would be disastrous for the country?
Am I still obligated to vote for him even if he's not Trump?
Personally, I give no fucks about the Bernie Bros - they are the other side of the crazy coin (the MAGAts being the other side). It's his policies I have issues with.
Can you elaborate on what policies will be disastrous for the country and how they will play out?
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2 hours ago, triplehorn said:
----> Texas has added a million new voters in a year and a half, almost 2 mil since 2016. A third are under 25 and a lot are Hispanic (38% of pop.).
The GOP won Texas by 16% in 2012, then Trump beat Clinton by 9% in 2016.
keep it going
Yinz guys are gonna save the republic when the rust belt stays red.
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12 hours ago, troph said:
Agreed we have to vote for Bernie, but we got trump because they sat out last time around. No love lost for the bros, they are terribly in the way of Sanders. Self described insulting assholes, screaming for the sport of it, willing to hurt people for a laugh, don’t like them, don’t need them, they are a major liability and will only further polarize discourse. But yes vote for the dem no matter what.
Where did this idea that the Bernie bro’s sat out and cost the dems the election? Where is the analysis that is the demographic that swung the election? I’ve never seen it. If it exists I’ll take it for what it’s worth but on the surface, I don’t buy it.
Pa had 1.66 million primary voters in 2016. Clinton got 2.926 million votes. She underperformed Obama by 63k votes. Trump won by 44k votes, outperforming Romney by 290k votes. Going into Election Day her campaign wanted to carry a margin of 450k in the southeast pa counties. They left those counties with a margin of more than 475k. That alone should have won them the state. So where did she underperform and Trump excel? Literally every suburb in the state. The corridor from Scranton to Wilkes-Barre, Erie, Johnstown, south central Pa. areas that have been reliably blue for decades. She got crushed in those areas for a number of reasons: her assumption that she would win them all, Trump running an effective campaign of stoking fear in Islamist terrorism to convincing people the Mexicans were taking their jobs and bringing in drugs. Clinton stayed out of the state and ran ads that highlighted the offensive stuff Trump said. She should have ran ads about all the people that lost jobs when his businesses folded, highlighted all of the contractors that went out of business when he stiffed them on contracts.
Trump ran an effective campaign of lies. Clinton ran an ineffective, lazy, and presumptuous campaign because she and her team thought they had PA in the bag.
Blaming the 2016 election on Bernie bro’s is lazy and disingenuous. It completely ignores the facts that Hillary was a terrible candidate that ran a bad campaign and Trump ran an effective campaign that stoked fear and boosted turnout.
I don’t see tens of thousands of suburban and rural Bernie bros in pa swinging the election.
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Bryson had a nice little run going. -11 thru his last 15 holes before he dunked that one in the water.
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Bloomberg bought a bunch of billboard ads in advance of Trump’s rally near his hotel and along the motorcade route:
Other billboards:
Donald Trump cheats at golf.
Donald Trump lost the popular vote.
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6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:
I think he bought the DC place quite a few years ago.
An article I saw this morning said he still has ~300k left on the mortgage for his DC house and his lake house was bought with his book deal money and some of his wife’s retirement money.
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Just now, Xian said:
There was a 44k vote differential Last go around. You don’t think the fracking ban will make a difference?
I think Trump wins PA and I don’t think fracking will have anything to do with it.
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4 minutes ago, GRHorn said:
Oof.
Maybe he can sell it as, you’re gonna lose your job, but you’ll love the free healthcare and college.
PA voters are slightly in favor of a fracking ban and it breaks down exactly as you’d expect. Philly and Pittsburgh are in support of a ban. The yokel in the rural western part of the state who was sitting on 100 acres of forest with a hunting shack on it that is now getting paid off loves fracking. Fracking isn’t shifting the vote in PA.
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4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:
It was exactly the Bloomberg debate. The goal of everyone on that stage was to cut down Bloomberg.
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1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:
Anyone want to join me on the #NeverBloomberg bus?
The "I can't use Turbotax" line... Jesus...
I don’t know how anyone could have watched that and came away that Bloomberg is their guy.
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Who the fuck are these people in the crowd cheering every time Bloomberg speaks? Was he handing out cash on the way in?
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1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:
Chuck Todd said "We got it!" at the end right before that commercial break. They want Bernie on tape saying the person with the most votes should get the nomination so that if he doesn't get it they can throw it back at him if he starts talking like the rest of the candidates.
Every person on that stage knows Bern is gonna have the most delegates.
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He knows he has her on the ropes.
he’s the fucking kid with the sniper rifle in the FPS hiding on a rooftop waiting for someone to be exposed.
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And here comes Pete with the attack after someone else’s difficult question.
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Lol at the whole room groaning when Bloomberg throwing out the communism attack.
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I’m a broken record here but every single answer Pete gives is just bullshit platitudes while Biden is talking about real world shit dropping China’s belt and road initiative and actual policies.
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1 minute ago, mdmost said:
The way they raise their hands is interesting. Liz's seems to be I have something to say. Bernie's is like he's hailing a cab or bidding on an item at a live auction.
I go with the head nod after my come out bid at the auction.
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Jesus Pete that was such a bullshit non answer. I feel like he’s said nothing of substance tonight.
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Pete just hanging back waiting for an opening to snipe someone without saying a whole lot about himself.
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Taylormade M4 - 8.5* spun up to 9.25 - UST recoil es 460 - I was so hot and cold with this thing last year. Some days I was crushing it straight and long, just draw and fire. Some days I couldn’t find a fairway, missing both directions.
taylormade burner high launch 3 wood - this is the oldest club in my bag. I keep thinking about replacing it but then I think about hitting a soft fade into a par 5 from 230 and 3 putting for par. It’s easily my most consistent club. Never fails me.
Taylormade burner rescue - another oldie that sticks around because it’s the only club in my bag that I can easily work right to left around corners. Plus it’s my go-to out of the thick Appalachian cabbage when I miss the fairway on a par 5.
titleist AP1s - 4 thru gw(48*) - these have been impatiently waiting to be put into play since I got them in December. Haven’t seen any action yet.
vokey 60* - this used to be my favorite club. I use it for everything inside of 70 yards. I’ve been neglecting the practice with it for a few seasons and it’s been punishing me for it.
i have a 55* sw that is currently a placeholder for 90 yard shots. The early part of this season will be deciding if I’m going to fill the gap between 48 and 60 with just a 54 or 52 & 56.
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538 revised their predicted delegate counts from this morning. Bernie down from 1660 to 1560. Bloomberg jumps Biden at 875 and 865, both up about a hundred. Pete down a bunch to 309. Warren and Klobs both roughly flat 323 & 114.
looks like the major adjustments were SC, NC, VA, TN, AL, AR. All had significant cuts to Bernie and Pete with moderate jumps across the board for Bloomer and a few huge jumps for Biden, some back to pre-Iowa levels.
My guess is they initially over corrected for Biden’s crash after Iowa, forgetting that it’s not at all representative of the rest of the country.
Markets still falling like whoa
in Business and Markets
Posted
Just as long as that doesn’t happen until after the masters.