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Posts posted by heso
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2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:
Lulz at PA being discussed. Philly and Pitt metro areas have basically 0% returning and Pennsyltucky with 100% reporting.
My call for PA last week was that if Trump’s lead at the end of the night is less than 1,000,000 votes then Biden cleans up fairly comfortably tomorrow. It’s gonna take 3.2 or more votes to win PA and trump is only at 1.5.
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2 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:
NC mail-in vote going to be interesting. CBS ran their model, including mail-in, and it was extremely close.
Don’t forget that the mail has been heavily delayed in NC and they have to keep accepting the ballots postmarked today for 9 days
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Are you mother fuckers ready for a fucking tie? It’s 2020 what the duck else did you think was going to happen?
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1 minute ago, HillaryFan420 said:
Looks like Trump will win PA but lose AZ.
Where are you coming up with this? The three most populous counties in PA are all reporting less than 20% of the vote, are all overwhelmingly returning dem results, and are going to add to their totals over the next 48 hours.
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1 minute ago, UTDD said:
I wouldn't give up Michigan as red yet at all. No way.
I’m actually still optimistic about MI and OH. There are still a lot of dem votes to count in both of those places.
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4 minutes ago, HillaryFan420 said:
Looks like Trump will win PA but lose AZ.
PA wont be close to being able to tell a lean for a while.
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This is what we’re going to be looking at tomorrow.
And Trump will be in the lead by a few hundred thousand votes as the mail in ballots get counted. -
Ohio
- Processing: Officials started processing absentee ballots on Oct. 6.
- Counting: Ballots will start being counted at 7:30 p.m. on Election Day.
- Deadline: Mail ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 2 and received no later than Nov. 13.
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9 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:
Ohio’s starting to shrink
Rural counties starting to come in and Cleveland still sitting at 45%, Columbus at 55%, Cincinnati at 49%
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15 minutes ago, SameSame said:
Biden didn’t hit the numbers on the 9 counties around Atlanta like they hoped.
There was also supposedly massive delays in mail in vote returns in the Atlanta areas. Idk if that played into it.
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9 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:
Except if the Democratic counties are counting and the Republican ones aren't it might do the opposite of that wouldn't it?
Maybe. But it seems unlikely that they’ll get 350,000 ballots each processed and scanned in 12-16 hours in philly county and Allegheny County.
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3 minutes ago, The Dog said:
I actually think this will have the opposite effect depending on how efficient the big counties are at counting mail in ballots. Those that choose to do so have been counting ballots since 7am this morning EST.
Yea we’ll see how fast they can get them counted and when they will be releasing the results, but 36% of the mail in ballots are from 3 counties that Hillary won by 16, 21, and 67.
i don’t know how much we’ll get of that tonight but Philly county said they will be releasing the mail-in count in batches starting tonight.
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11 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:
I don't get into politics much, can someone explain why is PA such a fucking shit show? Seems like there's gonna be a lot of controversy surrounding that particular state.
You normally need a valid reason for an absentee ballot. 2016 there were about 225,000 cast statewide. Because of covid, this year you could just request one online. Took 3 minutes. There were over 3 million ballot requests.
when it became clear that the option was being overwhelmingly utilized by Dems and that the counties had no way to count them the day of the election(took a week for the June primary count), it became a political battle. The Dems wanted the ballots to be processed earlier, the GOP wanted to minimize the amount of time that they could collect ballots.
so you have dem controlled counties ready to start processing as soon as they can and gop controlled counties waiting until tomorrow to even start so Trumps lead looks as large as possible on Election Day.
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hopefully this swayed a few fence sitting republicans. He first endorsed Biden a month ago.
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10 minutes ago, Foosters said:
sorry if already discussed, but is there any chance we get a result from PA tonight? I was under impression that we wont know outcome there for awhile.
If Trump’s lead is less than 1,000,000 you can go ahead and call it tonight. The Dems have a little more than that advantage in returned mail in ballots and you can probably pad his lead with a majority of the 260,000 independent MIBs.
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Has anything in Pennsylvania ever turned out ideally in the last 100 years?
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28 minutes ago, Irwin F Fletcher said:
44,292 votes separated Clinton and Trump in 2016 in PA. 3rd party votes accounted for just over 3% of the total at 168,287 votes). If Biden has improved by 120,000 votes in the suburbs I'm feeling a lot more assured.
Most of the rest of the state has gotten redder, some of it significantly redder. It used to be a T with a strong dem lean in the Southwest. It’s now just Pittsburgh, state college and the philly area.
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2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:
I'm pretty sure suppressing Election Day votes is not the best strategy for Republicans.
In an area Trump won 60/35 in 2016.
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11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:
And, take the people putting in a Trump breakfast order and fire them, castigate them and try to make them a non human. That’s what I have learned from reading my betters on this board. If you don’t take this opportunity to cull the herd you are a terrible human being. Just ask brisket. You are a Nazi enabler.
I voted for Biden. if Trump wins I want eggs Benedict. If Biden wins I want a bacon egg and cheese on an everything bagel. See how that works?
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3 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:
It's not that they'll fail to show up and vote. It's that they requested (didn't receive), requested and received but did not mail-in or drop off due to USPS and R fuckery, or requested, received, completed, and mailed in their ballot but it is not showing as accepted.
Rs are banking on people getting fed up with everything and bailing. I think they're wrong - this will happen, but it won't be en masse and not enough to change outcomes.
1.9 million Dems requested mail in ballots. Even if 100% of those returned them successfully, if that’s 65% of the dem vote that’s only 2.9 million votes. 2.9 million won PA last time, but there are more voters and turnout is expected to be higher. Probably takes at least 3.1 if not 3.3 to win PA this year.
There are currently 600k outstanding mail in ballots. 350 dem, 264 rep, 92 ind. excluding the undecided independents that works out to 398k outstanding mail in ballots for dems, vs 264k mail in ballots for gop.
The state comes down more to how well the Dems gotv tomorrow than it does to the remaining mail in ballots.
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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:
Ding ding. I’d file that under no shit.
Yea, but when almost everything is pointing to Biden winning PA, if you’re really searching for a sign that it will go to Trump, that line item in the Monmouth Poll released today is about the only straw to grasp at right now.
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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:
from RedState. They are absolutely convinced they’ve unskewed the polls accurately and Trump is fixing to win bigly.
The assumption is that the Democrats aren’t going to show up tomorrow. The support for that line of thought is that 65% of Dems told pollsters that they planned to vote by mail and only 1.5 million did. If assume that the equivalent portion of Dems vote in person, they end up with 2.4 million total votes. Since only 15% of republicans planned to vote by mail and 500k of them did, it can be argued that there is going to be a massive Trump lead in in-person voting tomorrow.
I think there is some validity to that concern, but it seems more likely that more Dems are going to vote in person that were scared of Trump fighting the mail in ballots.
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27 minutes ago, brakeman said:
Appears to be the audio from this video from 2017 dubbed over that voting video.
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16 minutes ago, C-Man said:
All of my MAGA friends on Facebook are talking about a big Trump win tomorrow. Sheer bravado? Blissful ignorance? Fox/OANN poison? All of the above?
Because none of the math seems to work for 45.
The southern states all stay red, Dems turnout lower than expected in PA after mail in voting, and polls are wrong on Arizona.
its a slim path but 538 has him with a 10% chance.
Their chosen media outlet has them convinced that it’s the most likely outcome because the polls were wrong last time.
also, in their mind, Trump winning with 270 EC means that it was actually a landslide but the Dems couldn’t cheat enough to pull it off.
2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]
in Cloak Room
Posted · Edited by heso
Because the GOP didn’t want them to be counted today.