heso

March right down the field, bring in the 2nd qb and it stalls out.

Fox putting these top games at noon is such shit. I haven’t even had time to get drunk yet.

9 to 1, 5 to 1, close enough. The old get old And the young get stronger May take a week And it may take longer They got the guns But we got the numbers Gonna win, yeah, we're takin' over

I agree with almost all of that, except for not thinking Trump will fix it. The true believers absolutely Trump will fix all of their problems.

I’m not saying it’s a bellwether. I’m using it as an example of a county in PA that has swung from LBJ +50 to Trump +45. There are still more olds registered Dem than gop. In the 65+ age bracket there the ballot returns alone will be positive for Dems while the actual votes are heavily Trump.

Just to throw a little cold water on that tweet about the senior numbers: There are a fair number of older voters registered as democrats that love Trump in PA. Washington county is a perfect example of this. Mondale and Dukakis won Washington county by 18 and 24 points respectively. In 2020 the voter registration for Washington county was D/R/I 59k/65/17. In the 65+ age bracket there are still more registered democrats than republicans. Trump won 72k to 45k. Lost of old school democrats that never changed their party affiliation voting for Trump. It’s a similar story in a lot of western PA but Southwest specifically.

Beat me to it. It’s a way to allow early voting within the constraints of the law that was passed expanding mail in voting in 2019.

There’s technically no early voting in PA, only mail in. But you can go to the county elections office and request a mail in ballot in person, fill it out right there, and then put it into the mail in ballot drop box.

Vibes from the battleground: driving home from work just now in a 50/50 area a car pulled up next to me loudly listening to a Kamala interview. I paused before looking to guess the demographics of the driver. I was wrong. Early 30s white guy. Gave him a thumbs up before I pulled away. I’ll take any positive signs I can get right now in PA.

Which is where a lot of the young male support for Trump is coming from. “The system didn’t hand my the American dream like I was promised. Burn it all down and maybe I’ll be on top in the next one.”

A silver lining on the reddening of PA: the largest age group of republicans in PA is 55-64 followed by 65-74. The largest age group for democrats is 25-34. Every age group except 55-65 and 75+ is larger for Dems over Reps.

That advantage did show up in election results. At its peak it gave Obama the largest MOV in an election in PA since Nixon-McGovern. Before hypothesizing about why the change happened, some numbers: Since 2008, 2,127,861 Pennsylvanians changed their party affiliation thusly: D to R: 633,000 I to D : 372,000 R to D : 366,000 I to R: 289,000 D to I: 272,000 R to I: 196,000 Giving Republicans a gain of 360,000. Unsurprisingly these changes have peaks in election years, the biggest being 2016. Both on a total and percentage basis this has happened in southwestern PA more than any other part of the state. A Democratic stronghold for a century, it’s now a super trumpy area. It was the land of steel mills and coal mines and unions. I wouldn’t be surprised if southwestern PA had the biggest electoral shift in the country over the last 30 years. Politically, PA used to be referred to as a T because southeast and southwest were solid blue. Now Allegheny County is an island in the west. I think this is the single biggest factor in that change: You have a bunch of rural communities that never recovered. Plus a lot of latent racism, and FOX news constantly telling them that big city coastal elites are working against them. Add in that anyone smart enough to go to college gets the fuck out. Then here comes Trump promising to put everything back to the way it used to be. When you have dozens of communities that peaked in the 1930s-60s and Trump is telling them in simple words that he can fix it. Which is borne out in the annual data. 2016 was the largest shift of voter registration. 113k D to R in 2016. The rise of MAGA. It’s been declining since then: 81k in 2020, 71k in 2024. As have shifts in other directions as well. Rural PA, lead by SW PA is making the same shift that SE Ohio and West Virginia are/have made. Dying small towns that are looking for someone to blame. Trump gives them someone to blame.

I meant to say that it *wouldnt* be a stretch for that gender split for fall back a couple of points and flip the state red.

GA was 56% women in 2020. Depending on how Election Day shakes out it would be a stretch for that to slip back low enough to flip the state back to red.

Because women are afraid to speak openly to a pollster but vote alone.

Why are those types of responses even counted?

Not just a communist. She’s a communist, socialist, Marxist, Stalinist, fascist.

Before I got to the second line I thought it was going to be about Fayette county PA and immediately thought “are there any?”

That should make you question all of those poll numbers.

Really feels like a speech to pull disaffected republicans.

Early & absentee numbers Party Voters Who Voted Democratic 1,726,285 Republican 1,466,369 Unaffiliated 1,411,998 Libertarian 21,388 Constitution 2,207 Green 2,008 Voting Method Number of Voters Who Voted Early Voting 3,629,461 Absentee By-Mail 1,001,717 In Person on Election Day 896,815 Provisional 16,025

That was just based on exit polling. Final numbers from the state: Party Voters Who Voted Democratic 1,971,589 Republican 1,822,837 Unaffiliated 1,714,746 Libertarian 29,206 Constitution 3,102 Green 2,538

Final total

2020 was 34-37-30 D-R-I fwiw