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heso

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Posts posted by heso

  1. 4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    https://redstate.com/scotthounsell/2020/11/02/trump-campaign-releases-stunning-predictions-for-pennsylvania-election-day-n274074
     

    from RedState. They are absolutely convinced they’ve unskewed the polls accurately and Trump is fixing to win bigly. 

    The assumption is that the Democrats aren’t going to show up tomorrow. The support for that line of thought is that 65% of Dems told pollsters that they planned to vote by mail and only 1.5 million did. If assume that the equivalent portion of Dems vote in person, they end up with 2.4 million total votes. Since only 15% of republicans planned to vote by mail and 500k of them did, it can be argued that there is going to be a massive Trump lead in in-person voting tomorrow. 

    I think there is some validity to that concern, but it seems more likely that more Dems are going to vote in person that were scared of Trump fighting the mail in ballots. 

  2. 16 minutes ago, C-Man said:

    All of my MAGA friends on Facebook are talking about a big Trump win tomorrow. Sheer bravado? Blissful ignorance? Fox/OANN poison? All of the above?

    Because none of the math seems to work for 45.

    The southern states all stay red, Dems turnout lower than expected in PA after mail in voting, and polls are wrong on Arizona. 

    its a slim path but 538 has him with a 10% chance. 

    Their chosen media outlet has them convinced that it’s the most likely outcome because the polls were wrong last time. 

    also, in their mind, Trump winning with 270 EC means that it was actually a landslide but the Dems couldn’t cheat enough to pull it off. 

  3. 7 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

    They addressed on CNN this AM.  You can go in and invalidate your ballot and vote in person.

    You just show up to your polling place. The record will show that you requested an absentee ballot. You fill out a provisional ballot. Those get counted last and are cross referenced to make sure the person’s vote wasn’t already counted. 

  4. 1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

    1. Biden can't outlaw fracking on non-federal lands

    2. there isn't much federal land in PA (see below that big red piece in the NW portion has zero O&G under it)

    3. Energy Prices wouldn't skyrocket EVEN if federal land fracking was banned. 

    4. In conclusion, Trump is a moron

     

    1280px-Map_of_all_U.S._Federal_Land.jpg

    Trying to ban fracking on that federal land in PA will set up a major court battle. 95% of the subsurface/mineral rights on that land are privately owned. And it’s definitely heavily (sort of) drilled for gas. Was previously drilled for oil and the major reason the subsurface rights are privately held is because that was a major oil producing region when it became a national forest. 

  5. 45 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    Elections have never been a football game with a clock running down to 0. They’re a baseball game that is over when it’s over.

    no one credible in PA is saying to not count those votes. I haven’t heard anyone in the courts or DOJ say that mail in ballots are less than in person. I do hope that we don’t have morons in PA that wait days to finish the count.  It’s also BS that the large PA counties are not finding the budget to do this work faster. 

    as for Trump attempting to burn down America as he goes out? 100% he is and will. But this is a consequence of people voting for him (or Gary Johnson) in 2016.

    The two biggest counties in the state, Allegheny and Philadelphia are starting the count at 7:00am Tuesday. Those two counties account for almost 1/3 of the mail in votes in the state. I’m sure they are doing everything they can to get the count done as quickly as possible but at the end of the day they have to feed the ballots into a machine to count the votes so they can only go as fast as the machines they have will allow. 

    The other thing to keep in mind is that they have to keep accepting and counting ballots for 3 days as long as they have a Tuesday post mark. So some people may think PA has 3 days to count the votes, there is no time limit (as far as I know) on counting. The time limit is on how long they can receive legally cast ballots. 

    it took a week to count the primary votes. 

  6. 14 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

     

    The Post-Gazette's once liberal editorial tone shifted more conservative following the 2018 consolidation of its editorial department with that of longtime sister newspaper The Blade of Toledo, Ohio, and the appointment of that paper's editorial page editor Keith Burris, a frequent defender of Donald Trump, to direct the editorial pages of both papers.[3] Burris assumed the additional position of executive editor of the Post-Gazette in 2019.

  7. Where did the concept of the shy trump voter come from? It seems like it has to be nothing more than a creation of the trumpers to allow them to square their insistence of a trump landslide with polling that shows anything but that landslide.

    the polling underrepresented the uneducated whites in 2016. That makes sense and the polls claim that they’ve accounted for that (I’m hoping that they over corrected by a couple points). 

    So we’re to believe that there is 5-6% of polled respondents are either embarrassed to admit or intentionally being deceptive about voting for Trump?

    Seems like bullshit. 

    • Hook 'Em 4
  8. 2 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

    Franklin's star is fading as well.  

    Losing to Indiana will do that. Tough when you win 11 games in 3 of 4 years but you’re consistently the 2nd best team in the division. 

    What coach out there is going to suddenly be able to make you better than Ohio state? 

  9. 1 minute ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

    Maybe I'm overthinking this, but forgive me, there's been a lot of Thirsty Goats drank in my house today. Should we be cheering for Ohio St tonight? If we assume it's fine if Ohio goes red, but we really need Pennsylvania to stay blue, I don't want the people of Pennsylvania to have any happy feelings before Tuesday. I don't want any thoughts of "Maybe Trump isn't so bad. He did bring back Big 10 football after all" creeping them into their heads. I want them as miserable as the rest of us going into Tuesday and looking for change.

    You’re overthinking it. I went to penn state. I’m drunk. The football team lost to Indiana for only the second time ever last week and looks really bad tonight. I won’t believe Trump loses PA until Biden’s inauguration. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  10. 22 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

    Ahh it’s doom and gloom time!

    Starts at 7:00 PM on the weekends.

    I turned on the psu-osu game thinking it started at 8:00. Thought I was watching the opening kickoff. Look down and realize it’s halfway through the 1st and osu just scored to make it 14-0. 

    Chug the rest of that beer. Crack a new one.

    I’m locked in on doom and gloom for the night. 

  11. 1 hour ago, heso said:

    There are just over 9 million registered voters in PA this year. 2016 turnout of registered voters was 70% and is expected to be a little higher this year. Call it 73%.

    Thats 6,571,460 total votes expected. 1/3 of those will be mail in ballots, split 66/25/8 D/R/I. 

    Assuming the polling average is right, look for Trump to be up in the neighborhood of 850,000 votes before the mail in ballots come in and then Biden come back to win by 350k. 

    By my fuzzy gorilla math, it’s possible for Biden to overcome as much as a 1.2 million vote deficit on election night, but realistically, anything more than a million seems highly unlikely. 

  12. 1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

    so i haven't spent much time on this thread, but what's everyone's schedule for grabbing this vaccine?  will it be ready on election day, or maybe a sneak peak the night before, like how movie theaters do it?

    in all seriousness, even though i was told there was a decent chance that one would be ready by election day, it seemed to be outrageous that i would even suggest one wouldn't be widely available by the end of the year.  so with that said, let me make a bold prediction - once trump loses the election, operation warp speed will neither be warpy nor speedy.

    even though he's not supposed to have any influence over these govt agencies working with the pharma companies to get a vaccine ready, i kinda feel like a successful vaccine coming out right around the time biden is getting sworn in, is not exactly the look trump is going for.  i'm looking forward to them "slowing the testing vaccine down please."

    is he that childish and petty?

    yes.

    My hope is to have it in my veins by the 2021 masters. 

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