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Posts posted by heso
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21 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:
Jack Nicklaus can go fuck himself. (Note - rich, white old man from Ohio and now living in Florida who is voting for Trump ain’t exactly shocking.)
I always was more of an Arnold Palmer guy.
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Looks like we’re gonna come close to breaking the single-day new case count on a Wednesday.
We haven’t had a Wednesday increase higher than the previous Friday since July 8th.
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52 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:
Eh, I don't think it'll be enough votes to swing the election.
I doubt it will be. But right now there are over a million outstanding mail in ballots that are more than 2-1 dem. Now a lot of those will come in over the next week, and some will be canceled and people will cast a provisional at the poll on Tuesday, and some will go unreturned. But it’s still a lot of ballots right now.
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9 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:
My county sent out ~278,000 ballots and has gotten back ~188,000 as of today and it is strongly Democratic so hopefully these people are ballot boxing.
Where did you get the county data? I saw that Allegheny had 250k returned as of a couple days ago but I couldn’t find much more than that
Statewide mail in ballot requests were 3 million, broken down 63.1% D, 25.2% R, 11.6% I.
62% have been returned so far as of an article this morning.
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Biden is going to have to get it done without PA. They are going to do whatever they can to trim the number of mail in ballots:
Pennsylvania election officials ordered to keep late mail ballots separate
WASHINGTON — Pennsylvania officials have notified the U.S. Supreme Court that the Secretary of the Commonwealth issued guidance to county boards of election directing them “to securely segregate all mail-in and civilian absentee ballots received between 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, and 5:00 p.m. on Friday, November 6, 2020, from all other voted ballots.”
The cutoff under Pennsylvania law for receiving mail in ballots to count is 8 p.m. A state Supreme Court ruling extended that to 5 p.m. on Nov. 6 but that extension is under court challenge. Republicans are asking the Supreme Court to declare that order unconstitutional.
Republicans asked that, at a minimum, late ballots be kept separate. The state took the action today on its own.
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Shit like this is what has me concerned, not pessimistic, just concerned about PA:
A Pennsylvania election official told CNN that counties are "strongly encouraged" to begin their work on the absentee ballots at 7 a.m. But even if they don't, the official said the public would still have a good idea of what mail-in ballots are still outstanding at the time polls close and the party affiliation of those ballots. Counties can begin reporting the results at 8 p.m. after the polls close.
Each county has a different plan for how to process mail-in ballots, which are expected to hit record numbers as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
That includes Erie County, which swung toward Trump in 2016 and plans to begin counting in-person votes when the polls close at 8 p.m., followed by tabulating absentee ballots around 11 p.m., according to Carl Anderson III, the chair of the Erie Board of Elections. Erie is planning to stop counting ballots around 2 a.m. on November 4 and restart later that morning.
Anderson said there's a concern if the mail-in ballots are reported first, the results "out of the gate could look pretty skewed," because those votes were expected to be heavily Democratic, based on ballots requested, and the county was trying to mitigate that effect.
Republican-run Cumberland County, which is outside Harrisburg, plans to report results from the polls only beginning at 8 p.m., and will not begin counting mail-in ballots until the following morning, according to Samantha Krepps, a spokeswoman for the county.
"On Election Day we will report the poll numbers, but we have three days to start the canvassing of the mail-in ballot. So, we took the opportunity to focus our attention on the election at the polls and then we will switch gears the next day," Krepps told CNN. "It's just a matter of getting the job done and we are focusing our attention on the polls because they are the most important thing on Election Day."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/early-voting-ballot-count-pennsylvania-2020/index.html
Pa is setting up to turn into a Supreme Court battle over mail in ballots. Counties waiting until the day after the election to even begin counting mail in ballots is just screaming for fuckery.
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9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:
Why are people so stupid?
Imagine that inflection point on the chart if Trump had gotten out of the hospital and said “Covid is no joke. I had it. Thankfully I had a medical team that took great care of me and I’m feeling great now. But we need to be careful. We need to mask up and distance. Open up where we can but we need to be cautious and careful. Wear your masks. We’ve got some promising vaccines in the works and some great therapeutics but we’re headed into winter and we all need to do what’s best for our countrymen. Let’s get through this by working together.”
Obviously you can’t imagine that because trump is a soulless sack of shit. But just image how many more people are going to get sick and die because of his inability to lead in that one single moment.
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I was more worried about this issue a few months ago.
Every day he tells people in states with major outbreaks that they need to open up. It’s all going away. It’s your terrible democrat governors keeping you locked up. They need to open up. It’s no big deal. We have a cure to treat you if you catch it and your kids will be fine in no time at all if they get sick. Don’t be worried. All your struggles are the fault of the democrats that just want to keep everything shut down to hurt my reelection. Open up.-
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3 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:
Yep. I’ll also add a lot of people that never got into politics are really upset with lockdowns and traditional nonVoters are breaking for Trump in FL. Like the not so small Latino community that makes a living in dining/hospitality...throw in Latino radio getting hit hard w conspiracy theories and we’ve got a problem...
Like the divorced parent trying to win their teenage kids’ affection by allowing them to have their friends over to drink, Trump gives the people who don’t like the lockdowns what they want now, regardless of the long term consequences.
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1 minute ago, Beau Vine said:
You watch, by Easter we’ll be in the clear. I NEVER SAID EASTER 2020!
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This is the map I feel the most comfortable working from right now.
Biden needs to win at least one of these coin flips. Arizona alone gets him to 270 and some sort of Supreme Court battle scenario. Iowa alone isn’t enough. I have no faith in Ohio or Georgia. So PA and NC making the flip along with AZ sure would be great but I don’t have NEARLY the confidence level that a lot of you have right now.Arizona alone plus a sweep for Trump in Neb gives us the tie maximum chaos scenario.
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Just got this text message from my sister in bucks county pa about taking her 5 year old son with her to vote.
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46 minutes ago, thepop said:
RCP sure is putting a lot of weight into these republican pollsters. Florida is now in Trumps column and all races are generally narrower. They’re either way off or they’re the only ones correct.
Yea I was just looking over their polling averages and feel a lot less comfortable than I did before I got there. AZ at Biden +2.4 and PA +3.8 are not what I want to see, regardless of who is doing the polling. PA at less than 4% just screams for the GOP to fuck with it.
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On 10/24/2020 at 12:13 AM, The Ace of Aces said:
I’m pretty drunk but just need to say fuck this dude and I’m throwing a party when his ass is kicked out of office in January so if anyone wants free booze amd 😋PA-brew beer that’s not that Yuengling swill come visit me in PA. Bring snow shovels and parkas.
Which side of the state?
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Ball is fucking down
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That’s a clean hit
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6 hours ago, Lobo said:
I really am starting to think 3rd party/other turnout in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are going to make a difference on way or the other.
I don't have my mind around the maths yet and I do not hear any single credible news source discussing their numbers.
Laugh at them all you want, but people not named Clinton nor Trump accounted for well over 7.6mm votes in 2016. That's a lot.
I only know Jo Jorgensen because she's atop my old party's ticket. I literally have no idea who is running on the Green Party, Constitution Party, nor Reform Party. And I always know the names of those tickets. Plus there is no true independent with name recognition this time around like Evan McMullin. And the consensus on what states Kanye West is listed on the ballot of, remains a total fucking mystery. Ballotpedia (which can be manipulated on a daily basis) says he's on 12 state ballots. The battleground states being: Iowa, Louisiana, and Colorado. the rest of his states are comfortably hard red or named Vermont.
I am honestly projecting (and this isn't with much research) that candidates not named Biden or Trump in 2020, will account for no more than 3 million votes. Far less than half of what they did as an aggregate in 2016.
Polling average for the last few weeks of polls in PA that list the minor party candidates show Biden at 50, trump at 44, Jojo at 1%
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1 hour ago, DCA_HORN said:
since nukes are off the tableWhy is this?
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5 hours ago, yoladu said:
WTF?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/22/politics/mitch-mcconnell-bruised-hands/index.html
McConnell says 'no concerns' despite visible bandages and bruises
That’s a motherfucking zombie if I’ve ever seen one.
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And to just further exemplify part of the reason that fracking isn’t all that popular in PA.
The 500,000 acre Allegheny national forest is now dotted with this shit.
One of my favorite camping trips as a child was going backpacking in what seemed like an endless expanse of wilderness every year.
This is the fracking that Biden is talking about when he’s talking about ending fracking on federal land.-
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10 minutes ago, heso said:
This is not surprising to anyone in Pennsylvania that doesn’t own land with gas wells.
To piggy back off my own comment a bit. It’s underwater because the benefit that a lot of people were convinced was coming to the state didn’t materialize like they thought.
To touch on something that were pointed out by someone else a few days ago, there aren’t these hundreds of thousands of jobs that Trump claims and that people were told were coming. Most of the drilling crews are out of Texas.
Secondly, the Republican state government at the time was either duped or complicit in becoming the only state that doesn’t have a gas severance tax. They charge a 1 time fee to drill the well. So now years later the money to the state and local governments is dwindling as fewer wells are being drilled but production is at an all time high. A lot of the profit is leaving the state and going to Range Resources and the like.
Then you have the majority of people who care more about the environmental impacts more than than they give a shit about some yokel who happened to be lucky enough to be sitting on a couple hundred acres of rural land that no one wanted to do anything with because it was too steep and rocky for farmland and too remote for anything else.
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11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:
“I’m gonna bring back coal.”
Not that they’re honest, but ask the folks in coal country about how many jobs have been brought back.
None but the people that bought that bullshit are now just happy with trump owning the libs. Because if they’re gonna be fucked either way, they might as well get to bring back racism
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10 minutes ago, David Dennison said:
Not an unimportant point.
This is not surprising to anyone in Pennsylvania that doesn’t own land with gas wells.
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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]
in Cloak Room
Posted
Or when he gets shorted on the bill after the work is done.