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It’s to try to peel back some of the suburban moms that they lost to Dobbs.

PA voter registration deadline was last Monday 10/21. Mail in ballot request deadline is tomorrow.

Where does the .4 expected independent margin for Harris come from? Is that expecting independents to break 70-30 for Harris? That seems like an absurdly ridiculous number unless I’m missing some poll showing them breaking that high? Biden won independents 52-44 in pa. Am I just regarded?

Non college educated men 18-29 is the lowest voter turnout demographic by far. They are putting everything they can into trying to get them to vote. And because they are mostly dumb shitbags, they don’t need a single policy to benefit those people. They just need to give them someone to mock. The single most common ad by far (at least in PA) is about tax payer funded gender affirming surgeries for trans inmates. Federal trans inmates is ~1200 people (don’t quote me on that but that’s the number I found when I tried to look it up). Based on Republican advertising, the single biggest issue in our country is whether or not gender affirming surgery is considered a medically necessary procedure for, at the absolute maximum, 1200 federal inmates. The closing line of that ad is really what it boils down to “Kamala Harris is for they/them. Donald Trump is for you.” That what the entire message of the campaign is about. Not a single bit of substance of any kind. Just division. You are American and everyone that’s different from you is ruining your America. Anyone that represents them can’t possibly represent you.

Based on every decision I’ve seen them make, every ad they’re running, the podcasts they have him on, the crypto events they have him at, it’s 18-45 white males. They are tying to turnout low information, low turnout, white bros. They are pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into trying to get low turnout, bros to vote. It’s the only demographic they have any room to grow with. What do dumb white bros love? Punching down at everyone they see as inferior to them? So they make fun of minorities, and women, and gays, and trans. It’s a constant refrain of DEI making it harder for you. It’s mocking the libtard snowflakes. Trump is their god because he’s everything they wish they could be. Able to do and say whatever the fuck they want to anyone and about anyone with no repercussions. Because they’re too stupid to realize the difference between them and him.

There was a 7 or 8 year old dressed as Trump at my daughter’s school’s trunk or treat last week. Ear bandage and everything. Running around like a fucking spaz. I resisted the urge to trip him.

I’m not convinced GA and AZ are leaning right now. I think they are legit tossups. If I was going to lean GA it’d be blue

I’m starting to feel like this is the map right now.

My neighbor’s daughter is neighbors with the guy that died. Was him dying part of the staging? Because he is very much dead.

2020 gender gaps (all leads for women): GA - 12 NC - 12 MI - 8 PA - 7 AZ - 4 NV - 4 WI - 0

The DA, Ray Gricar. Pretty crazy story. He was the Centre county DA from 1985-2005. He looked into the Sandusky case in 1998 and declined to press charges. On the surface that seems to be the only connection to that. In 2004 he announces he’s not going to see reelection for DA and will retire at the end of 2005. In April 2005 he calls his girlfriend who he lives with at the time and says he’s on his way home. He never shows up and she reports him missing that night. The next day his car is found near a bridge in the opposite direction from his house from where he told his gf he was. Side note that his brother disappeared in ohio 9 years earlier, his car found near a river. His body his found in the river a week later and his death ruled a suicide. It’s noted that his car smells like cigarettes despite him not being a smoker. His county cell phone is in the car but his keys, wallet, and laptop are missing. Cops say that the scent dog’s behavior indicates that he may have gotten into another car. 3 Months later fishermen find his laptop in the river with the hard drive missing. 2 months after that someone finds the hard drive on the bank of the river 100 yards away but it’s badly water damaged. FBI and secret service try unsuccessfully to pull anything from the hard drive. Police reveal that shortly before he disappears someone uses the home computer at his GF’s house where he lives to search “how to fry a hard drive” and “water damage to notebook computer”. His GF and her daughter take and pass polygraphs. He’s never seen or heard from again. Popular foul play theories about the mysterious death of an assistant US attorney (Jonathan Luna) he was investigating, his decision to not press charges against Sandusky, a heroin ring he had recently assisted in busting, his GF having him killed for some reason. Another theory is that he wanted to disappear. He allegedly expressed interest in a Cleveland police chief who disappeared to start a new life. He was fluent in Slovenian and had made trips to visit relatives who lived in Slovenia.

And that’s exactly why he’s a dumbass. If he does any/all of the things that you listed, it’s a complete non story. But because he acts like an indignant asshat about it, he makes it an even bigger story. In short, James Franklin has less awareness that internet message board assholes.

Add one more to the PA firewall for my wife.

31 points with 83 yards of offense.

When you pray, do not be like the hypocrites, for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and on the street corners to be seen by others. When you pray, go into your room, close the door and pray to your Father, who is unseen.

I understand that those counties were representative of the statewide margin. The eastern half of PA shifted massively blue last election. The western half shifted slightly red other than Pittsburgh and Erie. Westmoreland, Washington, and Butler county go from Pittsburgh suburbs on one side to hillbilly maga on the other side. I’m very curious to see how those counties swing.

I’d love to see the numbers from Westmoreland, Washington, or Lancaster counties before I get too excited about those numbers. I expect she’ll do fine on the eastern 1/3 of the state. I’m more concerned about the western half.

One of my favorite times of the year is when the Mexican grocery up here wheels out the big chile roaster. But this green chile pork stew? I need that in my life.

Then it can’t sink him. If it could and he was offered to pay to make it go away, Elon would have bought it.

Nevada comes into play if Trump wins Arizona. If Trump wins Arizona, assuming Harris wins WI & MI, Harris cant win with GA or NC alone. They only get her to 267. In the scenario her winning NV & Trump winning AZ, she can win with any one of PA, NC, or GA.

From what I saw earlier over there they are using 2020 as a point of reference where mail in voting massively skewed towards the dems as the basis for their calculations. But they were blind to 2022 being much less skewed and a more likely representation of this election.

I saw a study a few years ago that showed right leaning voters are more motivated by fear based messaging and prefer more authoritarian leaders while left leaning voters are more motivated by optimistic or hopeful messaging and prefer more democratic leaders. Im pretty sure it was a global study but it was a while ago and might have just been a US study.

It’s just inflation and nothing else. Things cost more when Biden was president and less when Trump was president. There is no thought beyond the surface level of that metric. No ability to comprehend why even if they had the desire to understand what happened. maybe sprinkle in a little misogyny.

Just like they went in no lube on 3-4 Kentucky and 1-6 Ms St?