Jump to content

heso

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    2554
  • Joined

Posts posted by heso

  1. Taylormade M4 - 8.5* spun up to 9.25 - UST recoil es 460 - I was so hot and cold with this thing last year. Some days I was crushing it straight and long, just draw and fire. Some days I couldn’t find a fairway, missing both directions. 

    taylormade burner high launch 3 wood - this is the oldest club in my bag. I keep thinking about replacing it but then I think about hitting a soft fade into a par 5 from 230 and 3 putting for par. It’s easily my most consistent club. Never fails me.

    Taylormade burner rescue - another oldie that sticks around because it’s the only club in my bag that I can easily work right to left around corners. Plus it’s my go-to out of the thick Appalachian cabbage when I miss the fairway on a par 5. 

    titleist AP1s - 4 thru gw(48*) - these have been impatiently waiting to be put into play since I got them in December. Haven’t seen any action yet. 

    vokey 60* - this used to be my favorite club. I use it for everything inside of 70 yards. I’ve been neglecting the practice with it for a few seasons and it’s been punishing me for it. 

    i have a 55* sw that is currently a placeholder for 90 yard shots. The early part of this season will be deciding if I’m going to fill the gap between 48 and 60 with just a 54 or 52 & 56. 

  2. 538 revised their predicted delegate counts from this morning. Bernie down from 1660 to 1560. Bloomberg jumps Biden at 875 and 865, both up about a hundred. Pete down a bunch to 309. Warren and Klobs both roughly flat 323 & 114.

    looks like the major adjustments were SC, NC, VA, TN, AL, AR. All had significant cuts to Bernie and Pete with moderate jumps across the board for Bloomer and a few huge jumps for Biden, some back to pre-Iowa levels.

    My guess is they initially over corrected for Biden’s crash after Iowa, forgetting that it’s not at all representative of the rest of the country. 

  3. Mitch McConnell on the 395 house bills that are stalled in the senate:

    "It is true," the senator said. "They've been on full left-wing parade over there, trotting out all of their left-wing solutions that are going to be issues in the fall campaign. They're right. We're not going to pass those."

  4. 3 minutes ago, Pasken said:

    Seems like the next candidate most likely to withdraw is Warren but seems like if you stay in until South Carolina then you might as well stay in until Super Tuesday. 

    I expect everyone that’s made it this far is in until Super Tuesday. Warren could drop if the rumors are true that the campaign is running out of cash. It’s going to take a lot of money to compete in those states. I saw a graphic the other day that I think said Bloomberg has already spent $150 million in Super Tuesday states. Steyer was north of $20 million. Everyone else very little to none. Bernie has plenty of money and the momentum. Biden will be in the fight unless he gets waxed in SC. 

    super Tuesday is where we’ll find out if Pete and Klobs are for real or just products of good campaigning in the early states. 

  5. 8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

    The hope is that as people drop out that voters for the drop-outs go to the delegate leader. That's my hope, at least.

    If we are going to have a peaceful, unified convention, a clear leader is the best way to get there. If we can't get a first-ballot majority, then a 10+ point plurality then a 2nd round coronation is the next best thing.

    I think a lot of it depends on who drops out and when. I think when Biden and Steyer drop the bulk of their votes go to Bloomberg. 

    The big wildcard will be how Warren and Klobs fare up to and on Super Tuesday. I think whenever one of them drops the votes go to the other and where they go from there depends on which one drops first. 

    I think we’re going to have a 3 horse race between Bernie, Bloomberg, and Pete. 

    • Like 1
  6. 10 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

    On 538's primary model, "nobody wins a majority of delegates" just passed Sanders.  Highest probability so far of a contested convention.

    The main factor will be when people drop out and where those votes go when they do. Their predictor has everyone staying in the race to the end. I think at least a couple drop out after Super Tuesday. Their model also massively underestimated Klobuchar in NH. It projected her 5th with 1 delegate. It was reasonably accurate with Bernie and Pete (avg projection of 11 and 9 delegates). 

  7. Just now, wildcat09 said:

    I figured we'd have seen some more instances of Trump fans mailing bombs to Democrats than we've seen so far, but other than that it's gone about as I've expected. I also expect it to get much worse pretty quickly, particularly if the economy gets worse.

    They’ve been winning bigly. Wait until they start losing to expect chaos. 

  8. 1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

    The election meltdown on here is going to be glorious 

    I was just thinking that. 2016 was a thing of grotesque beauty, a sort of jolie laide. The next 10 months are going to be off the charts. 

  9. 28 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    I would still classify any state that had a 3 or 4 point margin or less as a swing state

    Michigan - 0.3
    New Hampshire - 0.4
    Wisconsin - 1
    Pennsylvania - 1.2
    Florida - 1.2
    Minnesota - 1.5
    Nevada - 2.4
    Maine - 2.7
    North Carolina - 3.8
    Arizona - 3.9

    Those are the 10 states that make or break the 2020 election. 

    You can't call Pennsylvania a swing state but not Florida - the margin was exactly the same. 

    Biden was the only chance PA had at beating Trump. Before they all saw that his mind has turned to mush.

    The best play the Dems have in PA is to play ads highlighting Bloomberg’s racism. That’s going to be seen as a positive in most counties. 

  10. 46 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

    It comes down to what the swing states think of Sanders vs what they think of the moderate and I believe Sanders does quite well in places like Michigan.

    In the most recent Michigan general election polling I could find everyone beats trump ranked thusly:

    bloomberg 

    biden 

    sanders

    Buttigieg

    Warren

    no one else was named in the poll. 

    It should be noted that in that poll Sanders had the highest direct support, but when Bloomberg was the candidate Trump had the lowest direct support with the highest undecided.

    Buttigieg had the highest number of people that didn’t recognize the name (30%) followed by Bloomberg (16%). Trump and Sanders were the only two that had 0% “do not recognize”  

    Edit: Poll is from a month ago. I expect everyone in Michigan has been bombarded with Bloomberg ads since then. We certainly have in PA. Every tv channel and radio station. 

    • Like 1
  11. FWIW

    A lady in Pittsburgh that’s currently quarantined for two weeks after coming home from what was supposed to be a 3 month* trip to a village in China:

    “My friends in China had friends who worked in the hospital and said ‘These numbers you’re seeing aren’t the truth. It’s much worse. These crematoriums in Wuhan are burning 24/7.’”

  12. 34 minutes ago, Js1 said:

     

     

    Just on the surface this graphic is bullshit. If you’re going to make an infographic to visualize data, at least make an attempt to make it somewhat accurate. That non-voter section should be less than half the size of Hillary’s section. There was a 40k increase in turnout to Hillary’s 95k votes. When you can’t even get that basic part right, it probably means your voodoo formulas are probably bullshit too. 

  13. 4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

    That sounds great, but as long as employers use a degree as a hiring metric, demand for a college degree is only going to increase.

    And employers outside of trades with specific non-college training aren’t going to stop using a degree as a hiring metric. It’s a simple indicator of baseline skills: communication, critical thinking, problem solving, writing, etc. No not everyone that has a four year degree excels in all of those areas and one can certainly excel in those areas without a degree, but using it as a filter is going to be pretty effective. 

×
×
  • Create New...