Everything posted by heso
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SEC Catch-all Thread
Who is more upset that he called OSU’s stadium the big house, UM or OSU?
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July 4th Hill Country Flooding Tragedy
I don’t think you have to take camp mystic out of the mix. A warning system that gives them even 30 minutes notice turns into hours downstream. This is 8100 ft upstream from camp mystic. As an absolute last resort a warning from this point could have given them 15 minutes notice that the flood was on their doorstep instead of realizing it’s already in the cabin. And this is 6.5 miles upstream. Perfectly reasonable place to collect usable data to provide advance notice of the impending flood. According to one article I saw the acting night watchman at the camp said he tried to check river water gauges and said several were broken or not returning data. The noaa website doesn’t show any active gauges on the south fork, so that may be true. All the more reason to take extra precautions. But also, if that is the case, it seems like it’d be known well in advance that there aren’t any functioning gauges on the south fork, so what is he checking for? But it’s 2025. How hard is it to figure out that if we get so many inches of rain in a given period the river is going to flood. My fucking dad can tell me right now how much rain fell at his house in the last hour in 15 minute increments without leaving his living room. All this to say, that it seems beyond negligent for a county that has thousands of kids camping and thousands more people living on a river that is known to have catastrophic floods to have never bothered to maintain a monitoring and warning system.
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July 4th Hill Country Flooding Tragedy
You keep trying to make all natural disasters have similar safety plans. A flash flood isn’t a hurricane where you’ve got days notice to pack your shit and drive away because you need to avoid a 500 mile wide storm. It’s not the same as a tornado where you need to get into a solid internal structure because the building might collapse around you and you don’t know if it’s going to level your street or a few blocks over. It’s trying to not get fucking swept away by a river in a known location with little warning. You don’t have to drive 25 miles to get away from it. You have to get 50’ up hill as quickly as possible. The scenario where someone in Japonica Estates needs to avoid getting swept away by the river is the get in their car and drive or run 0.25 miles in either direction to the closest uphill road. They don’t need to make it out of the area, they need to get slightly uphill as fast as possible. You’re not driving around in it trying to go somewhere. You’re just trying to not be in the river.
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July 4th Hill Country Flooding Tragedy
From the account I read, that seemed to be the closest point of relief after girls were already climbing out of cabin windows and had to cross various depths of water to get there. Most of them were trying to shelter in place on the top bunks until the water broke the door in and they had no choice but to find a way out.
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July 4th Hill Country Flooding Tragedy
I kind of hate the feeling of estimating this since we have no idea what the situation on the ground was like that night. But looking at Google earth the bubble inn is 60 feet from a steep hill. The other close by cabins are closer to the hill. In a straight line the hill climbs 80 feet in 250 feet from the front door of the cabin. It looks like there is a path of some sort that climbs that hill. Even with pretty generous switchbacking it climbs the hill in 0.2 of a mile. I don’t know a damn thing about running a summer camp, and almost nothing about the Texas hill country, but it seems that if you’re going to have a camp in a designated floodway of one of the most flash flood prone areas in the world, you’d at least consider “if shit goes sideways, how much time do we need to get these kids up the hill?” It sure as shit seems to me that the protocol should have been “if we hear the (nonexistent) siren, we need to get these girls to high ground in <X minutes.” I have no clue what the situation on the ground was like that night. I don't know what time it started raining. I don’t know what the forecast was the day before. But if flash floods are a risk, if you have children sleeping in a floodway, and there is any rain in the forecast, how is the plan not put in place with escalations planned out. At minimum, the girls have their rain coats and shoes at the ready. Someone or more keeping close watch on the radar / weather alerts / upstream river gauges. Then if x amounts of rain falls or river level increases by x amount, we wake the girls in the lowlands and get them to a central location. If the alarm sounds we have X minutes to get to x height. There’s a good chance my math is wrong here, but if a flash flood wave is traveling at 9 ft/s, a warning gauge a mile and a half upstream would provide 15 minutes of warning that shit is about to absolutely hit the fan.
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July 4th Hill Country Flooding Tragedy
I can’t believe we’re debating if sirens based on upstream water levels could have been effective at reducing the death toll. Take the account of the family from the TM article. They woke up to their house on stilts surrounded by water unable to leave the building. And then moments later it got ripped from its footing. You don’t think a siren would have warned them earlier? How much time would they have needed to not be in a house floating down the river? Would they have said “it’ll never make it up this high” and stayed? Maybe. But at least someone could have been awake and looking at the river before they were on an island. There have been so many accounts of people waking up to the room they are in full of water.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
One of the guys in my regular 4some changes putters more than any club in his bag trying to find something that works for him. Maybe a lab would help him, but I’m of the opinion that picking a putter and putting in some legitimate focused practice with it would help more than spending a bunch of money. But I’ve also never bought a putter. A friend of mine gave me a Cleveland copy of an 8802 that he found on the course that no one ever came back to claim. One year I was frustrated with my putter and was thinking about changing it, spent an hour or so at the practice green a couple times a week for a couple months and changed my approach to putting on the course, took my putting average from 37 to 32.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
I was very happy to see him miss the cut. There are so few courses that can punish the holes in his game because he can overpower almost any course. 2 rounds at Portrush and I won’t have to see him until next years masters. Now I just need YouTube’s algorithm to stop trying to get me to watch him.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
I wasn’t rooting for Spaun at the start of the day, but really impressive to grit through that start and have the resolve to push through the conditions after the restart while everyone else wilted.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
Burns should have stomped around like that in front of the rules officials if that’s accurate because his feet definitely weren’t splashing anything close to that.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
And just like that he’s in wet knee high fescue.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
But if we’re looking at a playoff tomorrow anyway because it’ll get dark, let’s make it a full 18.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
Rahm is in the clubhouse at +4 laughing his ass off.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
Wasn’t entirely serious with that question, but seeming more and more like gritting out even par would be a pretty good place to be.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
Announcer said they could absorb about a 2 hour delay. They’ll have been delayed for about 1:45 if they restart as expected.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
I’m not sure it’ll be that soon. I’m northwest of Oakmont and it’s still pouring here. The storm is moving kind of weird for the area where the overall storm is moving west to east but it’s spreading out east to west. 5 minutes before it started rainy here there was a less that 10% chance of rain. The radar is pretty unreliable right now.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
That’s a blink for everyone. No one wants to step up. Is the winner gonna be under par at this point?
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
Bogey on 1 - drive it into the right rough, hacked 100 yards to the left rough, ran it on to the left side of the green, 30’ putt from the left fringe with 15 feet of break to 3’. Bogey on 2 was a perfect flighted sand wedge that hit the flag stick and rolled back 50 yards.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
Brutal for Spaun
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
Rory had good looks at birdie on 3, 4, 5, 12, and 15 that he couldn’t convert, in addition to the 5 birdies he did make. There is a low number out there for someone to step up and take it.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
Early watching seems like you can hit a lot of greens because the balls aren’t running/bouncing off the fairways into the rough, but the putts are still hard to pay off.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
Rory hit 3i
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
Rory could be -5 on the day if he could putt.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
Gotta make the birdie at 17 and make sure you don’t give it back at 18.
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2025 US Open @ Oakmont
He’s had a couple slip ups, most notably the tee shot on 3 that could have been in real trouble on the far side of the church pews but it was so bad that he ended up on a great spot on the 4th fairway. He’s had a couple others like that. But every time he’s actually gotten into a bad spot he’s got it back into position and paid off the par. It’s been really impressive with how much everyone else has given some back in those spots.