Ska's early playoff $9.95 notes for you, free for Surly subscribers.
tldr: This won’t be the same Longhorn team playing Washington, or the same result.
Last year Texas’s 20-27 loss to Washington in the Alamo Bowl was pretty much a microcosm of the Longhorn’s 2022 season. Moments of greatness and the empty feeling of disappointment with so much talent and ability on display. This year the rematch in New Orleans has all the talking heads forecasting a close game and seeing a “shoot out.” These won’t be the same two teams taking the field, however, and Texas has tools to change that outcome.
Washington’s Run Game- Last year it was Taulapapa carving up 108 yards, 42 of that on a breakaway touchdown run. His other 13 carries still netted a 5 yd per carry pop due to multiple factors. Double teams on our tackles were effective and our linebackers frequently got caught up in the wash, made bad read/react moves, or simply were not gap sound. Ford and Dorsey-Tucker didn’t have “bad” games, but it was clear that without Overshown on the field, the communication wasn’t there.
This year it’s Miss St. transfer Dillon Johnson toting the rock to the tune of 1113 yards on the ground for the Huskies. He’s got prototypical NFL measurables and sits just outside the top 25 in the nation for yards carrying the ball. But Texas just faced the #1 rusher in Gordon and shut that shit down. Two weeks prior it was #4 in the nation Tahj Brooks. Brooks did fairly better than Gordon, but the Horns held him to under 100 yards and cruised by Texas Tech. The defensive line of this year isn’t the d line of last year. The linebackers will also be much improved. With a full squad of seasoned players on the field, don’t expect Johnson to run free.
Special Teams- Last year Texas blew a blocking assignment on a punt and gifted Washington a blocked punt, a short field, and an early 3 point lead. It wasn’t a back breaking moment, but these kinds of plays can swing momentum in games.
This year Texas has amped up its special teams play in all facets of the game. If Xavier is back and doing electric things in the punt return game, expect Texas to take advantage of Washington’s average punter. They have also managed to block a few of their own in critical moments this year. The momentum swinging moment on special teams is more likely to come from Texas this year.
Texas Offense- Last year Texas entered the game without generational talent Bijan Robinson and his dynamic duo counterpart Roschon Johnson. Needless to say, Texas suddenly was without an offensive identity and tried to rely on the arm of Q. Ewers without a proven RB to fill those gigantic shoes. Sark tried to give Keilan Robinson the bulk of the leg work, but he showed that feature back was not his calling. Texas ended up with a mere 14 rushing attempts from the RBs. Ewers did have a great game and outpass Penix for a sum of 31/47 369 1. It was just too little, too late.
This year the offense is scary good. An abundance of weapons to throw to, a stable of RBs that pound, pound, pound, and K. Rob burning around the edge. The best TE in college. An O line that just gets better and better. Recent games have shown that the Longhorns are improving in their red zone offense and scoring touchdowns rather than field goals unlike earlier in the season. Texas should mount a very balanced and dangerous attack. Washington is 90th in total defense. Texas faced seven teams ranked higher and averaged 39 points per game this season against those opponents.
Washington’s Pass Game- Penix played great. 32/54 287 2 td 1 int. He spread the ball around to eight different receivers. He orchestrated two long td drives to extend the lead. He was everything as advertised.
This year the offense is pretty much the same, if not better. He has NFL receivers. Heisman numbers. Quality line. And he won more games than last year, putting them in the final four. He does struggle when pressured and isn’t really a running threat. Expect him to match last year's numbers. He’s a great quarterback who is going to find a way to score. He absolutely lit up the Stanford’s and Cal’s on their schedule, but the four teams he faced with top 50 defenses were tight games and nearly a touchdown below his team’s scoring average.
Texas Defense- Over the year last year, the Longhorn defense was a source of frustration. They improved immensely from their inaugural 2021 season, but still couldn’t seem to put it all together on the field at times. It was clear that key position units were in need of help, but Coach Kwiatkowski’s philosophies were starting to be evident and players were having more success. Players like Barron, Ford, and Sorrell were flashing signs of greatness by the end of the season, but Washington was able to expose a secondary still in transition and a defense that overall had not developed its identity, and was playing without its team captain. They still only managed 27 points.
This year Texas has that identity. There are still positional “holes” that could be filled, but this team plays with a passion. It starts up front, of course, with the best tandem of tackles in the country. Everyone knows what Sweat and Murphy can do to disrupt the run game and pressure passing games from the interior. Texas still lacks an elite pass rusher from the edge, but Ethan Burke is growing into that role and leads the team in sacks. Freshman Anthony Hill is emerging as a force on the field. Ryan Watts is expected back, but striker Malik Muhammad might be the better option attacking the physical Husky receivers. All in all, Coach K has his players communicating much better this year. The turnover ratio is way up. It’s really a team without any “stars” in the backfield, but lots of players who make plays. The obvious weakness this year was with deep balls and missed assignments. With a month to prepare, expect a bend but don’t break scheme, keeping everything in front of you, with plenty of well designed blitz packages to keep Penix guessing. The more attempts he has to make, the more opportunities for errors and takeaways. The Texas game plan for its recent previous opponents, stifle the run and make your team one dimensional, worked soundly. Expect to see it again. Penix could channel his inner-Brady and have a career day against the Longhorns, but he simply has not faced a defense like this yet this year.
In the end, defense wins championships, and Washington’s simply won’t be good enough to keep up with the Longhorn’s aggressive, multi-faceted attacks. They haven’t faced anything like it. Sark is one of the best at exploiting team weaknesses and the Longhorn’s are really peaking at the right time. Expect Texas to score big. On the other side of the ball, the Huskies will get some points, but Texas simply wears down Washington with depth, athleticism, and well-timed aggressiveness.