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SKA the boss

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Posts posted by SKA the boss

  1. Full disclosure- I’m no expert, just a degenerate gambler. But I do an immense amount of study for this race scouring over the PP sheets and watching every prep race multiple times with a focus on each individual horse and his performance. I’m merely throwing this out there for those of you who don’t have time to dive deeply into it or those that simply want to compare notes.

    For those new to the Derby: It’s incredibly hard to handicap because there is no other race like it. The field is huge, every horse has done something impressive, and none of them have ever run this distance yet. Add in the weather, size of the crowd, and a week of paparazzi, and it’s no wonder there’s money to be made every single year, even when the favorite wins. (An anomalous five-year streak we won’t worry about.)

    Here’s what I’m gleaning after careful study of the PP sheets and watching all the prep races multiple times with a discerning eye on every horse.

    Maximum Security- The knock on him is lack of experience and a perceived easier competition. I’m more convinced by 4-0-0 lifetime with margins of 3, 6, 9, and 18 lengths. One writer wondered if he was “a freak or the path was too easy.” Watch the Fla Derby and see how he never lets Bodexpress into the race. Saez hand rides him until mid-stretch, but every time the horses behind try to desperately move, Max just edges on more. Perky eared and alert, this is a horse with a heart to win.

    Tacitus- He’s shown now that he can rate back (Tampa Derby) or stay with the pace setter (Wood) and win either way. His speed index just gets faster and faster with each race (103 at Aquaduct impressive) He’s just better than Tax in the Wood. No doubt. He also has the fastest  mile 1/16 race time in the field. Can he go the distance and win?

    By My Standards- He appears to be peaking at the right time. Finally broke the 100 speed index in a hard fought, impressive victory in the LA Derby which might have been the best of the Derby preps. Gritty and tough, he’s one of the 10 in the field who has never finished outside the money.  His workouts have reportedly been eye popping this week and he’s earning the label of the Wise Guy horse. History is rarely on the side of the Wise Guy horse to win, but he’s a battler for sure.

    Win Win Win- Better to be lucky than good, right? WWW has been incredibly unlucky in his last two races with almost nightmarish trips in the Tampa Bay and Blue Grass. Bumps, clips, stumbles, cut off in the turn, cut off at the stretch. And he still closed like a freight train in each one to grab 3rd and 2nd in impressive style. He blew past four horses down the stretch of the Blue Grass like they were standing still. He’s got the pedigree on both sire and dam. It’s a tough run from the 14 hole, but if his luck has turned he can be in the mix.

    Improbable- Oddly enough, the Baffert horse that I think has the best chance is the one people are talking about the least. Three wins and two seconds by a combined length and a neck (one of those to the now scratched Omaha who would have been at the top of this list).  He’s got probably the most beautiful long stride of any of the horses in the field. Silky. He’s made his living off of trailing the pace setter and then striking late. That’s a tall task in a 20 horse field. He’ll need a clean break and more endurance than ever.

    Roadster and Game Winner- They are pretty interchangeable. Should be 1 and 1A. Game winner has slightly better speed figures. Roadster has slightly better record lately. Not good enough to make two-time Derby jockey winner Mike Smith think he can win riding him though. And they are traveling from way outside. People are knocking Max Security for lack of quality, but the Santa Anita was really not very impressive with a pedestrian 1:51 in a six horse field. The odds will be too deflated with the “Baffert effect” on these two horses while running from the dreaded 15 and beyond position. It takes very special horses (think American Pharaoh) to win from there. Neither of them has looked “special.”

    Vekoma- A perplexing horse that looks like he’s crippled. That front left leg kicks out wide and you wonder if he’s going to fall down. He’s posted some nice speed figures, though. Faced good competition. Always in the money. And yet, he seems like the horse you should leave out. Or the one you will kick yourself for leaving out of your exotics.

    Tax- Speed. Speed. Speed. Unfortunately this race is also endurance, endurance, endurance. Ask Tacitus.

    War of Will- Would have, could have, should have. Injury in the LA derby. Never topped 100 in speed index. Hard to believe that damaged goods can recover in time to do any damage here.

    The others:

    Long Range Toddy, Spinoff, Country House – too far outside and not enough performance to even consider.

    Code of Honor- Can he spoil things? Not with a 95 as his best speed and so inconsistent.

    Haikal- You want a long shot? This is it. He waits and waits and waits. It’s a dangerous game in the Derby. But he is THE closer in the field. If you want to play a big tri or super box, he must be in it.

    Everyone else? Good horses that will be over matched.

    I'll post my picks before I head down to Retama.

    • Like 3
  2. Further, Green and the defense will not face any vanilla offenses like the Spring game other than LSU, so don't read too much into the defensive performance.

    Yeah, growing pains to be expected. But the young pups are facing some of the toughest wrs in the nation in practice and already look fearless. So much better than years past when we were watching db’s looking lost and timid.
    • Like 1

  3. Spring game thoughts:
    Glad I took a hoodie. It was cold af.

    Vanilla offense makes a boring game. Don’t read anything into it.

    Green will light you up. Our secondary is going to fucking terrify OCs.

    Whittington is going to be fun to watch.

    Casey should be fine if we need him.

    • Like 4

  4. LHN just showed the commercial where Ricky says you can hear “Texas Fight” at the transmitter and VY pulls up in a cart and calls all the kids over to go somewhere else and I start yelling at the t.v. “Don’t get in the car! Don’t get in the car!”
    Was that wrong?

  5. I’m not going to read all 1,700 posts. Has anyone figured out when we’re going to see this “exciting” brand of basketball and “chaos” defense that was promised when he got here?

  6. Dallas and Pitt have been in 8, NE with 10 actually (remember 1986), unless BB only then 9 which agreed is unbreakable. 

    Dallas and Pitt did that in multiple decades with different teams. Brady has been to nine.
    For comparison, Elway is 2nd qb on list in appearances with 5.
  7. I don't know if Troy just hates Jerry Jones or what, but his coverage of the Cowboys always sounds resentful, bitter.
    I'd swear every time he's rooting for Dallas to lose.

    I’m pretty sure he hates him. If you’re ever heard him talk about what a shitfest things turned into after Jimmy was fired and his disgust with Switzer I’m sure he blames Jerrah for costing him a chance at a Brady-like career.
  8. That's awesome, but I hope that doesn't put Overshown in a bad spot. 
    Quoted from a recruiting thread.
    If he transfers he sits out a year and can start in 20
    If he stays, he sees the field in packages, substitutions, injuries, and possibly starts depending on what Orlando cooks up in 19, and he starts in 20
    If Overshown leaves, it is because he was leaving anyway or because he is an idoit. I am hoping the answer to both of those is NO.

    Yeah, I can’t imagine a transfer. You hear guys like Huff tell stories about showing up with Babers, Griffin, Ross, Geiger, et al on the roster and reloading every year wondering if there’s a spot for him. Work hard and be a part of DBU. Seems to pay off.
    This is a good day.
  9. If you lose to the good teams, what’s the point? Their best win this year was Kentucky, a team that couldn’t complete a pass. Or LSU, a team that couldn’t defend a pass. 

    Funny how their “good win” is vs. Kentucky. You know, sec east, who was the “weak, crappy” sec once we handled jawja. And the LSU game was a shitfest until the refs started spotting them the ball on their opponents 25 yd line and making crap calls to help them.
  10. Watching it happen in real time, I thought “Are these dumb fucks really going to bring that dog up to Bevo’s pen? Shit is about to go down.”
    Seriously, this was all on the stupid people involved who thought it would be ‘cute.’
    And the only reason it didn’t turn out “bad” was because Bevo knew exactly where those horns were going. Right where that mutt was sitting.

    • Like 1
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