I spoke to someone who covers Wake and he doesn't think the buyout figure Goodman reported last year is correct, he thought Manning's agent leaked that number as a way of relieving some of the pressure on his client's job status. Nobody knows what the actual guaranteed money is on Manning's deal because Wake is a private school and never released the contract details, so there's a good chance it's substantially lower than that report. Wake fans have been thirsty as hell for Shaka, and the numbers make some sense in theory.
Beyond that, there will be a number of spots that open up in the coming days as schools start to fire their coaches. All it takes is one of them to make it happen; maybe nobody does, but it still seems like the most plausible path. My suspicion - and I'm speculating here, I don't know this for certain - is that it was quietly made clear to Shaka and his agent that his tenure here is closing sooner than later and it's in their best interest to find him another spot ASAP. So he *could* return, but neither side is working towards him staying in Austin.
We'll know soon enough if this is legit or if I'm off-base. If I'm wrong, I'll own it.