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Bodacious Bevo

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Posts posted by Bodacious Bevo

  1. On 11/25/2023 at 9:21 AM, Atticus said:

    I'm a big Ewers fan, but his lack of field vision has been a recurring theme going back to last year. He is who he is at this point. He's great if things are schemed up for him and sometimes he can even thread some balls into tight windows, but when it comes to creating on his own, he isn't that.

    I appreciate the fact that he's the best we've had since Colt, but I also believe that distinction will be short-lived.

    Hopefully he balls out the rest of the way, then comes back and makes major strides over the off-season to become a first round draft pick in the 2025 NFL draft. 

     

    On 11/25/2023 at 9:32 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

    He is what he is for this year, sure. But, just like he got a metric shot ton better last offseason to this I will bet he makes big strides this offseason.  
    Flat out, he will be in NYC if healthy next year and  go top 5 in the draft. If he’s banged up I trust Arch. I think Arch is gonna be special. 

    Quinn made a nice little jump before the bowl game last year. I think a lot of that was just the time to stop his head spinning. Hope we see the same this year, especially with time for his shoulder to heal up. 

     

    On the Tech performance - Quinn was absolutely shredding them in the RPO game early. We moved off of it and it wasn't a great game for Quinn overall but he was in a nice rhythm early.

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  2. 2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

    there is and has never been any reason to schedule tough out of conference games.  The poll era and committee's have proven this over and over again.  you just need to make sure you go 3-0 in OOC.  they lie all the time about body of work/SOS

    FWIW I hope we continue to play big OOC games. Fuck the playoffs, it makes for more entertainment and helps recruiting. 

    1 hour ago, BurgleBro said:

    Why do they have Tulane being a thing??? In what world does the best team left out of the playoffs play the 17th ranked team overall???

     

    If we're left out I hope we don't play this like UGA in '18. 

     

    We're 11-1. I refuse to be upset about anything college football related.

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  3. 17 minutes ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

    image.png.71b9863b675a0345397f07c8a5e480f8.png

    These are the Big 12 title odds. That's not exactly the same as us winning out, but it converts to a 67.7% implied probability. 

    Using the numbers from above, we're +130 to make the CFP. 43.5% implied probability. 

    So, Vegas gives us about a 2/3 chance to make it if we win the conference. That would be a higher shot if we were to win the conference undefeated. 

    Note that FSU's implied probability to make the CFP is 41.7% based on +140. That's a pretty clear tradeoff to me. It's us or them with there also being some chaos scenarios where we both make it. 

    Furthermore, look at selection history. Unless I'm missing something, and this is my first time looking at this chart so I might be, no 0/1-loss conference champ has ever been passed up for a non-champ (excluding Notre Dame of course). The years OSU/Bama/UGA/TCU made it as non-champs had at least two 2-loss conference champs

    image.png.1a28ac4b85f6afb5c5a36410bc80b604.png

  4. 6 minutes ago, hornbri said:

    You know that has more to do with the odds of each of those teams winning out than anything else right? I bet the odds of Texas winning its next two games and the odds of Texas making the playoffs are virtually equal. 

    image.png.71b9863b675a0345397f07c8a5e480f8.png

    These are the Big 12 title odds. That's not exactly the same as us winning out, but it converts to a 67.7% implied probability. 

    Using the numbers from above, we're +130 to make the CFP. 43.5% implied probability. 

    So, Vegas gives us about a 2/3 chance to make it if we win the conference. That would be a higher shot if we were to win the conference undefeated. 

    Note that FSU's implied probability to make the CFP is 41.7% based on +140. That's a pretty clear tradeoff to me. It's us or them with there also being some chaos scenarios where we both make it. 

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  5. 3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

    You spend a lot of time each week, and during the offseason, shitting yourself over all of the ways Texas will lose and fail to live up to standards. It seems like hard fucking work, so, good for you, I guess. 

    I don’t think it takes these posters a whole lot of time. Pretty sure they have templates that they can copy/paste and just change out opponent team names because I think I’ve read the same shit on everyone one of these threads 

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  6. Hey y'all I have a personal favor to ask everyone on this board. Please mute shadow op. If you won't do it for yourself, do it for me. 

     

    7 hours ago, Codaxx said:

    People have criticized Quinn for his lack of emotion, but it is really one of his greatest attributes. He wasn’t very good in the 1, though neither was Sark’s script (I have noticed Quinn locks on more during the script). He was straight bad vs OU in the 1Q. He rallied to look excellent in the 2nd half of both games. Texas is a 10 win team and the offensive success is centered around the passing game, yet people are constantly bitching. Think about the difference from last year to this year. The 2022 team saw every defense loading the box and daring Quinn to beat them. This year every team plays the pass and gives Texas honest numbers in the run game. Quinn is the MVP of this offense 

    Personally I'd still give offensive MVP to Worthy. He's so good. And I realize this is the Quinn thread, so sorry for the diatribe. All defenses schemed to shut him down in the first half of the year. And now his stats are showing up because it didn't work. X won't be a beloved legend because of his... well, let's just call them some unfortunate moments. And those are mistakes that are fair to criticize. But the dude warps entire game plans and game flows like not many other Longhorns have. 

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  7. 2 hours ago, crash_davis said:

    We lose Worthy, JWhit, Sanders, and probably Mitchell. That's probably 95% of the passing yards. Those guys will be replaced by dudes who haven't or have barely taken any snaps nor caught passes. This was Quinn's year to make himself money. He may be better next year, our passing numbers just may not show it.

    Good thing the NFL doesn't draft based on passing numbers!

    • Like 1
  8. 2 hours ago, Longhornfrenzy said:
     
     

    Lunch with Liucci:

    Segment 1 (00:00:00 - 15:42:03)

    • It was a wild week. I said it last night, I had to mix in some family stuff. It's fine. Everything is good. It was stressful. This stuff is not fun. There is an adrenaline thing of chasing down a story, getting the story and juggling it. So many of these kids' parents listen. It's one of my favorite parts of the job. They can become lifelong friends. 
       
    • It is annoying when you put a story out, and you have people trying to go out of their way to villainize the person who put the story out because the kids found out via social media. There are things you can say bad about me. The one thing you cannot say is that I do not consider other people in everything I do, especially in this instance. It's a small group. I like to look people in the eye and say, “You do not know a damn thing about me, the process or what went on.”
       
    • My first concern was not letting anything out prior to that game. That was a fun night for the kids. They had a freaking blast. I was careful in not wanting to be manipulated in any way in terms of the timing. There were people who had an idea or knew and were saying they didn't agree with it. It was people who mattered. 
       
    • That decision was made at the highest level, and that was my thought. I did not see it being walked back because of the level of decision it was. Ross Bjork said it was his recommendation to the Texas A&M’s President. They took it to the board. The people at the top had to sign off on that. Once they did, there was no walking it back. 
       
    • It takes a toll on you walking around that stadium that night knowing what might happen. Some people don't like us because they dont like success. There has been a success here, and they hate when you talk about things like this. I'm calling that small group right now. Selfish would have been announcing that during College GameDay when kids are sitting at the hotel. I waited until the national people were getting word at 6:45 a.m. on Sunday morning. I was making phone calls, stressing and wringing my hands over it.
       
    • A. You want the story. We deserve the story. I had had it since the inception of it, but at the same time, it meant a lot to me to make sure it was done, and there was no stopping it.
       
    • B. I wanted Jimbo Fisher to know. I was as positive as I could be that he knew before leaving that building Saturday night without calling him, thus interfering in the process. It was tough. 
       
    • Here's the thing with Jimbo Fisher. Kevin Sumlin made comments about the toll the job took on his health and family. Jimbo came up from West Virginia, didn't have a lot, and went to Samford to play football. He wasn't a five-star. Forget what you think about him. Think about the human here. He worked his way up to the peak of his profession. He was coaching in front of 100,000 people, doing what he loved, not knowing that was going to be his last time to coach here. 
       
    • I don't know if Jimbo will ever coach again. I think he will. Is he even 60 yet? He loves it. Maybe he does, but not in that type of environment. All of a sudden, he is fired, and he has $75 million. Maybe he goes and sits on his farm in West Virginia.
       
    • There is a human element we forget sometimes. He has $75 million, but do you think that guy wasn't devasted when he got the news? In the moment, it's OK to consider the human there that failed at what he was paid to do. I was thinking about that yesterday. There's a human side. There is a family side too. I am not saying you should not fire coaches. Of course, you should. That is the sport. They are compensated very handsomely, but that doesn't change the fact that it's not really a day to celebrate when you make a change when the guy isn't winning as much as you want or expected them to. 
       
    • This machine, and this is why I think they to be careful about who they hire, this thing does not have championships. We don’t have trophies around here. I was just talking to Greg McElroy and Cole Cubelic. The expectations are absolutely reasonable. They are not based on history. Even though A&M historically hasn't won like powerhouse programs, expectations have nothing to do with history. 
       
    • I said prior to the Mississippi State game that a win wasn't going to be enough. Before that meeting, I felt bad energy/vibes coming out of Ole Miss in terms of the wolves circling. Ole Miss, the wind was blowing in a certain direction. These road trips get you. 

    Segment 2 (15:42:03 - 20:57:00)

    • The thing about the Kevin Sumlin vs. Jimbo Fisher graphic, was not only was it annoying, but people would fall into the "Should not have fired Sumlin" rabbit hole. That wasn't the point of it. 
       
    • They need to make a good hire this time. I really like the message Josh Pate has said about A&M. It is a tremendous job. You could win massively here. You have to find the right guy, and they haven't. You hope they aren't heading to the dark ages. 
       
    • A&M needs this hire to hit. You see programs that have a lot of history going through dark periods more than A&M has, This will be a 7-5 team or 8-4 with a ton of talent.
       
    • I know, some of it will go out the door during the transition. I think a lot of that would happen anyway. That was part of the concern. It happens to everyone. This is really important for Ross Bjork, the decision maker, to get this one right. Get the right guy and get him quickly, and don't give me this crap, I don't want to hear. 

    Segment 3 (20:57:00 - 22:53:08)

    • "The board told Jimbo he was let go on Saturday. He stormed out of the locker room and left for the ranch. That is not true. There is a lot that is not true that I get. 
       
    • Don't give me the "We need a strong coach. He needs to be organized and be friends with everyone." That is something you put on your list that we desire. Have that on the list. Plenty of people check that box and can recruit lights out. Everyone can put elite players on the field. The biggest part of the job is keeping this team together as much as you can because if you do, you have a winner on day one.

    Segment 4 (22:53:08 - 36:01:10)

    • I love it for Elijah Robinson. He deserves it. The players are happy with it, and I think coaches on staff, like Bobby Petrino and D.J. Durkin. They will respect that. 
       
    • This could be fun for Elijah. This could be a good audition for him. Not only around here but for anywhere. Elijah is Elijah. He is real. He is lovable. He will show love but also push you and make you better. There is a reason he is paid as much as he is to be a position coach. They could not afford to lose him. He is an elite recruiter. 
       
    • Of everyone on that staff that you want to keep, no matter what your next head coach is, it's Elijah Robinson. Period. It doesn't mean it can't work without him. You can't get caught up on one coach or player during a transition, but I think it would be incredibly important and beneficial to the next coach if he is a prominent member of that staff.
       
    • I can't even put into words how far that would go in terms of keeping guys here, recruiting efforts and putting together the right staff. The connection of Elijah and Terry Price, I would have said the same damn thing about TP when Kevin Sumlin was fired. Fisher retained Price. We all know what TP's value was. Elijah is the exact same way. 
       
    • How cool would it be to see Elijah go 3-0? Go beat LSU in Baton Rouge, and go win a bowl game. Have this team get to nine wins. All of these things are important in terms of retention and setting the coach on the path to win right away. You have the potential to say whoever walks in there, has a loaded roster from day one. I don’t think we will quite be able to say that because of the damn portal nowadays.
       
    • Durkin is a hell of a recruiter. He is a pro's pro. He is another guy who is loved in the building. He is doing a great job on the recruiting trail. Guys like that stand out. Between that and making a quick hire, you have the potential to retain a lot of this. You will lose some. There are no two ways around this. You will lose guys you want to keep, and they will make a big deal of it on social media. If you hire the right coach and they sell it right, you can have a contending team on day one at Texas A&M. 
       
    • This week, they are talking to people. You would love to see it wrapped up in a couple of weeks. From the end of Mississippi State to the end of LSU is two weeks. You would love to see a decision by the middle of that week following LSU. 
       
    • There isn't a name that has floated to me that I have not thought about. I think Kliff Kingsbury is a really intersting one. Go get Dan Lanning. Go get Dan Campbell. Go get Kalen DoBoer. Look at what he is doing right now at Washington. Those are highly unlikely, but if you start talking about these other candidates, I like a lot about Elko. Kliff is intriguing. Somebody mentioned Todd Monken. He is doing great work with the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. He won a couple of national titles with Stetson Bennett at Georgia. 
       
    • It's day one. I try to tell y'all exactly what is happening, and what is exactly happening is there is not a standalone candidate. There are not two or three. There's a list. They will use the search firm that A&M is contracted out to. They will use that to weed out a lot of it so A&M can narrow it down.
       
    • There is no one or two guys sitting at the top of a list right now. As of Monday morning, that is not the case. I know people say every AD walks around with a list in his pocket. Well, yeah. Ross probably has a list, but this is different because of the money you are paying Jimbo. 
       
    • All those guys I mentioned will get calls. They may get advice on who they should hire. Mike Elko, if he had not left for Duke, he would have been the perfect inside promotion. What's even better is now he has Power 5 experience.  
       
    • There is one person I haven't dove into it, but had Luke Fickell not taken to the Wisconsin job last year and been at Cincinnati one more year, would Fickell be the guy that every A&M fan would want? I don’t know if he would come. When we think about these things, don't forget about stuff like that. 

    Segment 5 (36:01:10 - 44:27:09)

    • Not evolving to the game was part of it, but Jimbo certainly tried in terms of recruiting, portal and NIL. Offensively, was slow. There was a lot. Maybe tried to do too much of it on his own. That's hard to do. Sometimes coaches don't realize that. Some personalities want to do everything on their own. It worked for him at FSU.
       
    • College football is so unique in how much it changes almost every five years. Whether it be the rules, style of play, the portal, NIL, or realignment, it's ever-changing. 
       
    • They don’t have a recruiting coordinator yet. They never added that. They don’t have a high school relations guy. They made hires, but they weren't out there.
       
    • The other thing that got him is there was some misfortune with those quarterback injuries. Has the caliber of the staff gone down? I think some of it, though, was big misfortune. People don't like hearing that, but it's real. 
       
    • In 2020, they would have been really damn good in a regular season. They might have been better. A&M had the layout to be the second-best team in the SEC that season. Who is to say that if Ohio State had played more games, they would not have dropped one? A&M would have been 12-1. Ohio State loses one game, and A&M is in there. 
       
    • Describing his tenure, it was really close. They could not quite get over it. There are a million reasons why. It was not just one. 
       
    • When they were putting together that No. 1 class, had they finished off the 2020 season in style... Maybe you get additional recruits. That was the moment, dropping those road games, that was your chance. That is when it could have flipped

    IIRC ATM benefitted a lot from the rescheduling in 2020. I think they had UGA as their SEC East matchup. So saying they would have been 12-1 in a normal year is kind of lazy. They were looking at a 10-2 ceiling. And where did the 12 come from? The conference championship even though they wouldn’t have gotten in over Bama? 

  9. 5 hours ago, Goredho said:

    I don’t know that he’s changed the culture.  I am afraid it might be the same culture with a vastly upgraded roster.  The talent level of the average player on this team is as good as it’s been since at least the Colt years (VY for oline) and yet we’re still trying our damnedest to lose to teams with vastly less talent.  The ugly we saw in this game is no longer an isolated, outlying sample from this team.  It’s happened in multiple games across both QBs.

    Dude we had BJ Foster quitting on game-losing plays then entering the portal and being welcomed back. Our coach wouldn’t say certain players’ names. He wouldn’t say hi back when some of our star players acknowledged him in the hallways. Mehringer nearly caused a mutiny in a WR room full of good dudes. Guys were portalling out and that was pre-NIL era. The culture is vastly improved. 
     

    Organizational culture is like personality for an individual. It won’t win you every individual game but it will absolutely contribute to positive outcomes in the long run 

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  10. This board has really gone downhill. The BOW incel thing should've been three pages of material. How will we ever get back to getting 1k on these threads? 

    2 hours ago, NoName said:

    I'm legit shocked there isn't one out there written by someone on this site.

    Then again maybe that's why @Machinatorleft us, to write his version that leads to Texas winning 20 straight national championships.

    Bryan Cranston Please GIF by Emmys

    There is. I just remembered to dedicate some pages to access protocols and not being photographed so easily. 

    • Haha 1
  11. 2 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

    It really is incredible to hear them publicly admitting this. Let’s play devils advocate for a moment. You fire Jimbo at the end of the 2024 season instead of 2023 just so you have a chance at winning that single, likely meaningless for them, regular season game. 

    What impact does that have? Well, for starters, the 2025 class is going to be a monster in state class. None of the top talent is going to go to a dead man walking coach with a boring offense. That means that they are jeopardizing at least 3 or even 4 seasons including 2024 for a single game with a bunch of mercenaries.

    That could mean three straight subpar classes (23, 24, 25) for their next coach. The portal has changed the nature of rebuilds but damn that’s grim 

    And another thing. Championships are built by stacking classes. They preached that the first five years under Jimbo. But now they think that they can win on the strength of a single class. They’ve bled out a bunch of guys from ‘21 (but those were just scrubs!) and the early returns at positions of need for ‘23 have not looked good. 

  12. 11 minutes ago, Constant said:

    Guyton plays RT. He said Banks is not the best tackle playing in this game. Not sure I agree, but his evidence was the Kansas tape. More specifically, Ikard believes the way to defeat Texas’ o-line is through the guards and I would agree there. 

    I actually agree that Banks isn't the best tackle in this game. That's Christian Jones. 

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