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Bodacious Bevo

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Bodacious Bevo

  1. The recruiters listed on 247 are often not accurate. Pretty sure Bo Davis is doing the heavy lifting in that one.
  2. omg I mixed up the recruiting cycle and calendar year this is possibly the most aggy thing I've ever done corrected version here
  3. I usually don't think you should mess with a classic, but I felt this season called for an update.
  4. Banks + Majors got another one of their DBs on this play too
  5. they really should have gone with mono if they wanted this to be believable after the first week although a mono outbreak in a football team would raise questions
  6. Ketch had this to say on Thursday
  7. As far as I can tell with some quick googling, the largest buyout ever paid to fire a coach was 21.5MM to Gus Malzahn. I assume A&M will be willing to at least triple that (because of course they will), but they'll still have to wait until after the 2024 season when Jimbo's remaining salary drops to 67.5MM.
  8. "Works in a science field" is vague but if you have experience with psychometrics you'll know that every instrument is flawed. Something like QB skill is going to be impossible to grade quantitatively. QB rating, QBR, PFF, etc. are all just data points. Raw stats generally being the worst of them
  9. Bruh only like one third of prospects work out and he'll have to do a lot better than that to be an upgrade, let's not go discounting JWhitt
  10. But the boundary corner has less ground to cover, they can use the sideline as help, WRs on that side won't have the full route tree to run, etc. Plus offenses are more likely to line up with multiple receivers on the field side rather than the boundary side. Help should go on the field side. It's more realistic to expect someone to be a shutdown corner on the boundary.
  11. I know that's what it's supposed to do, but it's still only a statistical modifer for a base stat. RBs that break more tackles than normal or that break them further back will still impact line yards disproportionally
  12. For those that just want the stats. Sorry that the header doesn't line up. I added alternating boldness in the hopes that'll help with readability. A&M included just because they're one line below us. Offense Avg. Line Yards Rk Std. Downs Line Yards Rk Pass. Downs Line Yards Rk Opp. Rate Rk Power Success Rate Rk Stuff Rate Rk Sack Rate Rk Std. Downs Sack Rate Rk Pass. Downs Sack Rate Rk Texas 2.73 59 2.72 51 3.11 44 51.8% 25 66.7% 79 15.2% 32 3.3% 22 3.5% 46 6.1% 46 Texas A&M 2.64 79 2.57 83 3.10 45 51.4% 31 66.7% 79 19.4% 94 8.3% 108 9.1% 121 5.8% 41 I think the backs are still carrying the line's water. Our stuff rate is 15% but we are definitely getting hit in the backfield on more than 15% of carries (though that's improving).
  13. Models favor stats that are indicators of success over a large number of snaps. Success rate, for example, is a stat that is relevant for every snap of every game. Compare that to something like 3rd and long % allowed on defense or 4th down % allowed on defense - those might only be relevant for a couple of plays in any given game so the predictive value is seen as much lower. So these models take in a bunch of different stats and give more weight to the ones that are seen as being more important over lots of snaps, then they simulate a game like 1000 times to generate a prediction. So while we freak out because allowing Dekkers to convert a bunch of third and longs is horrible and almost cost us the game, the computers might have only had that happening in 80 out of 1000 simulations, and we still won. So as long as we keep having good results on most plays, they're going to keep liking us. We're #13 in offensive success rate and #18 in defensive success rate (not sure if those numbers include ISU). I think tOSU, Michigan, UGA, Syracuse, and Minnesota are the only teams above us in both stats.
  14. 1st +-1: Bijan 3rd +-1: Roschon 4th +-1: Ojomo, Sweat, Coburn 5th +-1: Jamison, 6th +-1: Overshown, Cook 7th +-1: Jones, JWhitt UDFA: Keilan
  15. While this is true, if you only count the games he won, he's 13-0.
  16. They can look down on our win against Iowa State, but most metrics have ISU ranked higher than Arkansas and Miami. Some even have ISU above A&M.
  17. This thread is always an interesting read a couple days after our games I thought ISU's use of rollouts was really clever. All of our pass rush is in the middle of the line. I expect to see more rollouts from other teams moving forward. We moved Cook and Crawford to safety this year. I have high hopes for Crawford next year but he definitely doesn't seem ready yet Before yesterday, Watts had played 86.37% of snaps, Thompson 85.68%, Cook 75.29%, Jamison 65.82% (lower due to injuries). And that's all with some blowouts where you expect to see the backups. We really don't rotate our DBs that much except for Barron (55.2%). Johnson (32.33% higher due to injuries), Guilbeau (30.25%), and Crawford (20.79%) are the only backup DBs with a snap share above 10%.
  18. To add on to this, I haven't seen anybody talk about ISU's heavy use of rollouts. Our best penetration comes from the interior. Get your QB on a designed rollout then suddenly those 340lb DTs have to get through the lineman and then chase the QB down. Plus rollouts are a really natural pairing with bunch formations. I thought their offensive gameplan was really smart. At least it gives our defense a couple clear things to clean up.
  19. Ojomo and Jones will get late round or UDFA looks too. Keilan seems set on the NFL and Billingsley is a big ?
  20. This might just be semantics but I don't think the correct approach with Quinn is to rein him in. The kid is testing his limit and that's what I want to see. His limit is higher than any other QB in college football. The sooner he finds it the better. He doesn't have a whole lot of time. Quinn has already shown a propensity for a lot of the things that freshmen QBs need to work - commanding the offense, going through progressions, throwing the ball away when he needs to. His main learning points are going to be more reps and consistent footwork. On that second point, his footwork is excellent when he needs it to be. It's just that sometimes he doesn't need it because his arm is so good and that's when the inconsistency turns up. He missed a handful of open guys against OU but I fully trust that he and Sark will improve on that as he gets more reps.
  21. A couple more quotes from Hudson about the game via OB
  22. Here are the stats the defense has allowed on short passes over the middle so far this year 22/40, 320 yards, 2 TDs Pretty pedestrian. Maybe we should rethink the narrative that this is some kind of gaping weak for us. ETA stats for slants specifically: 17/26, 160 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
  23. The worst QB battle take of them all was Ian Boyd saying the team's ceiling was higher with Card
  24. I guess it's good that he gets to see us, but OU is the home team this year so they'll be the ones hosting him. Technically this is an OU visit
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