Jump to content

Bodacious Bevo

Burnt Ends
  • Posts

    2356
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Everything posted by Bodacious Bevo

  1. For those that just want the stats. Sorry that the header doesn't line up. I added alternating boldness in the hopes that'll help with readability. A&M included just because they're one line below us. Offense Avg. Line Yards Rk Std. Downs Line Yards Rk Pass. Downs Line Yards Rk Opp. Rate Rk Power Success Rate Rk Stuff Rate Rk Sack Rate Rk Std. Downs Sack Rate Rk Pass. Downs Sack Rate Rk Texas 2.73 59 2.72 51 3.11 44 51.8% 25 66.7% 79 15.2% 32 3.3% 22 3.5% 46 6.1% 46 Texas A&M 2.64 79 2.57 83 3.10 45 51.4% 31 66.7% 79 19.4% 94 8.3% 108 9.1% 121 5.8% 41 I think the backs are still carrying the line's water. Our stuff rate is 15% but we are definitely getting hit in the backfield on more than 15% of carries (though that's improving).
  2. Models favor stats that are indicators of success over a large number of snaps. Success rate, for example, is a stat that is relevant for every snap of every game. Compare that to something like 3rd and long % allowed on defense or 4th down % allowed on defense - those might only be relevant for a couple of plays in any given game so the predictive value is seen as much lower. So these models take in a bunch of different stats and give more weight to the ones that are seen as being more important over lots of snaps, then they simulate a game like 1000 times to generate a prediction. So while we freak out because allowing Dekkers to convert a bunch of third and longs is horrible and almost cost us the game, the computers might have only had that happening in 80 out of 1000 simulations, and we still won. So as long as we keep having good results on most plays, they're going to keep liking us. We're #13 in offensive success rate and #18 in defensive success rate (not sure if those numbers include ISU). I think tOSU, Michigan, UGA, Syracuse, and Minnesota are the only teams above us in both stats.
  3. 1st +-1: Bijan 3rd +-1: Roschon 4th +-1: Ojomo, Sweat, Coburn 5th +-1: Jamison, 6th +-1: Overshown, Cook 7th +-1: Jones, JWhitt UDFA: Keilan
  4. While this is true, if you only count the games he won, he's 13-0.
  5. They can look down on our win against Iowa State, but most metrics have ISU ranked higher than Arkansas and Miami. Some even have ISU above A&M.
  6. This thread is always an interesting read a couple days after our games I thought ISU's use of rollouts was really clever. All of our pass rush is in the middle of the line. I expect to see more rollouts from other teams moving forward. We moved Cook and Crawford to safety this year. I have high hopes for Crawford next year but he definitely doesn't seem ready yet Before yesterday, Watts had played 86.37% of snaps, Thompson 85.68%, Cook 75.29%, Jamison 65.82% (lower due to injuries). And that's all with some blowouts where you expect to see the backups. We really don't rotate our DBs that much except for Barron (55.2%). Johnson (32.33% higher due to injuries), Guilbeau (30.25%), and Crawford (20.79%) are the only backup DBs with a snap share above 10%.
  7. To add on to this, I haven't seen anybody talk about ISU's heavy use of rollouts. Our best penetration comes from the interior. Get your QB on a designed rollout then suddenly those 340lb DTs have to get through the lineman and then chase the QB down. Plus rollouts are a really natural pairing with bunch formations. I thought their offensive gameplan was really smart. At least it gives our defense a couple clear things to clean up.
  8. Ojomo and Jones will get late round or UDFA looks too. Keilan seems set on the NFL and Billingsley is a big ?
  9. This might just be semantics but I don't think the correct approach with Quinn is to rein him in. The kid is testing his limit and that's what I want to see. His limit is higher than any other QB in college football. The sooner he finds it the better. He doesn't have a whole lot of time. Quinn has already shown a propensity for a lot of the things that freshmen QBs need to work - commanding the offense, going through progressions, throwing the ball away when he needs to. His main learning points are going to be more reps and consistent footwork. On that second point, his footwork is excellent when he needs it to be. It's just that sometimes he doesn't need it because his arm is so good and that's when the inconsistency turns up. He missed a handful of open guys against OU but I fully trust that he and Sark will improve on that as he gets more reps.
  10. A couple more quotes from Hudson about the game via OB
  11. Here are the stats the defense has allowed on short passes over the middle so far this year 22/40, 320 yards, 2 TDs Pretty pedestrian. Maybe we should rethink the narrative that this is some kind of gaping weak for us. ETA stats for slants specifically: 17/26, 160 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
  12. The worst QB battle take of them all was Ian Boyd saying the team's ceiling was higher with Card
  13. I guess it's good that he gets to see us, but OU is the home team this year so they'll be the ones hosting him. Technically this is an OU visit
  14. I was looking at the offensive grades like, "yeah Bijan's that dude, good for JWhitt getting up there, Banks is the best OL right, Majors and Jones getting solid grades seems about right, wait Coburn only at 60 I thought he was much better than that, Murphy at 58 holy shit PFF must really be terrible." Then I realized that was just for their fullback snaps LOL Jaylan Ford being our worst defensive starter at 62 is such a good sign. I'm seriously so impressed with the development on that side of the ball.
  15. We check in at #93 for average line yards, #78 for opportunity rate, #105 for power success rate, #77 for stuff rate, and #49 for sack rate. Not great!
  16. Dunlap's grading scale is pretty weird. But from following it for a couple years, my general interpretation is that <74 is bad, 74-77 is average, >77 is good, > 79 is great. Also, I have not been in agreement with the calls to replace Hutson with Campbell, but those clips are damning. I rewatched and saw him lose his balance a bunch but I hadn't counted it. 8 is pretty horrendous. The coaches seem to like Karic - maybe there's an option with him rotated in somewhere. I trust Flood to put the best lineup on the field though.
  17. I don't want to belabor the point that repeating the first half of your post ad nauseam is annoying, but I do want to say that the Texas NIL machine is going about their efforts in the right way. The team-wide deals lose their recruiting value if they aren't sustainable. It takes time to raise the kind of funds that will accomplish the goal at Texas. I don't know how SMU/Tech are funding their stuff, but the guy doing it for Miami has already said he's going to start scaling back. After one year lol. We aren't going to lose important recruits to SMU or Tech because of 30k, so have some patience while the difference-making work gets done.
  18. Give me 41-13 Texas and 193 yards for the receivers
  19. The bet on passion has been funding payments to players for more than half a century. I don't see any reason to think that will stop now that it's legal.
  20. Those were Sark's words in the preseason presser. My interpretation is that the coaches know our edge rush isn't consistent enough to force QBs to get ball out quickly, so the DBs will have to cover a bit longer to allow time for the DL to make pressure. That said the DL (interior especially) has been a lot better than preseason expectations. Agree with what you and Fumbles are saying.
  21. Judging safeties in coverage seems like an exercise in futility without all-22
  22. I quite like Thompson and Cook so far, but I do hope that Crawford can improve to take Cook's spot next year One thing that I don't have a strong opinion on but that I'm going to pay attention to is the demands that we're placing on the secondary. The defense is using the 'coverage to generate pressure' approach, which is a big ask by itself. Then you add a mobile QB like Harris, and you're asking them to cover for a long time. Like 4-5 seconds when the average release time is 2.5-3. I think the approach makes sense with our personnel (i.e. consistent strength being interior push), so this is more something to note than a complaint.
  23. Couple things on the run game and play calling in general IMO we're better at zone blocking (especially outside) than power schemes right now. I think the interior guys benefit from helping each other on their initial blocks. Makes up for their lack of strength and they're all athletic enough to get to the second level. Zone also means fewer pulls, which they've been bad at. UTSA LBs played the run super aggressively. We were able to punish on a couple jet sweeps but I think we need to see more of those early in the game rather than starting by trying to establish the inside run. Sark's affinity for speed should pay off big time here. On that note, Sark definitely held back schematically against ULM and UTSA, and not just because of the QB situation. He's saving a lot things for good opponents. Compare Bama with the other two and it's night and day. He'll show ULM/UTSA a lot of different personnel packages and formations, but is mostly running basic stuff out of them. I don't know where Tech falls in his mental hierarchy, but I expect to see more motion and creativity than last week.
  24. Bijan's financial priority needs to be getting to his second contract asap. And possibly to his third while he's still young. Unfortunately, RB is probably the position where it makes the least sense to stay for the fourth year. Fortunately, we're stocked at the position.
×
×
  • Create New...