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Bodacious Bevo

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Bodacious Bevo

  1. IT hasn't said anything new about a DC
  2. He has a daughter. Probably only a lateral move from Mehringer imo.
  3. So I came back and the photos aren't showing up for me in the post now, so here's a link to the album if anybody else can't see the charts. https://imgur.com/a/RUTITXI
  4. Samples and Herman have a good relationship
  5. I agree and I also think the opposite is true: high level OCs with talent will put up points on anybody.
  6. A large portion of the discussion regarding the current DC search revolves around whether candidates will be able to successfully defend Big 12 Offenses. Chris Ash has been at the center of these discussions, and a fairly common belief is that Ash's success in the Big 10 will not translate well to the Big 12 because he defended worse, more simplistic offenses in the Big 10. Of course, we're just a bunch of arm chair experts that don't actually know anything, so let's see if the numbers support our distrust of Big 10 DC's in any way. Quick Note: Stats ahead. I'll be spoilering large portions in order to make this readable. I thought about doing actual statistical testing, but it would have been bad science for several different reasons, so I decided not to. So, there won't be any claims about whether the difference in the performance of Big 12 offenses against Big 12 and Big 10 defenses are statistically significant. I'm guessing that they are not. However, a lack of significance does not mean that the difference does not matter in real life. Football is a game of inches after all. There were a total of 15 games played between Big 10 and Big 12 teams since the 2015 season. I recorded the points scored, total yards gained, passing yards gained, and rushing yards gained. I also went back and did the math to find each team's average in conference playfor those categories. I've put all of those stats as well as a couple notes in the following spoiler: So, how did Big 10 defenses hold up when compared to their Big 12 counterparts? Pretty well. In these 15 games, Big 10 defenses held their Big 12 opponents to 2.9 fewer points and 8.4 fewer yards If you look at the chart in the next spoiler, you'll see that rush yards + pass yards ≠ total yards but I'm not going back through all this to find like 10 misplaced yards However, if you remove the Cy-Hawk games from the equation, then there's a slightly different story. In the 10 games not involving Iowa/ISU, Big 10 defenses allowed their Big 12 opponents 1.8 more points and 25.0 more yards than their in-conference season averages I wrestled back and forth on whether to include the rivalry games, but ultimately I think it's best to keep them in the analysis. Regardless, there really isn't a major difference. Big 10 DC's have not fared much better or worse against Big 12 offenses than Big 12 DC's have. I also ran the numbers for Big 10 offenses against Big 12 defenses, and those results are very interesting. Big 10 offenses scored .5 fewer points than they did in conference play, although they did gain 18 more yards The math for passing and rushing yards is wonky again here If you take out the Cy-Hawk games, Big 10 offenses scored 2.2 fewer points than they did in conference play while gaining 3 more yards Not a huge difference, but that certainly undercuts the "they don't play D in the Big 12" narrative. Alright, let's talk about what we can take away here. It's incorrect to definitively say that Big 10 DC's perform worse against Big 12 offenses than Big 12 DC's. There is a lot of context and nuance, but the idea that a Big 10 DC is going to be lost trying to stop a Big 12 offense isn't supported by the last five years of games. How you choose to incorporate this post in to your opinion of Chris Ash is your own decision. I still don't want to hire the guy for reasons beyond his Big 10 background, but it seems that talking point is a bit overblown.
  7. Fuck it, I'll do it. Got a spreadsheet going with points, yards, passing yards, rushing yards scored by each team in the game as well as the conference averages in each category for each team that season. I'll go back five years (2015-2019 seasons). That covers one year of Ash at tOSU and I think is a fair representation of current big 12 offenses (well not really with the recent coaching hires but w/e there's no way to measure the impact those will have). If the sample size is bad I'll pull back further.
  8. So my understanding is that Jimbo’s contract is fully guaranteed. So if he tanks next year his buyout would be >50M right? Some people here bitch about Herman’s extension but god damn that’s so much worse
  9. Isn't Nahlin down playing Ash there? Doesn't seem like he's hyping up the subs to me
  10. Well I've been watching some of Graham Harrell's stuff from the past couple seasons, and I do agree that he and Herman have some nice overlap and could make a nice combo. But I think it's a bit weird to describe Herman as the "dual threat RPO" type. His use of the RPO this past season was really inconsistent and pretty poorly executed (at least the bubble screen version).
  11. I took it as sarcasm. We want the best DC and woah who would've thought that just happened to be the guy that worked with Herman at Ohio State
  12. No surprise, but Anwar is saying that Chad Morris isn't being considered for the OC job
  13. Suchomel is saying Ty Jordan OV'd to Utah this past weekend and that it went well (based on what he heard from a Utah coworker)
  14. This is the reason why I have Heacock and Lake as my top two. Heacock (ISU DC) gave Orlando the Lightning package that he had so much success with in 2017. I believe he is also the guy that led the inverted tampa 2 movement that is now being played by everyone in the Big 12. I think his resume is one of the best in the country at keeping up with Big 12 offenses. He's shown the ability to adapt to both his own personnel and offensive trends in the big 12. He'd be my first pick from a schematic standpoint, but I don't know anything about how he would handle the recruiting and politics at Texas. I know less about Lake. Specifically how ready he is to be a solo DC. Their defense was good before he was co-DC and I'm not sure if he's the one calling plays at UW. That said, UW has had a great defense and the PAC 12 at least has some air raid and spread offenses. UW has consistently had Leach's and WSU's number over the last couple years. Leach's offense isn't really a fit in the current big 12, but it's better than guys who only play SEC or B1G offenses. UW also held Graham Harrell and USC to 14 points, their lowest this year. Also, I would love to bring his DB development resume here. Good DB play is a prerequisite for success in the Big 12. Luckily, we will always have DB talent on campus so it'd be great to bring in a guy that could help us get the DBU moniker back.
  15. Since we're all throwing out shit: My personal favorites: Jon Heacock (Iowa State), Jimmy Lake (Washington) Would like them but won't happen: Morgan Scalley (Utah), Will Muschamp (SCar) Other good options I've heard thrown around: Kevin Steele (Auburn), Barry Odom (ex-Mizzou)
  16. Yes but it doesn't happen a lot. First one that comes to mind is Trey Sanders
  17. https://www.chronicle.com/article/As-Sports-Programs-Get-Richer/235026/?key=hdjaFrHBaS4D76nJdnK2oNsTp5IRKKjh6kZTr0FawV93eEpVZDdoMUpyZDlSWnIyTE1IZVNmTV9lY0xWOG1SZ0EtN3g2bl82R1VF That's the original article. Texas and OSU both give ~6% of their revenue to academic projects. In total, the 10 schools--which are, again the only ten schools that give more to academics than they receive in subsidies--gave on average ~4% of their revenue to academics. But that doesn't account for the $45M that Bama, UF, UM, and UK received in subsidies. So basically, out of 205 D1 athletic programs, Texas is #1 in terms of the amount we give back to the school and Top 2 in % given back (for the 2011-2014 period). This entire argument about prioritizing athletics or academics is pretty stupid because the two aren't mutually exclusive (just look at Ohio State), but I'm glad that we operate this way.
  18. https://247sports.com/Article/Report-10-athletic-departments-gave-more-money-to-academics-43162535/
  19. This post may not go over well right now, but from what I've seen, the data you're asking for will paint Herman in a good light. Improvement in a coach's second year is typically an indicator of success. I'm not sure of any analysis that looks at improvement in year 2 followed by regression in year three. Also, Herman still has almost a quarter of his third season left (including a bowl) so it's a bit premature to really quantify it. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/77720-college-football-whats-with-the-second-year-coaching-success I suppose that this NYT article would interest you, but I don't think anybody expected a national title this year, and it's drawing the cutoff at four years. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/03/sports/ncaafootball/hire-a-coach-wait-three-years-huskies-chris-petersen.html I think you're going to have a hard time finding data that supports your view, but if you tinker enough maybe you'll find something. I also think that the worst things about Herman aren't represented in the data so this is the wrong approach to take anyways.
  20. I think the first half of this video is worth watching for everybody. It talks about how Belichik is using Cover 0 on the NFL's best defense and the principles he follows when blitzing. Todd should watch it at the very least. Like satya is pointing out here, the issue isn't just the blitz calls, it's how they're coached. The calls are predictable, which means the offense sees it coming and makes the proper protection adjustments so that there are available blockers. But then our LBs and DBs are just running straight in to those blockers because they haven't been coached to properly time and space themselves. I was unsure of my position on Orlando until the K-State game. Even though KSU and ISU have been our two best defensive performances, they're the games that have sunk my opinion of Orlando. Our guys are playing better individually, but Orlando is still putting them in really bad positions even with a bye week to fix himself.
  21. Sorry I did not realize you were an LSU fan. It's in your name but it didn't register that there would be non-Texas fans in this thread. I still don't really understand the comment. With Mack we ended up in purgatory because of his accomplishments and the goodwill he had built up. Herman does not have enough of either to coast for 5 years. I think he'll either win big or the team will implode dramatically. Our program has had extreme highs and extreme lows every year under Herman so far. Eventually one of those two will win out. And it's not looking good. I think Malzahn is a more apt comparison than Mack. And sorry I didn't mean to take a shot at LSU. Y'all are hot right now and probably have a great future but there are still lots of questions this off season. I have no idea how it will play out but you'll be one of the most interesting teams in the country this offseason
  22. Pretty sure the next few years will be the same for both of us bud
  23. Washington and Naivar's units have at least shown a ton of improvement over the course of the season. Good DB play and stout run D by the DL are the only things holding this defense together. For me there are three tiers of coaches right now: Fire: Orlando, Warehime, Mehringer, Meekins Can see both sides but I don't personally have a strong opinion: Washington, Naivar, Herman, Drayton, Giles Keep: Hand, Beck
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