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HookEm

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Posts posted by HookEm

  1. On 9/19/2024 at 10:46 AM, BabaYaga said:

    Driving/parking on the AR campus on game days......shoot me in the face

    Ha. Yes, exactly.  What a cluster F.  We ended up parking at the high school for $20 and walking to the game.  That will be my plan when we go back for the UT vs. Pig game in November.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. 12 hours ago, GTNY said:

    This is also all historical looking.

    Opinions vary, but I think looking historically is much more valid than just looking at the last 5 years. Coaches change and teams run hot and cold. Taking a longer view smooths that out. Long term results also generate lasting fan engagement which results in infrastructure improvements.  Those improvements generates better recruiting and more long term success and the cycle continues.

    Take Houston for example. They currently have a great coach in Samson. He is 68 years old. They have made the tourney 6 of the last 7 years and have gone to a Final Four, an Elite Eight and 3 more Sweet 16s.  Over that time, their attendance has grown to the point that they were at capacity last year (2,635 -> 3,705 -> 3,661 -> 6,052 -> 6,817 -> 7,150 -> 7,400).  For reference, you need 12,000+ attendance to crack the top-30. 

    What is going to happen when Sampson retires? Odds are low that they will hire someone who replicates his success.  More likely they will gradually trend back to their long term averages and draw 3,000 fans and be mediocre.

    On the other hand, Arkansas averaged 19,000 fans last year, despite being down, and are generally in the top-10 in attendance.  If I had to bet who will have a better next 30 years between Houston and Arkansas, I would take Arkansas all day every day.  I also expect schools like Wisconsin are going to beat out TCU and BYU, even if they are a little down at the moment.  

     

  3. Quote

    This move pushes us to a spot where the Big 12 can credibly say “if you cut us out of the football playoff, we’re cutting you out of the basketball playoff”.  

    The big thing the Big 12 has going for it in basketball is lack of really crappy teams at the bottom, at least as it currently stands.  They are having a pretty good run in hoops, but in terms of true blue bloods, they currently only have one: Kansas. 

    If the SEC wanted, they could add UNC and then suddenly they have the top two brands in college basketball: Kentucky and UNC.  Nobody is locking Kentucky and UNC out of the tourney.  Get real.  Adding UConn doesn't get the Big 12 anywhere close to that outcome.

    According to Kenpom, here are the top 64 team hoops program rankings since 1997:

    • SEC: 2. Kentucky, 10. Texas, 11. Florida, 16. Tennessee, 25. Alabama, 30. OU, 36. Arkansas, 41. Auburn, 47. LSU, 53. MSU, 54. Mizzou, 60. Aggy, 62. Vandy
      • 1 top-5, 5 top-25, 13 top-64
    • ACC: 1. Duke, 4. UNC, 15. Louisville, 21. Syracuse, 26. Virginia, 35. FSU, 37. Stanford, 39. Pitt, 43. NC State, 45. Miami, 49. Notre Dame, 55. Clemson, 57. Wake 
      • 2 top-5, 4 top-25, 13 top-64
    • BIG12: 3. Kansas, 5. Arizona, 14. Baylor, 27. Cincinnati, 29. Okie St, 32. West Virginia, 38. Iowa State, 44. Houston, 48. Tech, 50. K-State, 52. BYU, 58. Colorado, 61. ASU, 63. Utah
      • 2 top-5, 3 top-25, 14 top-64
    • BIG10: 6. MSU, 12. UCLA, 13. OSU, 17. Wisconsin, 18. Purdue, 19. Michigan, 20. Illinois, 22. Maryland, 23. Indiana, 24. Oregon, 34. USC, 46. Iowa, 51. Washington
      • 0 top-5, 10 top-25, 13 top-64
    • Other: 7. UConn, 8. Villanova, 9. Gonzaga, 28. Memphis, 31. Marquette, 33. Xavier, 40. Creighton, 56. Butler, 59. Providence, 64. SDSU

    In terms of the top basketball programs over that period, you would have to say the ACC is the strongest at the top, but the Big 10 is the deepest with ten of the top-25.  Really though, they all look about equal and the Big 12 doesn't stand out in any way.  And while teams like Baylor, TCU and BYU are good right now, they are only a hire away from being terrible.  

  4. The Big 12 would be really stupid to add UCONN.  The ACC is on the verge of implosion. There will be much better schools to add in the near future.  They should be gearing up to add FSU, Miami, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Louisville, etc.  There are probably 10 schools I would add before UCONN.

    This is the litmus test:  Is anyone going to tune in to watch X team play Texas Tech in football in October?  I would tune in to watch Miami vs. Tech.  Or Virginia Tech vs. Tech.  Louisville vs. Tech could be fun.  Nobody cares about UCONN vs. Tech or any other member of the Big 12.

     

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  5. The top end of the Big 12 will be outstanding, but the depth of the SEC might actually be better this year. 

    Here are ESPN's early preseason rankings:

    SEC - 1 top-10, 9 top-25

    • #2 Alabama
    • #11 Auburn
    • #12 Texas A&M
    • #13 Tennessee
    • #14 Arkansas
    • #20 Ole Miss
    • #21 Florida
    • #22 Texas
    • #23 Kentucky

    Big 12 - 5 top-10, 6 top-25

    • #1 Kansas
    • #4 Houston
    • #6 Baylor
    • #7 Iowa State
    • #9 Arizona
    • #19 Cincinnati

    Here are CBS's early preseason rankings:

    SEC - 2 top-10, 7 top-25

    • #2 Alabama
    • #10 Auburn
    • #11 Texas A&M
    • #13 Arkansas
    • #14 Tennessee
    • #20 Texas
    • #22 Florida

    Big 12 - 4 top-10, 6 top-25

    • #1 Kansas
    • #3 Houston
    • #6 Iowa State
    • #7 Baylor
    • #16 Arizona
    • #25 Cincinnati
    • Like 2
  6. Horton was the definition of a journeyman. He played for four different schools in his college career and he was inefficient at every stop, averaging only 38% FG over his last two years.  But last year for us he was even worse, and even his free throws dropped off.  When someone goes from 87% FT down to 71%, I attribute a lot of it to conditioning, especially when they are expected to play defense at a higher level.  And Horton looked fat and out of shape, even in the 20 minutes per game.  His defense was generally abysmal. 

    Then you have Weaver who is in better shape than 99% of players on the court. Running around tipping balls, getting steals, etc. And even though it SEEMED like he was playing recklessly due to his raw speed, he didn't turn the ball over much.

    I like RT and have been a supporter, but managing these two dudes was definitely a red mark on his time as head coach here.

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  7. I really like Chendall Weaver. I view him as a poor man's Russell Westbrook. He is a perfect spark plug off the bench and can really attack the rim from the perimeter.  I have no doubt that his 3P% will improve as he gains comfort at this level of competition.

    The stats don't really show what an impact player he is.  He by far led the team in offensive rebounds during conference, even over guys like Dillon Mitchell. And he only had 7 turnovers across 18 conference games.

    It is criminal that he was losing time to Ithiel Horton. I dare say we would have won 2-3 more games, and moved up to a 5-6 seed if he had gotten more minutes.  These games stand out:

    • K-State - Lost by 4. Weaver got 11 min while Horton played 32!
    • Baylor - Lost by 8 (giving up a huge lead). Weaver got 13 min. Horton got 27.
    • UCF - Lost by 6. Weaver got 4 minutes vs. Horton's 35. And they killed us with their energy and on the glass.
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  8. There are countless examples of teams being very successful in CBB without a dominant big.  Last year, Houston went 32-5 as a 1-seed and didn't have a single player over 6'8 who got more than 5 mpg:

    • J'Wan Roberts - 6'7 - 27 mpg
    • Ja'Vier Francis - 6'8 - 21 mpg
    • Joseph Tugler - 6'7 - 16 mpg
    • Cedric Lath - 6'9 - 5 mpg

    In 2023, Miami beat us in the tourney on route to a Final Four. Here were their bigs:

    • Norchad Omier - 6'7 - 29 mpg
    • Anthony Walker - 6'9 - 10 mpg
    • AJ Casey - 6'9 - 6 mpg

    We are a lot bigger than either of the above teams and also have really good size at the guard and wing positions.  And for bigs we have:

    • Kadin Shedrick - 6'11 
    • Jayson Kent - 6'8 
    • Arthur Kaluma - 6'7 
    • Ze'Rik Onyema - 6'8
    • Nicholas Codie - 6'9
    • Devon Pryor - 6'7

    We could easily trot out a lineup like this that will out-size just about anybody we go up against:

    • Julian Larry - 6'3
    • Tre Johnson - 6'6
    • Jayson Kent - 6'8
    • Arthur Kaluma - 6'7
    • Kadin Shedrick - 6'11
    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. 6 hours ago, Js1 said:

    yeah this is weird, even for Texas fans. Lusting after a guy who hasn’t coached a single college game, ever

    Ok fine, but that wasn't really my point in bringing it up.  My main point is that there is no chance Terry would be doing as good of a job with South Sudan as Ivey.  Does anyone on this site disagree?

  10. Agree. And Durant's game should continue to age like fine wine.   That lets me kick Tatum to the bench. And I'll add Cooper Flagg and jetison Jarrett Allen. 

    I don't see anybody beating this team. 

    Starters

    • PG - Jalen Brunson - 31
    • SG - Anthony Edwards - 26
    • SF - Kevin Durant - 39 
    • PF - Paolo Banchero - 25
    • C - Chet Holmgren - 25

    Bench

    • PG - Haliburton - 28
    • SG - Devin Booker - 31
    • SF - Jason Tatum - 30 
    • PF - Cooper Flagg - 21
    • C - Bam Adabayo - 31
  11. Regarding the 2028 team, we are going to have to see a complete changing of the guard.  Only two players on the current team will be under 30 when the next Olympics roll around. 

    Durant will be LeBron's current age in the next Olympics. Would be great to see him still out there, but I'm not counting on it.  Here is my guess, but who knows what will happen over four years.

    • Starters
      • PG - Jalen Brunson - 31 - He is a dawg and can score and distribute. Will be late prime.
      • SG - Anthony Edwards - 26 - Will be an absolute beast by then
      • SF - Jason Tatum - 30 - Meh, but probably the best bet.
      • PF - Paolo Banchero - 25 - I assume he will be all-NBA by then
      • C - Chet Holmgren - 25 - If he stays healthy he will likely be the starter
    • Bench
      • PG - Haliburton - 28
      • SG - Devin Booker - 31
      • SF - Brandon Miller - 25 - I think he has the most upside of the young SF options
      • PF - Bam Adabayo - 31
      • C - Jarrett Allen - 30 - He is still improving. I would rather have him on the team than Embiid right now.
    • Others
      • Ja Morant - 28 - He was 2nd Team All-NBA as a 22 yr old. If he gets his head on strait he could make the team
      • LaMello Ball - 26 - He is still very young and definitely has the talent to make the team four years from now
      • Zion Williamson - 27 - Dude is going to have to lose some weight and stay healthy. Could be a fun add if so.
      • Evan Mobley - 26 - Already all-defense at 22 and still improving
      • Tyrese Maxey - 27 - Already an all-star (6'2)
      • Scottie Barnes - 26
      • Jalen Williams - 27
      • Desmond Bane - 29
    • Too Old
      • Derrick White - 34
      • Joel Embiid - 34
      • Anthony Davis - 35
      • Jrue Holiday - 39
      • Kevin Durant - 39
      • Steph Curry - 40
      • LeBron - 43

     

  12. Man, watching Royal Ivey coach South Sudan has been fun.  He is doing an incredible job.  There is zero... ZERO chance that Rodney Terry would be doing a comparable job.  And I say that as one of the bigger RT apologists on this site.

    We are going to F around and watch him get picked up by another school or NBA team. I really think he is going to do well when he gets his break.  

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  13. Yeah we were staying in a condo just north of the Marriott.  There used to be 20 ft of beach in front of the condo and it was all washed away, including the stairs to get there.  

    If going again, I would probably go at a different time of year. The weather wasn't unbearable, but also wasn't the break from Texas heat that I needed.  Texas was actually cooler while we were there.

    We went to Cozumel last summer.  The family all liked Cayman better, but honestly it felt a lot like going to a Miami suburb outside of the crazy clear water and great beach.  I think I enjoy the culture in Mexico better personally.  It is also significantly cheaper, so for the same price the condo was MUCH nicer in Cozumel.  Also the direct SWA flight to Cozumel from Austin was awesome.

    Next summer, I think we will try Puerto Rico. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  14. I must have been there the same time as all of you. Got back on Thursday night.  Unfortunately the last hurricane washed away much of the sand in front of the condo we rented on 7 Mile Beach.

    The weather was hot, but generally great before noon and after 4 PM.  The best thing to do is get up early and hit the snorkel spots... come back a take a nap after lunch... and then hit the beach again going into sunset (which is always fantastic).

    The snorkeling was just unreal as usual:

    • Eden Rock - just great, probably the best shore snorkeling I have ever done.  I could do it all day. Like you all, we saw some awesome fish. There are 5 ft tarpon schooling out in the coral. 
    • Gamma shipwreck - We snorkeled around sunset.  What an awesome easy snorkel spot to spend an hour. 
    • Smith Cove - Saw a reef shark, which was scary.  
    • Cemetery Beach - Really nice beach with some decent shore snorkeling 50 yds from shore. Saw a 300 pound turtle. 

    Food was really really good overall, but expensive (which is expected)

    • Chicken! Chicken! - Ate lunch when we got there, and then got it for takeout again a few days later. So good.  
    • Pane & Pasta - Solid pizza spot
    • Seven Mile Burger - Great burger and mahi salad. And relatively cheap
    • Ms. Pipers Kitchen - Awesome spot behind the Hampton. Tremendous food and a great atmosphere
    • Peppers Bar & Grill - Decent dinner. Had some island curry goat that was pretty good
  15. 8 hours ago, Derka said:

    joel embiid: 39.6%, by far the highest in the league 

    This is the key stat. You give any all-star level player in the NBA 40% usage and they are going to put up insane numbers.  Embiid hasn't suddenly become a great passer, he just has the ball all the freaking time.  His assists trend linearly with his usage. If he had AD's 26.7% usage, he would average 3.7 assists per game, which is almost exactly what AD averages.

    Regardless, when someone commands 40% usage, their team isn't going to win in the playoffs.  I can't stand watching his teams play.

     

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    • Like 1
  16. I think it will improve a little once all the extra covid years are burned up after this year. There are a ton of 5th year players going somewhere new for their final year. I don’t think you will see nearly as many just leave in their final year.

    Also when the 5th years are gone the balance of power will shift back a little bit to the elite freshmen. The situation is still dynamic. The formula for winning the last 2-3 years is going to change this year and then change again the following year.

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