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Recruiting - 2020
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Everything posted by HookEm
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It's weird that so many people have this wrong opinion of you.
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Really the worst part of hiring RT is that it is going to be very hard to fire him. The resources at UT are so good (the NIL money, the new arena, Austin, the UT marketing machine, the money to hire good assistants), that it will be hard for Terry to fail bad enough to get fired. Simply making the tournament every year will likely be enough for him to finish his contract. I really think subconsciously (or consciously) everyone is aware of this. So I think all this fighting really boils down to the anti-RT folks hoping that we go ahead and fail hard enough that we have to fire him, so we can move on and get a great coach. While the pro-RT folks are hoping that he can defy the odds and get us to a high level, because we know we are probably keeping him through his contract anyway. I don't think either side is delusional. We all have the same data.
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Success probably means the same as for the "anti-RT" folks. For me, it means being a top-10 program, which means regularly finishing in the KenPom top-10 and regularly being a top 1-3 seed. And making 2nd weekend about half the time, with a Final Four sprinkled in every now and again. Missing the tournament should almost never happen. Unfortunately we have never achieved the kind of long-term success that we are capable of. Certainly not with Shaka. Not with Beard (key words being long-term). Not with Penders. And not really even with Barnes. I don't think a single one of the "pro RT" folks think he is capable of any of the above. I don't.
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Literally nobody. There isn't a single UT fan that I know of, on this board or in real life, who believes that RT would have gotten the job if the Beard fiasco had happened in the offseason and we opened up an actual coaching search. All of the "RT apologists" are simply rooting for the team and providing a check against the doom and gloom. Not one of us believe he is on the same level as Chris Beard (or Tom Izzo or Bill Self). Let me repeat that for the millionth time. Not one of us believe he is on the same level as Chris Beard (or Tom Izzo or Bill Self). But, I think a lot of us tire of the seemingly unfair characterization of RT. He actually did a good job at Fresno State. You could argue that he did the best job of any coach there in the last 40 years. And his tenure at UTEP was short and interrupted by Covid right in the middle of it. At both spots he recruited way better than their historical averages. People don't have to mischaracterize RT as a bottom quartile coach, to show that he isn't good enough for Texas. Once again, not one of us believe he is on the same level as Chris Beard, and we all believe that is the caliber of coach we can get. But... RT is our coach for at least a few years and I'm rooting for him to succeed. And so far he is doing better than his previous record would suggest. He has worked Porter Moser, a coach who had better accolades than him going into the job, coaching at a school with arguably a better basketball history. I also wouldn't trade him for Jerome Tang or Wes Miller or Michael Boynton. He also finished the year ranked better than OUR historic mean over the last 30 years. And those years were under the leadership of three coaches who have all won National Coach of the Year. So, I would say he is doing a pretty decent job all things considered, but let's see what happens over the next few weeks.
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Imagine thinking finishing in the top half of the Big 12 and top-25 in NET is average. Lololol. You may expect more at Texas, but it isn’t average.
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I will grant you that Texas had the better roster this year. But once again, you are conveniently ignoring that McCasland had the opportunity for a MUCH more talented roster if he had simply done a better job keeping the talent that was available to him. So... McCasland is the better gameday coach and does more with less. But RT is better at acquiring and keeping talent. Agree?
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I think it lays out like this: Lose to K-State - 8 / 9 seed Beat K-State, lose to ISU - 7 /8 seed Beat K-State, beat ISU, lose to Baylor/KU - 7 seed Beat K-State, beat ISU, beat Baylor/KU, lose to UH - 6 seed Win Big 12 Tournament - 5 seed A Big 12 tournament championship would give us 3 more Q1 wins, bringing our total to 8 Q1 wins. There are currently only 8 teams in the country with that many. A 5 seed seems reasonable at that point.
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Tech hired Grant McCasland March 31st of last year. That means he had the entire transfer portal window to convince existing Tech players to stay and to assemble a roster via the portal. Coming out of last season, he had: Pop Isaacs - Big 12 All-Freshman team and one of the best returning guards in the conference Jaylon Tyson - Transferred to Cal (May 12) and has averaged 19.6 PTS, 6.8 TRB Daniel Batcho - Transferred to Louisiana Tech (Apr 23) and is averaging 14.9 PTS, 9.8 TRB Fardaws Aimaq - Transferred to Cal (Apr 27) and is averaging 14.7 PTS, 11.0 TRB Elijah Fisher - Transferred to DePaul and is averaging 10.4 PTS, 3.7 TRB KJ Allen - Transferred to Portland State and is averaging 13.0 PTS, 7.0 TRB Lamar Washington - meh Kerwin Walton - meh D'maurian Williams - meh Robert Jennings - meh CJ Williams - meh So basically he kept Isaacs and a bunch of mediocre players and let a bunch of really solid to elite players go in the portal. Should Terry get no credit for keeping Disu and Hunter? Or for convincing Mitchell to withdraw from the NBA? All we really lost to transfer was Arterio Morris (who very well could go to prison) and Rowan Brumbaugh (who redshirted). I give McCasland credit for doing very well with what he has, but don't act like he isn't responsible for the talent level on the court. He chose all those transfers, and he let a lot of talent get away.
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If Tech has a weaker roster, why do they have a weaker roster? Who had a higher starting point April 1 of last year?
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For every Bill Self, there are a lot of coaches who are successful at small colleges and then are unsuccessful once they get to a big time school and have to do all the other non basketball stuff. Or are successful with lunchpail athletes and then suck when they get elite athletes who are completely different in terms of coaching needs, play style and expectations. My hope with RT is that he is the opposite. Someone who is better (relatively) at a big time school than they should be based on their overall record. A guy who isn’t necessarily elite as a gameday coach. And who is a good but not great developer of talent, but is someone who knows how to motivate the blue chip athletes and manage all the alpha personalities. Someone who is self aware enough to hire elite assistants who can do the heavy lifting with player development. Basically the anti- Shaka Smart.
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Izzo's skill was taking guys in the National 30-50 range and getting them to stay four years while coaching them up and getting them to play well together. In this day of NIL and transfer portal, that strategy may not work so well anymore. If a player in that range isn't getting minutes from day 1, they are likely just going to transfer.
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McCasland has done a tremendous job this year. Agree. I'm only saying that he wasn't a complete rock star at UNT. Tech hiring him was a bit of a gamble that seems to have paid off. The RT hire was also a gamble. Maybe it will pay off as well. Maybe it won't.
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Out of curiosity, who are your top-10? I would go: Bill Self Tom Izzo Scott Drew (uggh) Mark Few Kelvin Sampson (uggh) Then the following in some order: Dan Hurley, Tony Bennett, Chris Beard, Rick Pitino, John Calipari, Nate Oats, Rick Barnes, Matt Painter, Jamie Dixon So maybe Beard isn't top-5. Hard to put him over any I listed in the top-5, especially with his current baggage. But, he has a lot more runway than some of the others on the list, so he will likely get back there.
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Grant McCasland made the NCAA Tournament one time in 7 years coaching at UNT and Arkansas State. Rodney Terry made it once in 10 years at Fresno and UTEP. Not a huge difference. I agree that RT is not an elite coach and probably will never be one. But to date he is outperforming Shaka at Texas, who many thought was an elite coach both before and after his time at Texas. And the team has finished strong, both this year and last year - something we missed in the later Barnes years. If he makes the tournament every year, it is going to be hard to get rid of him.
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I will admit that he has done a good job. I still think not making the tournament is a failure of sorts this year, but that is only because I view him as a top-5 coach. I'm sure he will make the tourney next year and will be a thorn in our ass for years to come. I disagree a little about how shitty the Ole Miss job is. I think he will be there for 3-4 years. Maybe longer. There is no reason a coach as good as Beard can't make them into a national power. I think their building blocks are at least as good as Tech. Probably better. Other coaches have had some success there, but it has been inconsistent.
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Derka labels anyone who ever says anything positive about Terry, as a "Terry apologist" or a "sunshine pumper". He also constantly posts that Terry isn't good enough for the program (even in this very thread within the last hour). In a thread talking about an ass whipping of our arch rival. We don't need to go back and find hundreds of posts. Just scroll up.
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I never said we are a great team, but we are close to being one. The distance between being a great team and a good team is often very slim. If we had won those games, we might be a great team. But we didn't. We are who we are, and we deserve the results that we got. You love to use KenPom to dissect and shit on this team, but KenPom has us at 25, which is a lot closer to 15 than it is to 50. Teams in the 40-50 range don't have a resume like this team. If they did, they would be ranked 25 like us and not 50.
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We have had some really close losses. The WV and UCF losses should have been wins. The UH overtime loss. The Baylor loss. If all of those are wins, we are probably a 3-4 seed.
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Brock has been playing a bit better than he was 6 weeks ago. It seems like Terry likes playing Brock + Disu and Mitchell + Shedrick. Seems to be working out. We haven't had a "bad" loss in quite a while, even though some of them have been painful. And we have a few very satisfying wins, including this one and the ass whipping at Tech.
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This game is far from over unfortunately.
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Getting an 11 seed would be great. Playing Miss State and then Creighton is very doable.
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Bah. Of course the arena plays a role in helping turn a program around. It shows that the administration is willing to spend big money on the program, and it helps you recruit better players. It helps generate and maintain fan interest. Every one of us was beyond thrilled at the combined prospect of what Chris Beard and the brand new Moody Center was going to mean for UT hoops. Of course, a great arena isn't a golden ticket that will guarantee success, but Chris Beard should be able to leverage it better than any other coach that I know of. But you're right. There is no difference between Ole Miss and Prairie View, who plays in the shitty SWAC, in a shitty stadium built in the 60s in front of <checks notes> an average of 1,053 fans. 🙄 You don't see Prairie View opening a new $100M stadium.
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Throughout this whole debate, I have never agued that Beard isn't a top-5 coach. (Although that may be a bit generous now that his reputation has taken a hit). The measure of success I used was not win/loss%, but simply making the tournament. And in the year you referenced, Izzo STILL made the tourney, just as he has for the last 25+ years in a row. My whole point is that how we judge success and failure should change in this era of NIL and the portal. Great coaches don't need 3-4 years to turn a program around when they are turning over practically their whole team every year anyway. Again, 70% of the Ole Miss team was brought in by Beard and most are upper classmen. None of this is to say that Beard isn't a great coach - he is. It is also laughable to compare Ole Miss to schools like Prairie View A&M. Ole Miss is only a few years removed from opening a brand new, awesome $100M basketball arena. This site ranks it the #12 arena in all of college basketball: https://www.stadiumjourney.com/stadiums/stadium-journey-s-top-25-college-basketball-arenas-of-2023 Maybe he will turn it around next year. Or maybe he will bolt for greener pastures. If he leaves now, at least it will be a longer tenure than he had at UNLV.
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