HookEm

I was really pimping this team in the offseason. And funny enough all the things you mentioned turned out to be true. Dillon Mitchell has made a leap. Shedrick is generally better than expected. Abmas is as efficient as ever. The team has some great athletes in Mitchell, Weaver and Hunter. But something is off. The chemistry is poor and the guards aren’t playing well. For this team to be good, Hunter has to be the lead guard and set the tone on offense and defense. He has majorly disappointed. And Horton has played even worse. So Abmas is having to carry the whole load. Or maybe the other guards are playing poorly because Abmas is hard to coexist with. Regardless it is ugly right now. Disu will help things, but it won’t matter if the guards aren’t better. Is that because of coaching? Maybe. Or maybe it is just poorly constructed. I just know I don’t enjoy what I’m watching much right now.

I haven’t been able to watch yet (or read this thread) but I see Abmas had zero free throws. Does this staff realize they have one of the best free throw shooters in America and he IS NOT GETTING TO THE LINE!!! \Rant

I don't know, his white guard ABSOLUTELY torched us last night.

My Texas +16.5 isn’t looking good.

This is a terrible terrible loss. But ultimately it doesn’t matter.

Yeah we have had so many incredible running backs. You even missed two of our best in Priest Holmes and Eric Metcalf. Here is the list of UT NFL running backs. I thought I would see where Ced stacked up. The list is sorted by career fantasy points... 1655.4 - Priest Holmes – 3x All Pro, 3x Pro Bowl 1644.9 - Ricky Williams – 1x All Pro, 1x Pro Bowl 1426.6 - Earl Campbell – 3x All Pro, 5x Pro Bowl, Hall of Fame 1367.6 - Jamaal Charles – 2x All Pro, 4x Pro Bowl 1067.7 - Eric Metcalf – 2x All Pro, 3x Pro Bowl 863.0 - Cedric Benson 474.6 - Roosevelt Leaks 360.2 - D’Onta Foreman (active) 258.8 - Malcolm Brown 158.4 - Chris Ogbonnaya 150.7 - Fozzy Whittaker 135.9 - Selvin Young 126.3 - Bijan Robinson (active) 68.1 - Ahmard Hall 42.1 - Roschon Johnson (active) 24.1 - Keaontay Ingram (active) And in the coming years we could also add Brooks, Baxter and Blue.

Revised using the odds Bolverk's posted... Texas wins (88%) plus FSU loses (25.6%) - 100% we are in (.225) Michigan loses (10%) - 100% we are in (0.088) Bama wins (47.9%) - 50% chance we are in (0.211) Oregon wins (75.8%) - 5% chance we are in (0.033) The odds that at least ONE of the above of the above events happens is ~46%.

I put our odds as follows: Texas wins (85%) plus FSU loses (40%) - 100% we are in (.340) Michigan loses (10%) - 100% we are in (0.085) Bama wins (35%) - 50% chance we are in (0.149) Oregon wins (75%) - 5% chance we are in (0.032) The odds that at least ONE of the above of the above events happens is ~45%. That is pretty close to our +130 Vegas odds for making the CFP.

I agree if Georgia wins. There is no chance we get in over Oregon if it is a straight up decision. But if Bama wins, I think that changes the calculation. If we all win, they will have to decide whether to leave out the SEC, leave us out who beat Bama, or leave out the PAC 12. I think in that case Oregon COULD lose out. In that scenario, I put the odds of losing out at: Bama - 40% Texas - 35% Oregon - 25% Bama might jump us, but I don't think it is a certainty at all.

If Oregon, Texas and Alabama all win it is going to get very interesting. Texas win over Alabama will look even better when Bama is #4-#5 after beating Georgia. Oregon's loss will look a lot worse when Washington drops to 12-1 and ~#8. We will still have the best win of the year. Bama's miracle win over Auburn could be the thing that keeps them out of the playoffs. I put the odds at 50/50 that we get in over Alabama and the SEC is left out - as crazy as that sounds.

Agree 100%. It was possibly my all-time low as a sports fan... and on my birthday no less. Right up there with Chris Simms turning the ball over 100 times in the 2001 Big 12 Championship. And ACU beating us in the tourney. And Michael Crabtree's catch. But I think it trumps them all because we were so set up for long-term success. I have no doubt Beard would have won us a title eventually. I dare say FOR US, he was the top coach in the country given his age and fact he is an alumni. We could also use a shameless promoter like Beard (and he is the absolute best at that). There is literally no coach I would have rather had than him. And for Beard, there is nowhere else where he could win like he could at Texas WHILE living the life that he wants to live. He may eventually find his way to Kentucky or UNC - but his total life situation there will not be as good as it could have been here. I like Terry and still think we are set up for success. I think we could have a period of success comparable to Barnes best years where we make a string of Sweet 16/Elite 8 and maybe occasionally better. But his ceiling is lower than Beard. Then again, I suppose his floor is higher than Beard, who is one more F-up away from being out of basketball.

Seems about right based on what I've seen. Potential to get up in the top 10 if Disu comes back and plays to his potential.

Agree 100%. I just think with a guy like Abmas, you try to put him in a position to take BETTER shots, and help him find his rhythm. But I would ask him to shoot more, not less - and to work his ass off to get good shots. I will say it again, he needs to get to the line. That is the easiest way to lock in your shot during the game. I would tell him to attack the F out of the basket. He can finish - and if he doesn't he is going to get fouled a lot. Prior to today he was averaging less than a FT a game. That is horrid for a guy who can shoot 92%+. He needs to be averaging 5+ FT a game. I also haven't been THAT disappointed with his defense. It starts slow, but he seems to lock in as the game goes on. His defense at the end of the UCONN game was decent IMO. Not sure I can go that far, but I was thinking similarly today watching him run around grabbing key boards, blocking shots, stealing and disrupting all over the place. I would say Shedrick has been our best player. He has an 18.3 BPM. Next highest is Brock with 5.6. It would have completely and totally changed the UCONN game if he was out there. If we added Disu as well, I think we go from being out played down low to actually having the advantage.

You could also make a case that he is our best player. He is leading the team in scoring (15.2 PPG) while shooting 41% 3PT%, 47 2P% and 88% FT%. He has a 2:1 AST-TO ratio. His usage is down ~30% vs. what he is used to at Oral Roberts and he is still just finding his place on the team. He will keep getting better as the year progresses - especially once Disu is back and teams HAVE to respect the P&R. We aren't used to seeing a gunner quite like Abmas. He needs to be a volume shooter - and he has been a winner doing so. It doesn't feel to me like he is forcing terrible shots - and his shooting percentages are all solid for a guy with his volume. When he is matched up against big guards, it may not be pretty but we will just have to adjust.

Abmas can score. There is no doubt about that. I really like it so much better when he is attacking instead of just waiting to shoot 3s.

Ha. And immediately Brock throws a bad pass turnover.

Brock is the best passer on this team. Fight me.

I think a good nuclear war movie updated to modern times would play well right now.

Lol. I don't take it personally at all and I didn't respond emotionally. I'm a fan of the program and simply calling out BS. I very rationally laid out a lot of good things that Terry has done over the last 6 months. You on the other hand come in after a difficult loss and claim it as validation that Terry is going to fail.

Then you simply aren't paying attention, or are so biased that you can't recognize anything positive that the man does. Just last week we signed the #4 recruit in the country (our 3rd highest ranked recruit ever) and currently have the #4 or #5 overall class. Terry was also a monster in the portal and completely reloaded the team. Most of the players we have lost have turned out to be knuckleheads (recruited by Beard no less), so that is addition by subtraction. Terry added Frank Haith to the staff. You may not like him as a head coach, but he is one of the top assistants in the country. Our players, Mitchell and Hunter in particular, have improved a lot over the offseason. We were just within 6 points in crunch time vs. the defending National Champs, in effectively an away game, with our pair of potential All-Big 12 big men hurt on the bench. Terry may not be the best coach in the country, but he has the program in a great position. Who specifically did you want us to hire instead?

Looking at Abmas career stats a little more this morning. The biggest thing that jumps out to me is that he simply isn't getting to the line. For Oral Roberts, he was getting to the line ~8 times per 100 possessions. So far this year, only 1.4 times. Maybe he is still learning the offense and finding his place in it. Maybe this also gets to Derka's point on our inability to get him in a pick & roll without Disu. I can see that being a great way to get him into attacking mode. Tyrese Hunter is showing positive improvement in just about every facet of his game. Better efficiency at every level. His shooting stroke looks great. Also a quick note on Dillon Mitchell - his shot is looking so much better. He is shooting ~71% from the line over the last 4 games. Way better than his 40% FT last year. I was actually encouraged by our defense yesterday. Things started shaky, but improved as the game went on. Our guards were playing great defense in the second half. UCONN was just making shots - a lot of them very difficult shots. I think we will see a lot of improvement over the next few games.

Abmas looks out of shape to me. I was expecting someone at his size to be lightening quick and running around all over the place. He can’t really create his own shot, so why not run through a bunch of screens to get wide open shots? I think he will eventually get going. Maybe Disu will help. Our ceiling is much lower if he is just a low efficiency chunker though.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very different Texas team tomorrow. If both teams had just shot our averages from 3 and FT, we beat them by 20 points. The fact that we pulled it out even with such putrid shooting says something about the versatility of this team. I’m still optimistic.

According to Massey, here are the odds each remaining undefeated goes undefeated from here out: Michigan - 50.2% Georgia - 45.1% Ohio State - 43.7% Florida State - 41.6% Washington - 31.2% The odds that there will be four undefeated conference champions is thus 2.9% or 1 in 34. Here are the odds for the one-loss teams to win out including their respective conference champ games: Texas - 59.6% Oregon - 45.6% Alabama - 41.7% Louisville - 24.5%

I was never worried about RT's ability to recruit. When he was at Fresno, he signed the #59, 66, and #71 classes in a 4 year stretch. While not super impressive in an absolute sense, their long-term average is ~#126. At Texas he has superb facilities, a dump truck of NIL money, NBA players to assist, and a top-notch staff filled with elite recruiters. I have no doubt we are going to be up there with the best schools in the country.