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Recruiting - 2020
2019-2020 Football Season
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Everything posted by HookEm
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Also of note, this year we are following a similar pattern to last year in that we bottomed out in early January and then seemed to get better as the year went on and the team learned to play together. Last year our worst KenPom ranking was Jan 20th when we were ranked #48. We then steadily improved all the way up to finishing at #24. At this exact point, we were #36. This year, our worst KenPom ranking was on Jan 7 when we were ranked #43. We have been gradually improving and are up to #29, which is higher than last year.
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Here is the updated probability distribution based on KenPom game odds. Things are definitely looking up. 44% chance that we finish at 10-8 or better. That probably gets us a 6-seed. We are playing a lot better, and our schedule finishes a LOT easier than it started. We will be favored in at least 6 of our last 9 games, and the games where we aren't favored are toss-ups. It is the opposite for a lot of teams that are currently higher than us in the SEC standings. Vandy will likely finish 7-11. Kentucky and Miss. St could end up 8-10. We could finish as high as 6th or 7th, which might get us all the way up to a 4-5 seed.
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Disagree. I think most coaches would consider UTEP to be a step up. Since Fresno joined D1 (1970), they have only made the NCAA tourney 6 times (1 vacated). UTEP in that same timeframe has gone 13 times including a sweet 16. And this isn’t even including UTEP’s national title in 1966. It isn’t a big step up, but it is a step up. And for RT it should have been a great move to get him back to his recruiting base. We are going to eventually whack RT. It will be interesting to see where he winds up.
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RT did a pretty solid job at Fresno. He took them to the tourney for the first time in 15 years (longer than that if you consider Tark put them on probation to get there). And he was steadily improving their recruiting and final KenPom ranking. He finished his time there averaging 22 wins in his last 3 years, which was good enough to get a better gig at UTEP. I’m sure an elite coach like Self, Izzo, Beard, etc would have done even better, but it wasn’t a failure by any stretch of the imagination.
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I can see people supporting RT if the bar for success is Texas' previous history. He has already done better than Shaka. He is trending better than Tom Penders. He is doing better than Barnes last four years. He won the same number of tourney games in his first true year as Chris Beard did (and took Beard's team to the Elite 8). In UT's history, there is really only a period of about nine years with Rick Barnes that are better than what Terry is delivering. None of that is good enough. We have the money (if the right coach extracts it). We have the arena. We have the practice facilities. We have a prime regional recruiting base as well as national appeal. We have a slew of NBA players to leverage. We are in one of the best cities in the world. UT basketball should be an absolute winning machine similar to most of our other sports. Terry will never get us to that level.
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Beard is a 10/10 promoter. Literally the best that there is in college basketball. If he would have been here for 5 years, a UT hoops ticket would be the hottest seat in town. He would have packed the Erwin Center. Having a brand new Moody was icing on the cake.
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On second thought, that game should be higher up on my list of painful games. Sooooo frustrating.
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I will give Beard credit for completely and totally changing the culture with the fans though. He is an amazing promoter and there was an energy around the program. He also got guys like Ramey playing great defense.
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Are you saying that a 6-seed met expectations with that group? Not for me. 1st team All-conference in the Pac-10 isn't a 2nd tier player. Neither is 2nd team all-conference in the Big 12. You would also expect 2nd and 3rd team All-Conference players to improve the following year, as they get better and other players leave. Beard got nothing out of Tyson. He got nothing out of Askew. He got nothing out of Tre Mitchell. They all under-performed, and some of that falls on Beard. If they sucked that bad he shouldn't have recruited them. C'mon, not even close. He inherited three senior guard starters off an NCAA 3-seed team, of which Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramey were both All-Conference. Cunningham also returned and was a 15 mpg contributor. Those are great building blocks.
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If we're being honest, Beard's 21-22 Texas team underperformed. I mean, look at this roster... just full of senior All-Conference players. We had guys with 50+ starts buried deep on the bench. Marcus Carr, Senior - 3rd Team Big 10 Courtney Ramey, Senior - 3rd Team Big 12 Andrew Jones, Senior - 2nd Team Big 12 Timmy Allen, Senior - 1st Team All Pac 10 Tre Mitchell, Junior - 1st Team All A-10 Christian Bishop, Senior - Big East 4th in rebounding, 1st in TS% Jase Febres, Senior - 61 starts at Texas Dylan Disu, Junior - 48 starts at Vanderbilt Devin Askew, Soph - 5-star transfer Jaylon Tyson, Freshman - National top-35 recruit (#20 draft pick in 2024) Brock Cunningham, Junior Avery Benson, Senior - Culture guy That roster should have been better than a 6 seed. Yes, we go screwed in a bad matchup with Purdue, but that wouldn't have happened if we took care of business during the season. We got swept by F'ing Texas Tech. We lost to KU in OT. Lost in the first round of the B12 tourney to TCU. Lost a few more close games on top of that. In the end, we lost 12 games, worse than Shaka's 8 losses the year before. And only got a single tourney win.
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That's fair. I just had on the burnt orange blinders. That team was really good though, probably one of the top 3 most talented and experienced team we have ever had. We had won 8 of the last 10, had two wins over KU (3-seed), beat WV (3-seed), won 2 of 3 against Okie State (4-seed), beat Tech (6-seed), beat UNC and Indiana out of conference. And 5 of our 7 losses were by a combined 10 points. We had TEN national top-100 players on the team (compared to 5 this year). Our guards and key players were all juniors and seniors. It was a recipe for a deep run. Oh well, Shaka gonna Shaka. Give Tom Izzo that team and he might win a title. Good riddance.
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Especially when he is an alumni. Beard was the most no-brainer hire we have ever made.
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Fuck
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Kaluma needs to stop with the hero ball
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Shaka’s team that lost to ACU was really good. That loss was especially painful because both of my sisters went to ACU. They still give me shit about it and will likely have eternal scoreboard on me. Fooook!!! I really think if we had won that game we might have made the Elite 8 or better. If we won, we play #45 KenPom UCLA. We win that game, then we play #23 KenPom BYU. That is also winnable. Boom Elite 8 game against Michigan (that only ended up beating UCLA by 2). Matt Coleman was really good that year. And then we had 3 NBA front court players in Kai Jones, Jericho Sims and Greg Brown. Plus Courtney Ramey and a healthy Andrew Jones. That is a boat load of athleticism. The previous year Shaka closed the year winning 5 of 6 before Covid ended the season. The year before that, Shaka won his last 5 in a row, winning the NIT. If he wins that game, we were making a run. And if that happens, he might still be our coach.
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My ranking of painful losses, all in the NCAA tourney: 2021 - ACU - Absolutely horrendous loss as a 3 seed. F this loss. F Shaka. Still pissed. 2011 - Arizona - We were a legit title contender and got absolutely robbed 2023 - Miami - FT margin of 32-15. Cost us a shot at a Final Four in Houston 2008 - Memphis - Blowout loss in the Elite 8 to #1 Memphis showed how far we were from being elite 2006 - LSU - Overtime loss in the Elite 8 as a 2-seed to 4-seed LSU cost us a Final Four 2022 - Purdue - They mauled us while the FT margin was 46-12. Holy hell. 2016 - Northern Iowa - Half court buzzer beater they showed over and over
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I hated the way we were built last year. Our two starting guards were 5'10, and neither was really a true point guard. We had to keep the ball in Abmas' hands which kept him from really using his strengths off the ball. And bigger guards would abuse them. Horton was a one-dimensional shoot first gunner, who actually wasn't even good at that. Bro shot 39% from the field. Oof. And he was also a horrible defender and bad FT shooter. Mitchell was a good defender and rebounder, but had zero offensive game outside of dunking in transition. And he was a terrible FT shooter. Brock Cunningham had no ability to score outside of spot-up 3s. And every other part of his game regressed. Dylan Disu is the focal point of the team, but was extremely soft and constantly drifted out to the perimeter. He was constantly in foul trouble Shedrick was hurt all year and also soft AF Weaver was a nice surprise, but his game is also pretty poor outside of his transition game. So bottom line, we were small and soft AF, and the team wasn't constructed in a way to make up for the deficiencies of our star players. If we had a big, defense first guard that would have helped all of Abmas issues. And if we would have had a rim protector / rebounder, that would have let Disu float around in and out of the paint, and not get into constant foul trouble. Imagine how easy it was to defend this lineup: Abmas + Hunter + Brock + Mitchell + Disu. This year, we have a team full of lengthy guards and forwards. In just about every lineup we use, we have multiple players who can create off the dribble. Six of our top-7 players shoot over 35% from 3. Tre Johnson, Kaluma, Pope and Mark can all score over 30 points. This SHOULD be a much better team defensively. And they should be much harder to stop when we have the ball.
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Most actual fans have seen the potential in this group all year. I have been saying for a year that this team looks better constructed than last year’s group. But when you have sub-par coaching you get this type of inconsistency. We could easily miss the tournament. And we could get a favorable matchup and hit 3s and make the Elite 8. That has been the case all year.
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I have no idea what is going on in this thread now.
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Tre’s draft profile, measurables, and stats aren’t that different from Klay Thompson coming out of college. If he can get drafted by someone who will develop him as a defender, it will help his all around game. He is a very aggressive competitor, but it needs to be channeled.
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Updated conference probability distribution based on KenPom single game odds: If we assume that 7-11 gives us a 50% shot to get in the tournament, then our tourney odds are about 80%. And we have better odds of going 10-8 in conference, which would probably be a 6-7 seed, than we do missing the tourney altogether.
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I have to give it to RT credit for the substitutions. I can’t believe we didn’t have Pope in as he’s probably our 3rd best player. But that lineup with him out kept clawing back into into it, and kept getting defensive stops. The formula seemed to be to get our best defenders on the court and let Tre Johnson take over on offense. It worked!
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Mine too.
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Just getting around to watching this. About 10 episodes in. Enjoying it. Seems about on the level of Sons of Anarchy. The production values are ok, but a clear step down from something like Game of Thrones. It would have been amazing on HBO.
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Tommy Lloyd would crush it at Texas
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