HookEm

I got bored yesterday and decided to look at the experience we had returning for every Texas team in the last 20 years. Note that for this analysis, transfers with experience count the same as players who have played together... so it isn't perfect. Regardless, it really shows how much our strategy has changed with NIL, transfer portal and COVID extra years. This year we have a top-3 team in terms of career experience, minutes, points and starts. The starters are particularly experienced. 2012-2018 had some really inexperienced teams. And guess what, we sucked ass for that stretch. Also, check out Durant's year (2007). Yikes! Average experience for the WHOLE team was 0.4 years.

I personally think Tyler Herro is a better player than Reaves. He was one of the best (maybe the actual best) in crunch time this year. In the 4th quarter he averaged 5.8 ppg and over 43% from 3 while shooting 100% from the FT line. He is also a year younger than Reaves. Herro is also a much better athlete. Early in his career he had a 35" vertical and it is allegedly now closer to 40". Austin Reaves measured at 25". That sucks.

FWIW, here are our seeds over the last 20 years. 2023 - 2 2022 - 6 2021 - 3 2020 - Covid. Likely 7-10 2019 - Nope 2018 - 10 2017 - Nope 2016 - 6 2015 - 11 2014 - 7 2013 - Nope 2012 - 11 2011 - 4 2010 - 8 2009 - 7 2008 - 2 2007 - 4 2006 - 2 2005 - 8 2004 - 3 2003 - 1 Man, what a crappy run we had from 2012-2020. Thanks a lot Shaka. Who knows if we will get back to where we were from 2000-2011. We always recruited well, but the highly recruited players were fools gold. I think NIL and the transfer portal will help us a lot. Now we can still go get the most coveted players, but they aren't development projects. They are full-grown men with skillz. They are proven commodities and all-conference type players.

Here are the odds of advancing to various rounds based on seeding. To "expect" a Sweet 16, you really need to be a 1 or 2 seed. As a 4 seed you have less than a coin flip chance of making it. So if someone hears me say that I expect to make the Sweet 16, it could easily be interpreted that as I expect us to be a 1 or 2 seed. I agree that would be a pretty sunshine pumping take for this particular group. So... from here out I think I will talk about expectations in terms of either seeding or ranking. To expect a Final Four, you need a team that is more dominant than we have ever had at Texas. But I think it is reasonable to expect that Texas will get a 4 seed or better in most years given our resources.

Bird would be absolutely insane in today’s NBA. I can’t even imagine how many 3s he would be hitting. He was also a great rebounder and passer - and a near psychopath as a competitor. I still think at his peak he was a top 3-4 player in NBA history and better than LeBron at his peak. With modern training and medicine he should have been good for another 10 years. Rodman is a moeran.

All of that is fair and I agree. You can have a great team and run into a bad matchup or get cold for a single game and you are out. Even if you get a one seed you shouldn’t be too disappointed if you don’t make the Final Four. So when I say we have a team that should make the Sweet Sixteen what I really mean is that we have a team that should be able to get a 4 seed. And I don’t think that is blind homerism given that we are ranked anywhere from #9 to #23 in all of the polls that I have seen and that doesn’t include our latest pickup.

I also think it is pretty pointless to look at what Texas has done in the last 15 years when considering this team. There has been a 180 degree change in how our teams are constructed. I may pull together a similar experience chart to the one I did above for some other UT teams. Historically we rely HEAVILY on freshmen. Last year was by far the most experienced team we have had and this one is similar. I think that lends a degree of predictability since we are dealing with adults. None of that means we are even guaranteed to make the tournament. I just like our odds given what I’m seeing at this point.

But aren’t you also mocking everyone for “blind homerism” for expecting a S16? (Despite the fact that some national publications have us as high as #9 without the latest commitment?) Everything doesn’t have to be so polar. It is possible to think there will be SOME learning curve for RT. We can all debate the degree. Some may want to give him most of the credit for last year. Others may want to give him less. It doesn’t mean the opposite side are idiots or homers or doom and gloomers. We are all just UT hoops fans wanting to talk about the sport we love.

Agree. This team is actually just about as old - and as a group has started almost as many games. The main difference is that we won't be starting a freshman this year. Our bench was considerably stronger last year though.

Again, that is just a gross over-exaggeration. The 2022-2023 team only returned about half of their minutes and points. They also started a true freshman and a sophomore transfer. As a reminder, the 2022 team lost: Andrew Jones - 88 starts at Texas, 2nd Team All Big 12 Courtney Ramey - 106 starts at Texas, 3rd Team All Big 12 Tre Mitchell - 17 starts at Texas (but quit on the team in February) Devin Askew - 15 mpg off the bench in conference Jase Febres - 14 mpg off the bench Jaylon Tyson - Quit mid-year I will agree that the team was exceptionally experienced, but MOST of their career minutes were played before they got to Texas. It did help a ton having Chris Beard, maybe the best coach in college basketball at building a culture and getting unfamiliar players to work together. He has done this over and over again. If he was still here, I would be viewing this team as a legit title contender.

I get that we won't know the chemistry till we see it on the floor. Last year we actually only returned 49% of the minutes and 52% of the scoring from 2021. We had lost full-time starters Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramey. Tre Mitchell, Devin Askew and Jase Febres had also all started games. Sir'Jabari Rice and Tyrese Hunter had barely arrived on campus at this point and Dylan Disu hadn't started a single game for Texas and was still recovering from injury. This year we return 43% of the minutes (not a ton less than last year)... but only 36% of the scoring. Just like last year we are returning three starters and breaking in a couple of new, but experienced guards. So I guess subtracting a couple of in-season wins is reasonable, but I wouldn't go beyond that. As txhorns mentions, EVERYONE is going to have a lot of turnover. KU is also only returning 39% of their scoring and they may be the #1 team in the country. As far as coaching goes, I agree it is a downgrade losing Chris Beard from the off-season. We retained almost all of the staff though, so there is good continuity. I personally think Frank Haith is a SLIGHT upgrade over Donewald, but others may disagree. I also think Cory Schlesinger is a SLIGHT upgrade over John Reilly, but both are great. Losing Beard does hurt though. I would say that is good for a couple of losses as well. I think "on paper" the team is a little better, and the pieces seem to fit better. But with the above intangibles there is more risk. So for me personally, I will call it a wash. I would be pretty disappointed if we don't make the 2nd weekend with this group.

On the 3-point shooting front, we should be pretty solid and marginally better than last year. Abmas is a legit great shooter and is already #16 on the all-time NCAA 3-pointers made list and was #5 in the country last year. Weaver is also a threat from deep and shot over 40% as a freshman (albeit on limited volume). Tyrese Hunter improved from 27% as a freshman to 34% last year (and from 67% to 80% from the line). I would hope he could get up to 36%+ this year. Cunningham has averaged 43% from deep over the last two seasons. Our bigs haven't really shot the 3 in recent years, but Disu has potential. He shot 37% from 3 at Vanderbilt on almost four 3s per game. In conference last year he averaged 40% from 3, but on pretty low volume. Shedrick is an 80% FT shooter, so I think he also has potential. I don't expect much from Dillon Mitchell from deep, but then we got almost nothing from Allen last year so that isn't a big change. Departing: Carr: 2.2/5.9 36.8% Rice: 1.7 / 4.5 37.1% Morris: 0.8 / 2.3 33.3% Allen: 0.1 / 0.6 15.0% (non factor) Bishop: 0.0 / 0.3 0.0% (non factor) Arriving: Abmas: 3.6 / 9.2 39.4% (last 3 years) Weaver: 1.0 / 2.6 40.2% Johnson: 20-30% in high school. Not really his game. Onyema: 0.1 / 0.4 20.0% (non factor) Shedrick: 0.0 / 0.2 20.0% non factor

As far as size goes, we give up a LITTLE size on the perimeter, but our wings and post players are a good bit bigger. Departing: Carr: 6-2, 195 Rice: 6-4, 180 Morris: 6-3, 190 Allen: 6-6, 198 Bishop: 6-7, 220 Arriving: Abmas: 6-1, 165 Weaver: 6-3, 164 Johnson: 6-6, 192 Onyema: 6-8, 215 Shedrick: 6-11, 216 Bishop was probably our biggest, most physical defender last year and was undersized at 6-7. Onyma is marginally bigger than Bishop, and Shedrick is in a whole different class. Chris Johnson also gives us a big combo guard who can make up for some of the size we are giving up with Abmas.

Awesome news. I think that rounds out our roster. Regarding this team, I think the ceiling is higher than S16. I would say S16 is more like my minimum expectation. Granted, every year is different so it depends a lot on the overall strength of the competition and how the chemistry develops. I have posted this before, but now that our team is completely filled out we have a good picture of what our team will be. Keep in mind that this was an E8 team that was a few calls away from the Final Four in our own backyard. I think it is fair to say last year's ceiling was National Title because we were definitely in the mix. Hunter ('24) vs. Hunter (’23) – Moderate upgrade. Hunter will be a year older and was also injured a good bit of last year. Aẞmas (’24) vs. Carr (’23) – Even (at worst). Carr is a better defender. Aẞmas better, more efficient scorer (and NCAA All-Region). Mitchell ('24) vs. Mitchell (’23) – Moderate upgrade. I look for him to make a decent leap this year. Disu (’24) vs. Disu (’23) – Slight upgrade. Disu was playing like a 1st team All-American. I think we get a whole year of that guy and he gets more minutes Shedrick (’24) vs. Allen ('23) - Slight downgrade. Shedrick gives us interior defense, but Allen was a swiss army knife. Shedrick is a better shooter though. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bench – Rice (’23) vs. Weaver (’24) – Big downgrade. Rice was a proven former conference PoY. Weaver looks to be good though. Bench – Cunningham (’24) vs. Cunningham ('23) - Slight upgrade. Another year of experience and Cunningham should be little better. Bench - Johnson ('24) vs. Morris ('23) - Even. Morris didn't do a whole lot. I don't expect a ton from Johnson this year either. Bench – Bishop (’23) vs. Onyema (’24) – Moderate downgrade. Bishop was big in moments. I expect his minutes will be picked up elsewhere. Bench – Anamekwe (’24) vs. Anamekwe ('23) – Moderate upgrade. Likely won't be a big impact though. To sum it up: Guards - Advantage 2023, mainly due to Rice. This may be offset by Hunter's improvement and Aẞmas superior shooting. Both will get a ton of minutes. Forwards - Advantage 2024. Mitchell, Disu and Cunningham should all be better. I don't think losing Allen will hurt much honestly. Center - Advantage 2024. Shedrick should be better than anything we had last year. And Disu will also get extended small-ball Center run. FT Shooting - Slight advantage 2024. Aẞmas will be our closer and is one of the best in the country (a lot better FT shooter than Carr and also better than Rice). Hunter will improve. Weaver is already better from the line than Allen. Shedrick is a better FT shooter than any big we had on the roster last year. This should be a team strength. Defense - Even. Aẞmas won't be as good as Carr, but Shedrick will help a ton on the interior. Mitchell should be improved. Overall I would say we are even at worst given the individual pieces. How they fit together will determine whether this is a Final Four or a 1st Weekend team. I'm betting closer to the former than the later. Honestly this looks like a top-10 team to me.

I honestly don’t know much about Holland. In terms of single year impact, do you think he would be better than Dillon Mitchell with another year of experience? I think I would rather have Mitchell just based on the rarity of having a truly impactful college freshman. Admittedly, I have a big bias for older players.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Carr will end up being a star in the NBA. I just don’t see a huge difference between him and someone like Devonte Graham. I’m curious to see how he does in summer league. I wonder if Durant has played with him some before through the UT connection and might possibly be an advocate.

Carr measured right at 6’1 in socks but with a nearly 6’7 wingspan. That gives him similar measurable to guys like Patrick Beverly, Collin Sexton, Mike Conley, Cam Payne, Chris Paul, Jaylen Brunson, Seth Curry and Darius Garland. His size isn’t really a problem IMO. The issue is that he isn’t really that explosive. And he isn’t elite at either shooting or distributing. He is pretty good at a lot of things though - and showed the potential to be a really good defender. And at 24, he is NBA ready. Phoenix needs point guard depth NOW. I give him over a 50/50 shot. He couldn’t have landed in a better spot.

great spots for both of those dudes Carr has a real shot to make the team and get some minutes. Phoenix is super weak at PG and they have no money to sign anyone.

Thinking a little more about Phoenix next year. Found a new part of Basketball Reference that shows the percent of time a player has played at various positions. Over the last 4 years: Devon Booker - 2% PG, 81% SG, 17% SF Bradley Beal - 8% PG, 79% SG, 13% SF Kevin Durant - 9% SF, 73% PF, 18% C (Side note: LOL at Seattle playing him 94% at SG. WTF) I'm guessing that they will start Cameron Payne at PG and then have Booker and Beal play interchangeable wings. They are really thin at point guard though. Maybe they will have either Beal or Booker run point for stretches?

Last year: Marcus Smart - 11.5 points on 0.511 eFG% and 0.746 FT%, 2.3 TOV, 12.1 PER, 0.092 WS/48, 0.5 VORP - Not on All-Defense team Derrick White - 12.4 points on 0.560 eFG%, 0.875 FT%, 1.2 TOV, 15.4 PER, 0.154 WS/48, 2.6 VORP - 2nd Team All-Defense And this year in the playoffs: Marcus Smart - 14.9 points on 0.552 eFG% and 0.800 FT%, 2.3 TOV, 15.4 PER, 0.112 WS/48, 0.5 VORP Derrick White - 13.4 points on 0.641 eFG%, 0.912 FT%, 0.9 TOV, 16.2 PER, 0.151 WS/48, 0.8 VORP Derrick White is better in just about every category. He is a much more efficient player - and getting rid of Smart will force Tatum and Brown to stop up and lead the team. I wish I had Smart's stats in the last 10 minutes of a game. He invariably tries to take over and he isn't that guy.

Scoot Henderson was the youngest player in G-League history at 17 yrs old. He has improved steadily and will be much more NBA ready than Jaden Ivey despite being two years younger. 17 yrs old: 14.3 PTS, 4.8 TRB, 4.2 AST, 1.7 STL (21 games) 18 yrs old: 17.6 PTS, 5.1 TRB, 6.6 AST, 1.3 STL (25 games)

I'm betting Derrick White will be the starting point guard and they roll with something like: PG - Derrick White SG - Jaylen Brown SF - Jayson Tatum PF - Grant Williams C - Kristaps Porzingis Then they can further reduce Al Horford's minutes given that he is going to be 37 this year.

Porzingis played more games than Smart last year. Over the last 4 years, Smart is only averaging ~5 games per year more than Porzingis. Not a lot.

Brogdon is going to turn 31 next year. I wouldn't be counting on him for the long-term Boston plan. Last year he averaged 15, 4 and 4 with decent efficiency, but it is only a matter of time before he starts slipping. Porzingis can get buckets. He averaged 23, 8 and 3 last year. The Celtics will be able to use him to fill scoring droughts much more than Brogdon. Plus he is just entering his Prime and flirting with being in the 50/40/90 club. This is a great trade for the Celtics.

Who says no?