HookEm

Granted, the extra Covid year will work its way out of the system after this year, so maybe the transfers won't be as big of an advantage a couple of years from now.

Here are the top-10 transfer portal recruits for 2022... It gets a little harder to go back and find previous years - and there isn't a consensus so I had to average a few sites. 2022 – 14.3 PTS, 4.9 TRB, 2.7 AST – 1.3 NCAA Win Ave, One Final Four + 2 Elite Eight Kendrick Davis – Memphis – 21.9 PTS, 3.7 TRB, 5.4 AST – NCAA Round 1 Nijel Pack – Miami – 13.6 PTS, 2.7 TRB, 2.3 AST – Final Four Tyrese Hunter – Texas – 10.3 PTS, 3.0 TRB, 2.5 AST – Elite Eight Brandon Murray – Georgetown – 13.7 PTS, 3.9 TRB, 3.2 AST – NCAA Round 1 Kevin McCullar – Kansas – 10.7 PTS, 7.0 TRB, 2.4 AST – NCAA Round 2 Terrence Shannon – Illinois – 17.2 PTS, 4.6 TRB, 2.8 AST – NCAA Round 1 Baylor Sheierman – Creighton – 12.8 PTS, 8.3 TRB, 3.3 AST – Elite Eight Isiaih Mosley – Missouri – 9.6 PTS, 2.0 TRB, 2.5 AST – NCAA Round 2 Johni Broome – Auburn – 14.2 PTS, 8.4 TRB, 1.3 AST – NCAA Round 2 Emoni Bates - Eastern Michigan – 19.2 PTS, 5.8 TRB, 1.4 AST – Missed Tourney As a group they are better in just about every way than the top-10 high-school recruits. If you extend it out to the top-25 transfers, it shows how deep the pool is. You add in a National Champion + another Final Four + 2 more Elite Eights. And as a group, they averaged 11.6 PTS, 5.5 TRB, 1.8 AST, 3.1 WS

I don't view it as binary at all. The whole thing is an optimization exercise. We have a fixed number of roster spots, fixed number of minutes to allocate, fixed amount of NIL resources, etc. I am only saying where I would focus my resources. Also, I think this is a case where recency bias is way more appropriate than a long-term perspective. The game has changed. Five years ago players had to sit out a year if they wanted to transfer. Five years ago we didn't have NIL. In the old environment it made more sense to go after high-level one and dones. Now, the smart teams will adjust. I think this is why Kentucky is struggling. They haven't adjusted to the new landscape.

If I have time, I will do the same exercise for the top-10 transfer portal players for the same years.

My issue isn't that I don't like the one-and-dones. It is fun to have NBA-level talent on a team and then to follow them in the NBA. I just don't think they generally promote winning basketball in March. And they represent lost opportunity to go get top-level transfers because they demand minutes, NIL $$$ and special attention that could be spent on more mature players. As I said previously, our team would have been better last year with all of Dillon Mitchell's minutes being given to Brock Cunningham, and he isn't even a great player. If you take the top-10 players for each of the last 3 years (using RSCI), you have 30 players. Here are some tournament stats for them: 2 Final Fours (Paulo Banchero and Jalen Sugs) 2 Elite Eights (Evan Mobley and Dillon Mitchell) 11 zero or one win NCAA Tourneys 6 Missed NCAA Tourneys Average Season: 11.5 PTS, 5.1 TRB, 2.2 AST Here are those players: 2022 - 10.1 PTS, 4.4 TRB, 1.7 AST, 45.4 FG%, 34.1 3P%, 72.3 FT%, 2.3 WS, 1.4 NCAA Win Ave, Zero Final Fours Dariq Whitehead – Duke – 8.8 PTS, 2.4 TRB, 1.3 AST – 1 NCAA Win Dereck Lively – Duke – 4.7 PTS, 4.7 TRB, 1.0 AST – 1 NCAA Win Nick Smith – Arkansas – 9.9 PTS, 1.4 TRB, 1.4 AST (36.5 FG%) – 2 NCAA Wins Kyle Filipowski – Duke – 15.1 PTS, 9.2 TRB, 1.3 AST – 1 NCAA Win Dillon Mitchell – Texas – 5.4 PTS, 4.5 TRB, 0.5 AST – 3 NCAA Wins, Elite 8 Kel’el Ware – Oregon – 6.7 PTS, 4.0 TRB, 0.6 AST – Missed NCAA Tourney Keyonte George – Baylor – 16.6 PTS, 4.5 TRB, 3.0 AST (38.9 FG%) – 1 NCAA Win Carson Wallace – Kentucky – 11.8 PTS, 3.7 TRB, 4.1 AST – 1 NCAA Win Jarace Walker – Houston – 11.3 PTS, 6.4 TRB, 1.8 AST – 2 NCAA Wins Amari Bailey – UCLA – 10.3 PTS, 3.4 TRB, 2.1 AST – 2 NCAA Wins 2021 – 11.8 PTS, 5.6 TRB, 2.4 AST, 46.5 FG%, 35.8 3P%, 72.7 FT%, 3.6 WS, 1.2 NCAA Win Ave, One Final Four Chet Holmgren – Gonzaga - 14.1 PTS, 9.9 TRB, 1.9 AST – 2 NCAA Wins Jaden Hardy - none Paulo Banchero – Duke - 17.2 PTS, 7.8 TRB, 3.2 AST – 4 NCAA Wins, Final Four Jabari Smith – Auburn - 16.9 PTS, 7.4 TRB, 2.0 AST – 1 NCAA Win Patrick Baldwin – Milwaukee - 12.1 PTS, 5.8 TRB, 1.5 AST – Missed NCAA Tourney Kennedy Chandler – Tennessee - 13.9 PTS, 3.2 TRB, 4.7 AST – 1 NCAA Wins Caleb Houstan – Michigan - 10.1 PTS, 4.0 REB, 1.4 AST – 2 NCAA Wins Peyton Watson – UCLA - 3.3 PTS, 2.9 TRB, 0.8 AST – 2 NCAA Wins JD Davison – Alabama - 8.5 PTS, 4.8 TRB, 4.3 AST – 0 NCAA Wins Jendall Brown – Baylor - 9.7 PTS, 4.9 TRB, 1.9 AST – 1 NCAA Win 2020 – 13.0 PTS, 5.2 TRB, 2.5 AST, 45.5 FG%, 32.7 3P%, 74.5 FT%, 2.5 WS, 1.1 NCAA Win Ave, One Final Four Cade Cunningham – OSU – 20.1 PTS, 6.2 TRB, 3.5 AST – 1 NCAA Win Jalen Green - none Evan Mobley – USC – 16.4 PTS, 8.7 TRB, 2.4 AST – 3 NCAA Wins, Elite 8 Brandon Boston – Kentucky - 11.5 PTS, 4.5 TRB, 1.6 AST – Missed NCAA Tourney Scottie Barnes – FSU - 10.3 PTS, 4.0 TRB, 4.1 AST – 2 NCAA Wins Ziaire Williams – Stanford - 10.7 PTS, 4.6 TRB, 2.2 AST – Missed NCAA Tourney Jalen Suggs – Gonzaga - 14.4 PTS, 5.3 TRB, 4.5 AST – 5 NCAA Wins, NCAA Title Game Greg Brown – Texas - 9.3 PTS, 6.2 TRB, 0.4 AST – 0 NCAA Wins Terrence Clarke – Kentucky - 9.6 PTS, 2.6 TRB, 2.0 AST – Missed NCAA Tourney Josh Christopher – ASU - 14.3 PTS, 4.7 TRB, 1.4 AST – Missed NCAA Tourney

Go ahead and post your list of high impact freshman in March in recent years then.

Way more often than not, these prima donna top-10 recruits are more trouble than they are worth during their one year rental. And if anyone disagrees, go ahead and a bunch of top-10 freshman who have made an impact in March in the last 5 years. And then I will list you 3X as many who didn't do anything.

I still don't understand why we would let him out of his NLI. Seems like a bad precedent. Hey, come sign here! But... by all means, keep entertaining offers from everyone else!

The problem with one and dones is that they think they are better than they are and demand playing time, while still doing stupid freshman stuff on the court. Give me guys in the 50-100 range that want to be here and want to stay here. Half the team should be these guys, so maybe take 2 per year. The other half should be portal guys with 1-2 years of eligibility left. Again, losing Holland sucks and I didn’t want to lose him. No revisionist history here. BUT… losing him and picking up a solid Junior or senior transfer will likely result in a better team next year. Even the UTEP big might be a better fit for this team. Give me 25+ minutes of Cunningham at the 3 all day every day.

Derka, you obviously feel like we are in a downward fall. I’m curious who you think is on the team when the dust settles 2 months from now. Throw out a projection.

I believe so. My guess is we will add Weaver in the coming days. If I had to bet my life on it, I would say Tyrese Hunter will be back. I would say Dillon Mitchell is 50/50. Maybe higher now that Ron Holland is gone. The story isn't written on this offseason by a LONG shot. There will still be new players to hit the portal we haven't even heard about yet. We now have starter minutes to offer at SG / SF and can go big game hunting in the portal in a way we couldn't 24 hours ago. My theme all along has simply been to be patient. Dividing the fanbase up into sunshine pumpers and haters is a beating. It is possible to be disappointed while also cautiously hopeful at the same time. Portal losses and decommits happen. I'm waaaay more interested in how we respond. I will join all of you at the city gate with pitchfork in hand if we field a shitty team come November.

Updated: Returning players: Brock Cunningham, Alex Anamekwe, Dylan Disu (Apr 23) Incoming Transfers: Kaden Shedrick (Apr 23), Max Abmas (Apr 28) Incoming freshmen: None Potential commits: Chendall Weaver (G, UTA), Tyrin Lawrence (G, Vanderbilt), Ze'Rik Onyema (F, UTEP) Outgoing Transfers: Arterio Morris, Rowan Brumbaugh NBA Early Entries: *Dillon Mitchell (potential top-25 pick), *Tyrese Hunter (probably back) Decommits: Ron Holland (#5 National), AJ Johnson (#20 National)

Aligned

I worded that badly. What I meant is that if Mitchell comes back it is going to be a battle between the two of them to see who starts. If we started Mitchell last year as a freshman, it is going to be very hard for Holland to unseat him as a freshman. Maybe he will, but then Mitchell is going to be pissed that he came back just to have a lesser role than last year. Either way, if both Mitchell and Holland end up on campus, they will each eat into the other one's minutes and touches.

If I could only pick one (and in reality, that is probably all we have starters minutes for) from Tyrin Lawrence, Dillon Mitchell and Ron Holland, I take Lawrence. And he is still on the table. All of them are actually.

If Dillon Mitchell comes back, he isn't a sure lock to start at Texas. And even if he was, his minutes would be trimmed significantly.

It sucks to lose Holland, but in this day and age it is a VERY rare freshman wing that is better than what you can get from the top end of the portal. For our particular team next year, I would rather have Tyrin Lawrence out of Virginia (who has 2 years left) than Ron Holland, who is almost guaranteed to be a one-and-done. A 3-guard lineup of Hunter, Abmas and Lawrence with Weaver off the bench is the type of team that can win a title. If Holland comes here you HAVE to start him. Just like we had to start Mitchell last year even though we were a better team when we went small with Rice. You may all disagree, but I would actually rather give minutes at the 3 to Brock Cunningham. He was a vastly better on-court player than Dillon Mitchell last year... and he will be a better player than Ron Holland this year, despite the fact that Mitchell and Holland may both turn into decent NBA players some day. Now if Dillon Mitchell returns to Texas with another year of seasoning, he could be very impactful. I'm going to reserve any fretting about this loss until I see how we fill the open spot that it leaves. We need GUARDS and this opens up a lot of playing time to get one.

Weaver would be a great get. There is no guarantee Hunter returns. We need some quality guards - and he is another efficient one averaging >40% from 3. Plus at 6'3 he gives us a little more size - and he seems to be a good rebounder. Hopefully we are on the phone with Tyrin Lawrence as well. I doubt he would come off the bench, but he would be an A+ backup plan if Tyrese Hunter bolts.

As you know there are a lot of recruiting sites and they have different opinions. I'm don't think many expect Shedrick to be a star, but he is a fantastic add to start at center alongside Disu (or Holland / Mitchell / Cunningham if we go small). Here are the rankings from some of the other sites: 247 - #14 overall, #4 Center USAToday - #20 overall On3 - #40 overall, #7 Center Fansided - #41 overall Tarheel Times- #7 overall (based mainly on adjusted efficiency) Rivals - #48 overall, #7 Center

When Chris Beard got here, if we had the the chance to bring in either Bob Donewald or Frank Haith, I'm curious what the consensus opinion would have been. I personally would go with Haith, but both are great options. The last team that Donewald has stayed with for more than 3 years is.... <checks notes> ??? <double checks notes> Turns out he has never stayed with a team for more than 3 years in his 28 year career and has 18 stops.

Updated: Returning players: Brock Cunningham, Alex Anamekwe, Dylan Disu (Apr 23) Incoming Transfers: Kaden Shedrick (Apr 23), Max Abmas (Apr 28) Incoming freshmen: Ron Holland (#5 National) Potential commits: Chendall Weaver (G, UTA), Tyrin Lawrence (G, Vanderbilt), Ze'Rik Onyema (F, UTEP) Outgoing Transfers: Arterio Morris, Rowan Brumbaugh NBA Early Entries: *Dillon Mitchell (potential top-25 pick), *Tyrese Hunter (probably back) Decommits: AJ Johnson (#20 National)

Max Abmas is a better scorer than anyone we had on the roster last year. You have to go back a ways to find any guards at UT who score as well as he does AND as efficiently as he does. Abrams (funny the spelling is so close) is about as close as we have, but he wasn't nearly as versatile of a player. And yes, I realize that he was doing this in the Summit League. But he also did in in the NCAA Tourney. And he was doing it with very little help, so the other defense could completely key on him. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he averages ~20 points and also gets close to 6 assists per game next year. Best UT guard scoring seasons: Max Abmas ('21) - 24.5 PTS, 3.8 AST, 3.4 TRB, 42.1 3P%, 63.1 TS% - NCAA All-Region Team (Oral Roberts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Marcus Carr ('21) - 19.4 PTS, 4.9 AST, 4.0 TRB, 37.1 3P%, 51.7 TS% - Big 10 3rd Team (Wisconsin) Tyrese Hunter ('22) - 11.0 PTS, 4.9 AST, 3.5 TRB, 27.4 3P%, 47.5 TS% - Big 12 RoY (Iowa State) Sir'Jabari Rice ('23) - 13.0 PTS, 2.0 AST, 3.5 TRB, 37.1 3P%, 61.0 TS% - Big 12 6MoY (Texas) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Matt Coleman ('21) - 13.2 PTS, 4.0 AST, 3.5 TRB, 37.7 3P%, 60.2 TS% - Big 12 3rd Team Isaiah Taylor ('16) - 15.0 PTS, 5.0 AST, 2.8 TRB, 31.1 3P%, 52.5 TS% - Big 12 1st Team Myck Kabongo ('13) - 14.6 PTS, 5.5 AST, 5.0 TRB, 29.6 3P%, 54.9 TS% J'Covan Brown ('12) - 20.1 PTS, 3.8 AST, 3.4 TRB, 36.9 3P%, 55.0 TS% - Big 12 1st Team AJ Abrams ('09) - 16.6 PTS, 1.3 AST, 2.2 TRB, 39.6 3P%, 55.7 TS% - Big 12 2nd Team DJ Augustin ('08) - 19.2 PTS, 5.8 AST, 2.9 TRB, 38.1 3P%, 55.7 TS% - 1st Team All-American

This is a pretty uninformed take. What kind of NIL deal do you think he would get here?

A lot of us were saying to be patient. The portal is dynamic and players get added continually. And that patience has been rewarded. No need to bicker. Let’s enjoy the fact that we have all the big pieces now. Everything else is just finding the right complementary pieces.

This thread is dead. How bout some good news up in here.