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Recruiting - 2020
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Everything posted by HookEm
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Here is an update on our returning experience. This is now the 2nd most experienced team we have ever had in terms of average age, experience and games played. It really helps shore up our bench depth.
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Agree 100%. The key will be whether he accepts that role. If so, that could be a very good add. Honestly though, I don't see the need to add anyone else. Every minute this guy gets will be time that Hunter or Abmas likely spends on the bench. I want those guys getting 32+ mpg. And I want Brock getting 20+ mpg. And I want Johnson and Weaver getting plenty of minutes so that they can take over next year.
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Best of luck to him in the one year that he will stay there.
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San Antonio should sign him.
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Will be interesting to see if Weaver can shoot 40% from 3 in the Big 12.
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I pray that one day we all might experience love like the love Derka has for RT.
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You could argue that Apple was a shitty company in 1994. Then it wasn’t. What RT was 3 years ago is irrelevant. He is our coach now. The decision has been made. And his tenure will be 100% determined by what he has done since Dec 12 last year. Can we not use this thread to talk about THIS year? I’ve made a bunch of posts with detailed analysis of the team that get no discussion. Instead we keep revisiting the decision to hire RT. Holy fuck it is tiresome.
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FTR - I’m also not crazy about the Nick Matson hire. But I thought the Frank Haith and new S&C coaching hires were fantastic. It is possible to criticize one move while liking another. Every time you don’t like something, it is just provoking argument to say hyperbolic shit like RT is the worst coach in the conference. And then move the goalpost by listing coaches that aren’t even in the Big 12 anymore. Cmon this board should be better than that.
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Beard - disgraced Huggins - disgraced Adams - disgraced I would take RT over all of them and so would the UT administration. Boynton has made one tourney in 6 years and is overrated AF. Otzeberger has also never really done anything beyond one Sweet 16. His record at UNLV was worse than Terry at UTEP.
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It still was an incredibly impressive coaching achievement IMO. You seem to disagree and completely discount it. I and many others don’t.
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What a weird rant. Serious question Derka… do you honestly think that all 13 other Big 12 coaches would have taken Texas to a 3 seed and made the Elite 8 last year if they had taken over for the disgraced Chris Beard in the middle of the season? I mean you would have to if you think he is the worst coach in the whole league.
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Hot take, but at this point I would MUCH rather have 23 yr old Tyler Herro for 4 years / $120M than 33 yr old Damian Lillard for 2 years / $93M. If I was Portland, I would insist on something like Tyler Herro + Nikola Jovic + 2 first rounders for Dame. And if I was Miami, I would probably make that trade. Dame gives them a real shot at a title for a couple of years.
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It is crazy to me that any Longhorn fan old enough to post on this board would have any doubt about whether Frank Haith is a home run hire as an assistant coach.
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Good question. All of the stats are pretty related. Teams with more experience also returned more counting stats as you would expect. I think career minutes is probably the best predictor. Admittedly though, in the early 2000s we mainly recruited super talented one and two year players and had pretty good success. But they were loaded with NBA talent... and high level NBA talent at that... and we also usually had a core group of experienced players to complement them. Here are the seasons ranked by returning minutes. Almost all of the top returning minutes teams did well, even if they didn't all have tourney success. The ones that didn't, like 2015, got Rick Barnes fired. 2016 and 2021 were both very experienced teams that should have been much better. As you go down the list, you see teams like 2017 and 2013 that were inexperienced and missed the tournament altogether. And 2012 and 2018 that never cracked the top-25. Bringing it back to 2024, we return the 3rd most minutes of any team since 2003. As such, I think a top 2-3 seed is within reach.
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I got bored yesterday and decided to look at the experience we had returning for every Texas team in the last 20 years. Note that for this analysis, transfers with experience count the same as players who have played together... so it isn't perfect. Regardless, it really shows how much our strategy has changed with NIL, transfer portal and COVID extra years. This year we have a top-3 team in terms of career experience, minutes, points and starts. The starters are particularly experienced. 2012-2018 had some really inexperienced teams. And guess what, we sucked ass for that stretch. Also, check out Durant's year (2007). Yikes! Average experience for the WHOLE team was 0.4 years.
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I personally think Tyler Herro is a better player than Reaves. He was one of the best (maybe the actual best) in crunch time this year. In the 4th quarter he averaged 5.8 ppg and over 43% from 3 while shooting 100% from the FT line. He is also a year younger than Reaves. Herro is also a much better athlete. Early in his career he had a 35" vertical and it is allegedly now closer to 40". Austin Reaves measured at 25". That sucks.
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FWIW, here are our seeds over the last 20 years. 2023 - 2 2022 - 6 2021 - 3 2020 - Covid. Likely 7-10 2019 - Nope 2018 - 10 2017 - Nope 2016 - 6 2015 - 11 2014 - 7 2013 - Nope 2012 - 11 2011 - 4 2010 - 8 2009 - 7 2008 - 2 2007 - 4 2006 - 2 2005 - 8 2004 - 3 2003 - 1 Man, what a crappy run we had from 2012-2020. Thanks a lot Shaka. Who knows if we will get back to where we were from 2000-2011. We always recruited well, but the highly recruited players were fools gold. I think NIL and the transfer portal will help us a lot. Now we can still go get the most coveted players, but they aren't development projects. They are full-grown men with skillz. They are proven commodities and all-conference type players.
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Here are the odds of advancing to various rounds based on seeding. To "expect" a Sweet 16, you really need to be a 1 or 2 seed. As a 4 seed you have less than a coin flip chance of making it. So if someone hears me say that I expect to make the Sweet 16, it could easily be interpreted that as I expect us to be a 1 or 2 seed. I agree that would be a pretty sunshine pumping take for this particular group. So... from here out I think I will talk about expectations in terms of either seeding or ranking. To expect a Final Four, you need a team that is more dominant than we have ever had at Texas. But I think it is reasonable to expect that Texas will get a 4 seed or better in most years given our resources.
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Bird would be absolutely insane in today’s NBA. I can’t even imagine how many 3s he would be hitting. He was also a great rebounder and passer - and a near psychopath as a competitor. I still think at his peak he was a top 3-4 player in NBA history and better than LeBron at his peak. With modern training and medicine he should have been good for another 10 years. Rodman is a moeran.
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All of that is fair and I agree. You can have a great team and run into a bad matchup or get cold for a single game and you are out. Even if you get a one seed you shouldn’t be too disappointed if you don’t make the Final Four. So when I say we have a team that should make the Sweet Sixteen what I really mean is that we have a team that should be able to get a 4 seed. And I don’t think that is blind homerism given that we are ranked anywhere from #9 to #23 in all of the polls that I have seen and that doesn’t include our latest pickup.
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I also think it is pretty pointless to look at what Texas has done in the last 15 years when considering this team. There has been a 180 degree change in how our teams are constructed. I may pull together a similar experience chart to the one I did above for some other UT teams. Historically we rely HEAVILY on freshmen. Last year was by far the most experienced team we have had and this one is similar. I think that lends a degree of predictability since we are dealing with adults. None of that means we are even guaranteed to make the tournament. I just like our odds given what I’m seeing at this point.
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But aren’t you also mocking everyone for “blind homerism” for expecting a S16? (Despite the fact that some national publications have us as high as #9 without the latest commitment?) Everything doesn’t have to be so polar. It is possible to think there will be SOME learning curve for RT. We can all debate the degree. Some may want to give him most of the credit for last year. Others may want to give him less. It doesn’t mean the opposite side are idiots or homers or doom and gloomers. We are all just UT hoops fans wanting to talk about the sport we love.
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Agree. This team is actually just about as old - and as a group has started almost as many games. The main difference is that we won't be starting a freshman this year. Our bench was considerably stronger last year though.
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Again, that is just a gross over-exaggeration. The 2022-2023 team only returned about half of their minutes and points. They also started a true freshman and a sophomore transfer. As a reminder, the 2022 team lost: Andrew Jones - 88 starts at Texas, 2nd Team All Big 12 Courtney Ramey - 106 starts at Texas, 3rd Team All Big 12 Tre Mitchell - 17 starts at Texas (but quit on the team in February) Devin Askew - 15 mpg off the bench in conference Jase Febres - 14 mpg off the bench Jaylon Tyson - Quit mid-year I will agree that the team was exceptionally experienced, but MOST of their career minutes were played before they got to Texas. It did help a ton having Chris Beard, maybe the best coach in college basketball at building a culture and getting unfamiliar players to work together. He has done this over and over again. If he was still here, I would be viewing this team as a legit title contender.
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I get that we won't know the chemistry till we see it on the floor. Last year we actually only returned 49% of the minutes and 52% of the scoring from 2021. We had lost full-time starters Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramey. Tre Mitchell, Devin Askew and Jase Febres had also all started games. Sir'Jabari Rice and Tyrese Hunter had barely arrived on campus at this point and Dylan Disu hadn't started a single game for Texas and was still recovering from injury. This year we return 43% of the minutes (not a ton less than last year)... but only 36% of the scoring. Just like last year we are returning three starters and breaking in a couple of new, but experienced guards. So I guess subtracting a couple of in-season wins is reasonable, but I wouldn't go beyond that. As txhorns mentions, EVERYONE is going to have a lot of turnover. KU is also only returning 39% of their scoring and they may be the #1 team in the country. As far as coaching goes, I agree it is a downgrade losing Chris Beard from the off-season. We retained almost all of the staff though, so there is good continuity. I personally think Frank Haith is a SLIGHT upgrade over Donewald, but others may disagree. I also think Cory Schlesinger is a SLIGHT upgrade over John Reilly, but both are great. Losing Beard does hurt though. I would say that is good for a couple of losses as well. I think "on paper" the team is a little better, and the pieces seem to fit better. But with the above intangibles there is more risk. So for me personally, I will call it a wash. I would be pretty disappointed if we don't make the 2nd weekend with this group.
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