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HookEm

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Everything posted by HookEm

  1. This is a much better roster than last year. But a worse product on the court. We definitely have the pieces to be good, but you can so clearly see how poorly they are coached. This should be a lock down defensive team.
  2. I guess I’ll take the win. But that was frustrating as hell.
  3. Oh look another dumb AF play
  4. Tre made that one but man it was a hard shot.
  5. Oh look another dumb AF play
  6. The team defense is just terrible. And then we take stupid shots. We have no idea how to close out an opponent. Remember under Beard when we would be up by 10 and it was basically game over. That was fun.
  7. As soft as Shedrick is, he plays even dumber.
  8. Also worth noting that Dillon Mitchel is averaging 26.5% from the line. Holy fook. Hunter's efficiency is also coming back down to earth.
  9. Amazing to me that anyone would react "F you" to this post. Tells me that you, like Beard, are also probably a scumbag. Anyone who thinks that the night of his arrest was the first and only dust up that Beard has had with a female is a moron. I guess you think he was just unlucky. His reaction after the fact, with zero contrition, shows that he doesn't have the self awareness needed to coach somewhere like UT. This is not a man of high character. Period. The fact that he left UNLV 19 days into his tenure, just days after signing a 5 year contract, should have been a clue. I can't recall another time when a coach has done that. Any current UT supporters of Beard come across as desperate and pathetic. We can do better.
  10. Updated season probability distribution:
  11. Out of all the coaches we could hire, bitch ass Beard is just about at the bottom of my list.
  12. Remind me what the story is with Jay Wright. I wouldn't just assume we have no shot there. It is possible that he needed a break and wanted to give Kyle Neptune a shot at a big role. He is "only" 63, which may seem old until you consider: Mark Few is 62 Bill Self is 62 Bruce Pearl is 64 Kelvin Sampson is 69 Tom Izzo is 69 Rick Barnes is 70 Roy Williams retired at 71 Mike Krzyzewski retired at 73 Hell, 63 seems to be right in the sweet spot these days. He might get 8-10 years. Another name that nobody talks about is Tony Bennett. Is it possible that he just needed a change of scenery like Rick Barnes? In the six years from 2014-2019, Virginia won a title, made an Elite 8 and another Sweet 16, going 178-36 in a tough ACC. Their average KenPom ranking was 4.8 which had to be one of the top 2-3 programs over that time. He is only 55. Maybe after a year or two out of the sport he will be ready to get back at it. He also claimed to resign due to the "current state of the sport", but maybe he would have a fresh perspective somewhere like Texas with a bigger checkbook. Also perhaps NIL will stabilize a little by the time we move on from Rodney.
  13. I'm assuming you know how a probability distribution works. If not, here is a simple example.... Say you are playing 10 games and have a 40% chance to win each one. Well, the odds are you aren't going to lose every game, despite being an underdog in each of them. The win distribution looks something like this:
  14. Updated conference probabilities based on KenPom individual game odds:
  15. Who are the top coaches in the 45-55 year old range? Here are some candidates: Dan Hurley, UConn (52) - 2 Title Scott Drew, Baylor (54) - 1 Title, 2 EE, 2 S16 Chris Beard, Ole Miss (51) - 1 FF, 1 EE - Kill me Nate Oats, Alabama (50) - 1 FF, 2 S16 Matt Painter, Purdue (54) - 1 FF, 1 EE, 5 S16 Tommy Lloyd, Arizona (50) - 2 S16 TJ Otzelberger, ISU (47) - 2 S16 Dusty May, Michigan (48) - 1 FF Shaka Smart, Marquette (47) - 1 FF, 2 S16 - Kill me Buzz Williams, Aggy (52) - 1 EE, 3 S16 - Meh Notable under 40: Jon Scheyer, Duke (37) - 1 E8 Jake Diebler, Ohio St (38) Todd Golden, Florida (39)
  16. Barnes peak still isn't good enough given our resources. Here are the best KenPom 5-yr and 10-yr stretches for some schools with great coaches and arguably lesser resources than we have today: Ohio St: 7.2 (2010-2014), 13.7 (2006-2015) Baylor: 8.0 (2020-2024), 16.0 (2015-2024) Mich. St 8.4 (2012-2016), 14.3 (2011-2020) Arizona 9.8 (1997-2001), 13.4 (1997-2006) Florida: 9.8 (2003-2007), 13.1 (1999-2008) Texas: 15.6 (05-09), 16.2 (01-10) That isn't even including teams like Kansas, UNC and Kentucky who we really should be competing with. I think the thing that will ultimately doom RT is that the Moody Center is dead. We have a brand new arena, one of the best in the entire sport, and it is just dead. We can't have that.
  17. Kent is a solid role players and Larry is fine as your 8th or 9th best player. The roster is actually really well constructed IMO. If Chris Beard had this team, I have zero doubt they would be ranked in the top-10. He would be running a positionless switch everything defense that would be a nightmare with our forwards. Shedrick would be getting 10 minutes per game, not starting.
  18. Drake has lost their last two games. I'm kind of holding out hope that it is Royal Ivey. He did an amazing job with South Sudan. I just don't think our opening will align with him being viewed as qualified. And there is a decent chance that he gets an NBA job and never makes his way to the college ranks.
  19. I see this season as a win/win no matter what happens. If we win, awesome. I will always be excited to watch UT hoops make it to the big dance. If we lose, it could help usher in a new staff who will probably (but not certainly) be better. The aggy game was pretty much a perfect storm worst case opponent for us. They are #1 in the country in offensive rebounding and we are a bad rebounding team. They were getting 2nd chance garbage points all night long. They are also very good defensively, both on the perimeter and down low. I don't think we are as bad as we looked in that game. I liked that we saw some lineups with Pope/Larry + Johnson + Mark + Kent + Kaluma. We need that more going forward.
  20. Hot take, but I think we play better team basketball when Tre isn’t on the floor.
  21. Given the strength of the conference, I think the seeding would work out as follows (with the percentages being the odds of that seed or better): 7-11 - 10 seed, 50/50 make the tourney (78% chance) 8-10 - 8-9 seed, 90% make the tourney (61% chance) 9-9 - 6-7 seed (42% chance) 10-8 - 5-6 seed (24% chance) 11-7 - 5 seed (11% chance) 12-6 - 4 seed (4% chance) 13-5 - 3 seed (1.3% chance) 14-4 - 2 seed (1 in 300+) 15-3 - 1 seed (1 in 2,000+) 16-2 or better - #1 overall seed - (1 in 13,000+)
  22. Just for fun, I simulated 10M seasons using the KenPom game odds. Here are the results:
  23. The SEC is crazy good this year. Going 0.500 in conference probably earns us a 6 seed.
  24. Texas Tech is an interesting one to watch. They have a very passionate billionaire former player in Cody Campbell who is starting to throw real money around. They currently have the #2 class in the transfer portal. There is also a power vacuum in the Big 12 that they could step into if they buy their way into it.
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