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Blotto

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Blotto

  1. Yeah, timing on entry points surely affects the comparative returns on MSTY vs MSTR, but my suspicion is that on average MSTR performs better than MSTY over most time frames. If however I choose the 2024 high for MSTR (11/20/24) as the start date of a comparison through today, than the MSTY edges out the return of MSTR. And if you look at the worst performing period of MSTR (11/20/24-04/08/25), MSTY also performs better So small sample size, but it appears that when the underlying is moving bigly, and IV spikes, the options selling ETF performs better than the underlying. In periods of normal low volatility, the underlying will probably always performs better. Which makes sense because the options premiums the ETFs can capture are lower. Ive been trying to mess around with ChatGPT more to automate shit, so I spent a bit of time this afternoon building a model that allows me to dump price data, dividend data, volatility etc... and have it compare returns assuming dividend reinvestment. Now I can dump in data from a lot more of the options selling ETFs to see what shakes out. Is there an IV sweet spot for the underlying that starts to throw the advantage towards the options selling ETFs? Its really more just an exercise to practice using AI and I'm not expecting to learn much more than higher IV = better performance on the ETFs.
  2. Stupid question time on the concept of these option income ETFs. While I'm nominally familiar with MSTY, I haven't really done a deep dive but what am I missing? It appears to me that you would be better off just investing in MSTR, or at least that has been the case since the inception of MSTY... While the chart above doesn't specifically indicate whether it is showing MSTY dividend reinvestment, I believe it does as I found a separate charting tool that specifically claims to factor in dividend reinvestment, and it provides very similar returns for $10K invested starting 2/22/24. I understand that one major difference between the two investments is the monthly income generation that MSTY provides and MSTR does not (assuming you dont take profits by selling some). But it seems a strategy of holding MSTR and selling after a year would provide far better returns, especially when you consider that you will be paying tax on your MSTY dividend payouts according to your tax rate, rather than lower long-term capital gains rate on MSTR if you hold a year. I spot checked a couple of other ETFs (TSLY/TSLA, NVDY/NVDA) and in both cases the underlying outperformed the ETF fairly significantly. Is the theory that these option income ETFs will out perform the underlying stock in periods of down years? Here's the sites I used to generate the returns https://portfolioslab.com/tools/stock-comparison/MSTY/MSTR https://totalrealreturns.com/s/MSTY,MSTR
  3. Merck's Keytruda is the world's top selling pharmaceutical with sales of $30B/yr (up 20% in 2024 alone). The patent protection on that drug expires in 2028, so Merck will be looking for ways to soften the financial impact. If Anktiva were found to be effective in a wide range of cancer treatments, my guess is there would be no shortage of suitors to buy IBRX or possibly partner to scale up the commercialization efforts. There is too much money to made in cancer treatments to allow IBRX to wither on the vine for years if (a big IF) Anktiva is found to dramatically improve cancer treatments across multiple indications.
  4. I presume that their torrenting/seeding efforts extended far beyond porn and included movies, TV shoes, music videos, etc... If thats the case, we can be sure Meta will be held accountable, correct? Or maybe the government will do mark a solid, and just ask nicely that they stop doing illegal shit.
  5. yeah I just saw this article on ESPN....check out the video and that track they are racing on. its like the Serbian equivalent of small town texas dirt track racing. Dude cracks me up. Lebron level talent with none of the obnoxious ego. https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/45839089/nikola-jokic-celebrates-horse-winning-race-serbia-denver-nuggets
  6. What in the wide wide world of sports is a goin on here. I hired you people to try and get a little track laid..... Also looks like jerruh paid ole charles haley to fellate him in public. I'm a bit surprised Charles didnt whip out lil Chuckie for Charlotte like he used to for the team.
  7. Laughable to assume this is the end of it. Some politician will say the wrong thing about Trump or some country will enact a policy he doesn't like, and he will slap a new tariff on him. I'm still trying to figure why increasing our costs by 15% is a win for America, but the markets seem to shrug it off.
  8. fixed for accuracy https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5701165/2024/08/19/2024-heisman-trophy-odds-dillon-gabriel-carson-beck/
  9. I'm with derka. We schedule non-conference like absolute pussies and its bullshit. I don't give a fuck how our current approach "games" the system. I'd rather play a respectable slate of games then worry about a one or two seed diff in the tournament. And if a couple of more early losses means we miss out on the tourney, the team probably ain't worth a shit anyway.
  10. MarkWayne is the perfect embodiment of the state of Oklahoma. Galactically stupid with a worldview that can only be honed in the throws of passion while fucking your homeroom, homeschool teacher.
  11. Longer balls, longer days = optimal ball sunning conditions. I dont see what the problem is.
  12. I like how rogan admits he's a fucking pussy and didnt push back at all on Patel when Patel lied to his face. "I'll just let the internet take care of it", lulz.
  13. Oof... you don't see this too often with outfielders. And Judge is one of the very few yankees over the years I couldn't immediately bring myself to dislike. Hope he sticks around in the HR race with Raleigh and Ohtani.
  14. To be fair, he was facing a triple dog dare....the coup de grace of all dares.
  15. Beware of all of the f'n delicious vittles available at the casa de Shank....those lbs will sneak up ya.
  16. After 8+ years of this shit, it amazes me people think Trump cant do whatever he wants with respect to MAGtards. Certainly the 478th time will be different.
  17. I won't pretend to know if Trump or any others are guilty of anything when it comes to Epstein. I certainly have my suspicions & biases, but I haven't seen evidence. What I can be certain of is that Maxwell will fully exonerate Trump and throw some GQP political enemies under the bus. Whatever "files" are released are guaranteed to be selected/manipulated to validate whatever story they concoct and will fall far short of a complete dump of the investigation. This will be a nothing burger as it relates to Trump when its all said and done, because he calls the shots now. The man is a pathological liar, and everyone in his orbit has learned to just go with it and use his complete contempt for the truth to further their own goals. Its laughable to expect full disclosure of information from a guy that fucking lied about keeping classified information at Mar-a-lago. This entire circus is political theatre that got out of hand, but there is zero chance that any information sullying Trumps sterling reputation will be released. And America will ultimately just accept it as another of the hundreds of looney-tunes episodes that define Trump's presidencies, shrug their shoulders, and move on. And once Maxwell is pardoned for doing her part, the rubes will all celebrate the occasion.
  18. That's actually a negative IMO, but without it the company would have been toast a long time ago.
  19. he's a strange dude
  20. right, but as far as I know diamonds of a certain size and quality will have an expected value. Caitlin signing a picture of herself that someone grabbed from a magazine will have a fraction of the value of Caitlin signing a picture that a company tells you is worth something. And she probably signs hundreds of things a week.
  21. Nailed it. I'm gonna laugh when his autonomous robotaxis still have safety monitors riding around in them months from now. Such a technological triumph.
  22. For the life of me, I'll never understand the market/craze behind trading cards. That goes for men or women. Don't get me wrong, I realize that people place large arbitrary values on these things, I just don't get why. It's a random image of a person with an autograph, but why does that autograph carry any more value than any of the other hundreds that she likely gives every week. It's such a strange phenomenon to me. But I never got the whole NFT thing either.
  23. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/24/astronomer-hr-chief-kristin-cabot-resigns-after-coldplay-kiss-cam.html Looks like all that's left now in this fairytale romance are their respective appearances on the media circuit in a few months attempting to cast blame on others for their unfair treatment. Maybe some gofundme campaigns for that run of Coldplay shows coming up at Wembley Stadium in the fall.
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