Everything posted by sheeeit
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Voter Suppression
According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, every single one of these 53,000 pending registration people can vote on election day with a valid photo ID. A photo ID has been required to vote in Georgia for a while now and would have been required regardless of the voter registration issue. Why exactly are you guys using this as an example of republicans ending the world? You guys truly are nuts.
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Elizabeth Warren 2020
I dont know how much this will matter in the long run. Probably not much. But she clearly did this now to try and get out in front of it and make it go away. I think that backfired for her. It doesn't really matter if everyone now claims it played no role in her hiring/advancement whatever. Rightly or wrongly, the vast majority of people associate checking a box as trying to get an advantage. The fact that Harvard then used the info to tout her as a woman of color and sent her hire to the govt for diversity numbers only makes the matter worse for Warren politically. It doesn't matter, politically, if she even knew about it at the time. She can not and has not denied she checked the box. Most people will look at that as a lie to get ahead. As to her claims, folks kind of forget why she is in this situation. Here is one of her quotes on the subject: This seems like a massive stretch and I do not believe her. The amount of potential indian blood in her mom (especially in light of Elizabeth's own recent test) would have to be almost imperceptible and I can not see how anyone would even notice. She obviously does not have any physical attributes that would indicate native american heritage. The story is that his parents did not want them to marry because she was part indian, but they wed and lived in the same city with his parents for years. And how would they even know? Elizabeth states often that her mom never talked about it to anyone. Being part indian in those days was not positive. I just do not believe the whole story. But the poiltical reality is that based on this specious dna test (everyone just ignores that the test did not actually prove anything- the tester said that "the results strongly support the existence of...." and virtually every person born in ok could make this claim), trump and the rest of them are going to keep bringing it up. They are going to say she tried to prove it but could not. Unfortunately for Warren, it is just a bad political look for her. And you guys claiming that calling her pocohantas is racist just need to stop. If a 98% blood native american checked a box claiming he was white and someone called him Opie Taylor would it be racist? Racist to whom? The Indian? White Americans? Opie? Barney?
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Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread
RC?
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2018 - Elections and Trends
Lulz. I had never even seen a generic ballot poll before this week. I googled the term to try to find out how much of a thing they are and the Rasmussen poll popped up. For what it is worth, I think that the dams will take back the house but not the Senate.
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2018 - Elections and Trends
Shit. Your faith did not last 3 weeks. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_oct10
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The Angry Mob!
No doubt. Now that this is over and no one was seriously hurt, I find it pretty funny when presented with the whole story. I think the new definition should be do not hit women unless they are dressed to conceal they are a woman, swinging a bottle at your buddies head and then, after being punched once, they get up and come back at you in the middle of a riot. The odds of these circumstances happening again seem slim so maybe we can go back to just do not hit women. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWMYmZMiQLk Funny all around in hindsight. Forgot to add her post before the event that she was coming to get 100 scalps. Yes I get the movie reference. Its just too funny. Watching fights on TV and imagining how it is going to be is different from real life.
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Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread
I am done with this. Did you even read the articles? Carrier is hiring. They cant get quality employees to fill the demand. How the fuck is that an indictment on the economy or on US manufacturing? Ford is in the middle of restructuring that was announced years ago. Just stop.
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Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread
Facts don't matter. Dear Leader out front shoulda toldja. JFC you guys are a beating. Fondren posts that the rust belt has not had any economic growth and, as a result, the dems can easily get their support if they just show up there to campaign. I post long time economic forecasting services that show that 4 of the 5 rust belt states have consumer confidence and business economic optimism at all time highs. Not simply the big cities. The entire states. The unemployment numbers for these states are at 40 year lows. Wage growth in these states has been higher than anytime in the last 20 years. https://www.eauclairechamber.org/eau-claire-chamber-blog/regional-employer-survey-shows-local-wage-growth-accelerating Those are for Indiana (Fondren) and Wisconsin. Anyone can look this stuff up. Read the actual data. In these states around 50% of the job growth and wage growth are in manufacturing of durable goods. The exact types of jobs that dems told them were never coming back. They are coming back. Jimmy keeps posting stuff about Carrier and I have no idea why. Carriers plant in Indianapolis that made all the headlines is openly hiring. They cant find enough people to keep up with demand. Their biggest issue right now is keeping the line open to reach their quotas. Starting pay over $18/hour and up to $20 within 6 months plus as much OT as they want. For the country, durable manufacturing jobs actually decreased from jan '15 to jan '17 by 47,000 jobs. And most of the losses were in 2016. Since jan '17 to jul '18 (6 full months less time) there have been 311,000 durable goods manufacturing jobs created with the bulk coming in 2018. By any measure, this is fantastic for the country. It is just so typical for this place and the usual suspects that someone could post something so stupid- that dems could easily get back the rust belt states because they have not had any economic gains and are "eating shit" when the reports from those states have economic confidence at all time highs- and not only do people not criticize the post they seem to be trying to defend it.
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Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread
Gee lets call someone slugger to try and trivialize them so people wont realize how dumb of a post I made. People can judge for themselves I suppose. We have Fondren's word based on........versus the actual data from the agencies that have been tracking economic optimism for the state for decades under both parties. It is ok to admit you made a mistake.
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Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread
I wont reply again because it just isnt worth it but this latest post is perfect for you. I make a post that includes a point that republicans were stalling Obama candidates. You make a reply to tell me that the mean republicans obstruct nominees more than the dems. I reply that that may very well be true but it was not anything at all that I was arguing in my post and that it is irrelevant to the points I was making. You reply "look into the numbers you fucking imbecile". That is fantastic.
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Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread
You get dumber every day. In a post where I point out how republicans specifically stalled Obama candidates you ask me about repubs stalling candidates. The point, you dolt, is that there are lots and lots of posts on this thread about how the dems did not obstruct Gorsuch. They fully intended to and said as much publicly. I have no problem with them using the rules in the senate as they exist. But they were going to filibuster Gorsuch and the repubs used the same tactic that Reid used to get around the filibuster rule. My post made zero points about which party obstructs the other more often or more forcefully. You just can not help yourself.
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Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread
This just is not true on any level. The economic optimism in the rust belt states is overwhelmingly high. https://www.moodyonthemarket.com/pnc-economic-outlook-pushes-michigan-business-optimism-to-record-high-levels/ https://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2018/06/27/optimism-among-wmc-membership-remains-high-amid.html https://columbusregion.com/news-events/ohio-economic-outlook-optimism-time-high-pnc-employer-survey-columbus-business-first/ http://www.insideindianabusiness.com/story/37989005/report-ranks-indiana-high-for-economic-outlook That is every state in the "rust" belt except for Illinois and all of them have consumer confidence/business confidence or whatever you want to call it at all time highs. There biggest issue is a labor shortage which is the biggest driver for increased wages. But the exact type of jobs, manufacturing primarily, that these states were told were never coming back are, in fact, coming back. The blue collar worker in the rust belt is having a better time today than any in the last 20 years. It is also telling that Illinois is the only rust belt state that is still in uncertain mode.
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Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread
The "Biden" rule was not actually a rule or any piece of legislation. It was just his thoughts on the subject. However, it was the Dems under Harry Reid in 2013 that changed the rules of the senate that have us where we are now. Republicans, at the time, warned that the shoe would be on the other foot at some point and Reid, to his credit, admitted that the Republicans would and should be able to do the same thing if and when they came to a majority. The change was basically an end to the filibuster rule where 41 dissenting votes could tie up nominations indefinitely. There is no question the repubs were using the rule to slow down Obama nominations in 2013 but the dems, via Reid, had the majority and voted for the change to the rule. I actually think it is a good change. People keep forgetting about Gorsuch (side note: it is amazing how people can not even remember things from a year ago) and what the dems were doing. Everyone keeps saying that the dems did not try and sink Gorsuch which is patently false. The dems got 41 senators to oppose the nomination which set up a filibuster opportunity. They told McConnel they were going to filibuster. As a result, McConnel did the exact same as Reid in 2013 and changed Senate rules to avoid a filibuster. The shoe was on the other foot a lot sooner than Reid hoped. As for Garland, we can debate whether he should have been up for a vote or not forever and not agree. But, what is not debatable is that the repubs used the actual rules of the senate to their advantage. What they did was not new either and it had been done before. IMO, the dems and Obama should have formally nominated him and forced the repubs to a vote. They could have used that politically. They did not do it because they assumed Hillary would win. But the repubs used the laws as written to their advantage just like every party does when in the majority.
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Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread
https://www.dailysignal.com/2017/01/11/how-many-americans-paid-the-obamacare-tax-penalty-in-2016/ Solid effort. $3,000,000,000 in 2016 in penalties. But you were close.
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Will Ferrell + John C. Reilly = Holmes and Watson (Dec, 2018)
lol good point. i suppose subtle is a poor word choice but the scenes from say talledega when they are praying are 100x more funny to me than when he is running around the track thinking he is on fire.
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Will Ferrell + John C. Reilly = Holmes and Watson (Dec, 2018)
Shit. I was all in and laughed at the pics in the first post. Trailer was exactly what I did not want. Those guys are genius when subtle but terrible with slap stick. Actually all slap stick is pretty terrible.
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Amazon setting the bar: $15 min hourly wage
"Some" were. Bullshit. Any city/state that realistically thinks they have a chance to get the facilities will not even consider the scenario you described. It is completely nonsensical. Think about what you are saying. The only possible way that cities would worry about this is if they have 100% employment now and no workers in any industry that pay less than Amazon. No cities have that. As to the announcement, I think it is great for Amazon and their employees and a win for the economy. It is not a coincidence that you did not see this during periods of tepid gdp growth.
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Trumps USMCA
This is not so hard to understand. Currently there are little or no US based auto parts manufacturers and auto manufacturers that pay less than $16/hr for line workers. This will have little to no effect on wages in the US. However, there are many US based auto parts manufacturers and auto manufacturers that have, since NAFTA, made significant investment in plants in Mexico, especially glass components. Low wages in Mexico is certainly a factor in these US based companies moving operations to Mexico coupled with an extremely difficult ability for Mexican employees to collectively bargain. So when these US based businesses open their next plants, they will have a much higher incentive to keep them in the US. The wage differential will be closing, Mexican workers can now collectively bargain, the corporate tax rate in the US is now lower than Mexico, and the threshold for tariffs on the % of parts made in the US was increased. Further, and this is a biggie, the US now has the ability to investigate conditions in Mexico independent of Mexico- they do not get to police their own and, of course, they get to do the same to the US. Since NAFTA there has been in excess of $200B in infrastructure investment in Mexico from US auto related companies. Now no one thinks those current plants are going to be closed anytime soon because the costs are sunk but when it comes time for new investment or upgrades to existing facilities, the strong incentive will be for the US companies to do it within the US. This deal evens the playing field tremendously. The property taxes and jobs created from these investments will be massive over time. And everyone keeps ignoring the new regulations regarding intellectual property rights. This is a very big win for the film and music industry. Especially since, as mentioned earlier, the US can go after Mexican and Canadian firms or people accused of violating the agreements. This sets a precedent for new regulations relating to IP around the globe. It will be much harder for asian countries to say the regulations the US wants to impose are not fair when our 2 closets trading partners already agreed to them. There are also new regulations related to the pharm industry. The deal provides extra years in protection from copying US developed drugs in Canada and Mexico and actually lowers it in the US. This is a win for US pharma companies as well as US consumers as the generics can get into the US 2 years sooner now. Again, it levels the playing field and the US wins in all cases. I am not suggesting at all that this is some fantastical new deal that is a panacea for the US (I am quite certain that trump will say that) but it is undeniable that there are very real benefits in the billions of dollars to the US economy and Americans. That is good and it should be acknowledged.
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Trumps USMCA
I get what you are saying. You do not like the subsidies provided to dairy farmers. In some ways I completely agree, although it is a complex issue. Where you lose me is how this is a bad deal for Americans. I do not really care if Canadians get less expensive dairy due to increased competition. Bully for them. It affects the US consumer exactly zero. But the point you keep ignoring is that the current subsidies provided to dairy farmers does not go up a single dollar as a result of this deal. In fact, it will go down as a portion of the subsidies involved are for excess supply which will now be purchased by Canadians which means less subsidy dollars from the US. So, again, how is this deal bad for the US? It costs the US tax payer either zero or fewer dollars than they are currently paying in subsidies. It increase employment and profits to US dairy farmers which increases the tax base. If this deal somehow made existing subsidies go up then you would have a point but it does not. With the new deal, now is probably a great time to look at the current govt programs that dairy farmers take advantage of.
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Trumps USMCA
Not sure of your point. The new deal had absolutely no impact on the few current govt programs for the dairy industry. People routinely misunderstand subsidies, but this deal made no changes to any existing programs. But if US farmers can sell more product abroad, how is that, in any way, a downside to the US? In fact, a number of the "subsidies" you speak of have to do with over supply domestically. This will go down as more product is sold abroad. Also, I am sure you know that US dairy farmers do not get to set the price for milk in Canada. Why should I care what Canadians pay for milk as long as more revenue from Canadians flow to US businesses. We can debate the few govt programs available to dairy farmers and I would probably agree that they could be abused in some cases. However, this trade deal has no impact on them so using them as a criticism of the deal seems misplaced.
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Trumps USMCA
It is really difficult to determine how successful a deal like this is until years down the road. There are unintended consequences in any deal of this magnitude. There will be "experts" on both sides that will have very different interpretations of the fine points. People should take any comments from people not affiliated with the actual industries involved that are for or against the deal with a grain of salt. On the dairy, it is telling the American Dairy Assoc came out in strong support of the deal and the Canadian Dairy Assoc came out in strong opposition to the deal. The US got much better terms than those negotiated with Canada as part of the TPP. The American Auto Assoc came out strongly in favor of the deal. The newer more stringent IP regulations are an absolute win for the US and, likely more important, set a precedent for IP regulations with China and others. I fully expect the dems to downplay the deal and I fully expect Trump to grossly exaggerate the deal. But, imo, I think it is a much better deal for the US going forward but time will tell.
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Cruz vs Beto
I have zero problem with Soros doing whatever he wants with his money. I think it is silly to say he has less influence than the Kochs as he spends far more money on politics than they do, especially globally. But, again, nothing wrong with that. He plays by the rules of the game so he can do as he pleases. Soros really could be a topic of his own and is and will be a fascinating figure to study, especially his somewhat unique style of trading/betting. One of the most ironic aspects of Soros is that he is pretty universally loved/revered by democrats because he funds their interests lavishly, but the way he made the majority of his fortune represents just about everything most democrats say they despise. He did nothing illegal, that I know of, and I have always argued that morality/ethics is way down the list of things to be concerned about in finance, but Soros used his money and influence to take massive positions against foreign currencies that ultimately paid him and his investors billions but literally drove millions of ordinary people to financial ruin in those countries. Sorry to thread jack but Soros is a fascinating guy.
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Houston Prop B - firefighter pay
I am for these guys earning as much as they can. I think police deserve more as the jobs are different. Based on this site (no idea if accurate), base salary for fire fighters in Houston is essentially the same as Austin and Dallas. https://www1.salary.com/TX/Fire-Fighter-Salary.html Almost every firefighter I ever knew (almost all good guys/gals) had a second gig doing something mechanical related- sprinkler systems, light furniture manufacturing, yard work etc. Stuff that could be done in garages and similar and that there was not a deadline for getting something done. None of the cops I have known have second gigs as the schedule does not allow it. On average firefighters have 20 days off per month but technically work more hours than 8-5ers because the hours are in 24 hour blocks. On average, firefighters work 240 hours per month versus 184 for others. There is also an almost unlimited ability for OT. If they got promised a pension in exchange for salary and that changed then they deserve to have the difference made up. There are approximately 4000 firefighters in Houston with an average salary of about $46K. A 32% raise would cost the city about $56,000,000.
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The Robert Mueller Investigation
I love the rosenstein stuff. Anonymous sources claim rosenstein summoned to wh to be fired by trump! Predictable response here, like teen girls at a justin beiber concert. Speculation runs rampant. Oh wait, rosenstein was going to a regularly scheduled meeting and trump wasn't even in the WH. Why do you mopes keep falling for this stuff? Why do any of you believe any anonymous sourced story about trump? Can any of you at least admit, that in this particular case, every report based on anonymous sources was absolutely dead wrong. 99% of them are bogus. I do not even think the press is relying on sources they know are lying anymore. At this point I think they are just making them up.
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Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread
How? Feinstein sent the FBI a letter about an alleged sexual assault from 35 years ago and she REDACTED all of the names except for Kav and provided no specific date or location. As part of Kav's background check, virtually everyone he knows has already been questioned by the FBI. The vetting is intense and extremely comprehensive. Not one single person questioned by the FBI in their check even hinted at anything like what is being alleged. So what exactly did you want the FBI to do at that point?