How reliable are blockers when putting people on ranges in PLO?
5-handed limped pot yesterday, with a pretty passive, easy table. The flop was J diamonds, 8 hearts, 4 diamonds, and I have A-9 of diamonds, J of clubs, 7 of spades.
Check, check, I bet 50% of pot with my top top, nut flush draw, and backdoor straight draw, and the cutoff pots it. We're very deep.
I didn't know the player very well, but he seemed a bit splashy. What ranges would you put him on?
It folded to me and I called. The turn was 7 of hearts, I checked, he bet 60% of pot, and I called. He could have 9-T for a straight, a set, and maybe also a backdoor flush draw. But since I had a 9, I discounted him having 9-T.
River was J of spades, giving me the second nuts and blocker to the nuts. I checked, he bet 60% of the pot and instantly folded to a little more than a min check-raise, which surprised me.
I don't think he's snap-folding a full house there. He might've bet his straight for value with a plan to fold to any raise with the board pairing.
If I had 9-T in his shoes, I would have checked the river. Is that a bad play in the long term? The board was J-8-4-7-J rainbow.