-Jeff Lindner 8:00am
Red Flag Warning in effect for all of SE TX today for critical fire weather conditions.
Another day…another Red Flag Warning with weather conditions continuing dry with gusty winds and low humidity values. Overnight winds remained elevated in the 15-25mph range with a low level jet axis overhead…this axis is shifting eastward this morning, but winds will remain gusty through the day in the 15-25mph range. Current humidity values have recovered into the 35-45% range across the region, but with good mixing starting in the next few hours and dewpoints in the 20’s, humidity values will quickly fall below 25% by late morning and below 20% for this afternoon. Fire behavior yesterday afternoon on the Pauline Rd Fire has shown an escalation of the fuel landscape with short runs in pine canopy indicating larger fuels will burn in the current very dry air conditions. Fine fuels remain in poor condition and dry each afternoon with the gusty winds and low humidity values. Winds will weaken significant this evening but return to the south and increase into the 15-25mph range on Friday…while humidity values will also increase, the gusty winds on Friday will produce another day of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.
The increasing number of fires and uncontrollability has escalated the local fire threat in the last few days. There is an increasing potential for larger, hotter, and more resource intensive fires given the current fuel load and weather conditions.
Avoid any activities that could start a fire.
Pauline Rd Fire:
Fire is 2,000 acres and 10% contained this morning with fire activity minimal (this is usually the least active fire period on large fires). Ground crews overnight worked extensive structure protection efforts in both San Jacinto and Montgomery Counties and saved many structures. Evacuations remain in place for both portions of Montgomery and San Jacinto Counties with HWY 105 being used as the primary evacuation corridor along with firefighting resources. An estimated 900 structures are currently threatened by this fire. TFS dozer crews worked all night to build containment lines on the northern flank of the fire and will be working today for better perimeter protection and containment lines. Several aircraft are inbound this morning to work this fire including single engine air tankers and larger air tankers which will be supplying water drops and retardant to help ground crews with containment lines as well as cooling the overall fire scene. Fire behavior yesterday afternoon and evening was extreme with several pine canopy crown runs. This is the first time we have seen extensive movement of the fire out of the fine fuel loads (grasses) and into the tree canopy since this current fire threat has developed. As noted by the rapid spread of the fire in only a few hours yesterday, the continued degrading of the regional and state fire landscape will result in faster, hotter, and harder to control fires with potential for fires to move out of the rural areas into more urban interfaces.
Weather conditions will remain poor with increasing winds in the next few hours and falling humidity values. This will encourage fire growth toward the south along the head of the fire. Gusty northerly winds will remain in place through early evening followed by significant improvement by early evening.