oSuJeff97

100% this.

Not that I know of.

Pulling for my man Viktor Hovland this weekend.

Tried to add comments to my pics but edit window passed... The first is the view from the company chalet with #12 green on the left and #13 fairway on the right. The second is the view from the top of the hill at the #4 green with downtown Tulsa off in the distance.

Tulsa's an OSU town though, and we don't claim the rest of the state. Went out and caught practice rounds yesterday. It's the first time I've been on the grounds since the last big overhaul and damn the place looks absolutely immaculate. It was a little warm yesterday and should be for the rest of the week, but yeah a cold front is coming through Friday evening and it looks gorgeous for Saturday/Sunday... nothing at all like the blast furnace that was the last time the PGA Championship was here (2007) when it was 100+ every day of the event. I went out on Friday that year when it was 105 and it was goddamn miserable.

This. I actually really enjoy The Globe Sessions album. I think it’s actually her best work and much better as a total album vs. TNMC.

Super necro quote, but yes she’s great. I fucking laughed so hard at the scene when she was playing the Jurassic Park theme on the piano. It was one of those things that was just so absurd and specific I wonder if it came from real life. We haven’t started season 2 yet, but really looking forward to it.

Why the hell not? Will watch.

I get that. I just mean in terms of what outcome to expect, not like program status or something. Tech just fucking kicks our ass every time in baseball and I’m not going to ever expect anything different until I see evidence otherwise.

Yeah I had a bad feeling going into this series just based on the fact that Tech beats our fucking heads in every time. Tech baseball is to OSU baseball as OU football is to OSU football. I'm just going to assume we're going to lose every time and if we win it's just a pleasant surprise.

Yeah they haven't announced anything in Texas, Oklahoma or KC for this tour yet. I'm guessing they get added on eventually.

This. There is AMPLE material for them to make fun of, re: aging rock bands. My guess is this is going to be great.

Co-sign. He wasn't the problem. It was how the "character" was written.

Gotcha. I probably have it at the bottom of my list of Wilco albums. That’s not to say it’s “bad” to me or whatever… I just don’t vibe with most of the songs on that album for whatever reason. “Bull Back Nova” is great and amazing live, and I can appreciate the deliberate cheekiness of “Wilco (the song)” but most of the rest I find just ok.

Yeah it's pretty crazy. July 2022 was $7.47 on yesterday's forward curve. Calendar 2023 average was $5.25.

OK I've listened to WE several times now. I think it's pretty brilliant and I love it. It's not on the same level as everything leading up to and including The Suburbs (which I consider an absolute masterpiece), but it's more memorable than Everything Now for sure.... I need to give it more time/listens to see how it holds up. I do remember really liking Reflektor at first also but I haven't listened to it much over the years. But for now I'm really, really liking it.

I honestly don't know many Wilco fans who think that. That "honor" belongs almost unanimously to "Wilco (The Album)." Most fans I know really like A.M., while acknowledging that it's not in the same league as the creative peak of Being There/Summerteeth/YHF/AGIB. (But to be fair not much of anyone's output can match that four-album run).

Yeah I like them. Their price forecasts can get a little bullish sometimes, but I think their analysis is solid and I really like their lead N.A. nat gas guy (Eugene Kim).

The stuff I'm looking at are subscription-based that we use at my company... Wood Mackenzie, IHS, S&P Global, etc., so I can't really link them here unless you have a subscription. In their latest long-term forecasts, Wood Mackenzie has nat gas power demand falling from 28.7 Bcf/d in 2026 to 28.4 in 2031; S&P Global has it falling from 29.7 in 2026 to 23.1 in 2031. IHS has it peaking a few years later (2029) but falling after that. Of note, IHS's long-term forecast is the most stale (from February) and the other two both revised down 2026-35 power demand in the most recent updates so it will be interesting to see if IHS follows suit in their next update. And to be clear, I'm talking about L48 demand, not world demand. After working with this data for internal forecasts for the past few years, I just feel like there is a LOT of recency bias when prices make dramatic moves. Like in the summer of 2020 I remember getting into arguments about whether or not gas would ever get above $4 again because it was below $2 and there was nothing above $2.40 or so on the forward curve, even though forecasters kept talking about production was going to fall and prices would rise. Now I'm having the opposite argument where nobody can imagine it going below $5, lol.

Summerteeth was also the album that converted me from a casual Wilco fan into a Wilco superfan. I was aware of their more rootsy/alt-country stuff but wasn't super into it. I LOVED Summerteeth and then YHF but, like you, I got into the earlier stuff (including Uncle Tupelo) after the fact.

I agree that NE takeaway is a major issue, but there is room to grow production there through at least 2026-27, even if MVP doesn’t go; and either way total Appalachia has room to grow from ~32 Bcf/d to 36-37 Bcf/d by the late 2020s. That aside, the biggest supply growth will be coming from Permian and Haynesville anyway. And yeah takeaway *could* become an issue in Permian again like it was in 2019 but I just think that those expansions will be there eventually, unlike Appalachia; same deal for Haynesville. How do you see EV proliferation impacting demand? On the power side I assume? Most reports I see count this as a negligible impact on total power demand, especially with wind/solar making substantial inroads on the U.S. power stack by the end of the decade, mostly at the expense of coal and gas. Pretty much everyone has U.S. nat gas power demand peaking around 2025-26 or so before slowly eroding as renewable penetration accelerates. The problem with nat gas becoming global is we need to expand LNG export facilities SIGNIFICANTLY. It doesn’t matter if the demand is there if you can’t liquify the gas on our end, transport it and then receive it on the other end. Will we get there? Maybe I guess, but we’re talking hundreds of billions of investment dollars and several years to build the facilities.

So you think I'm off on supply or demand? (Or both?) We don't need to double production to get it back down to $3.50-$4.00. If supply growth can exceed demand growth by 0.5-1.0 Bcf/d we'll get there. Isn't takeaway mostly an Appalachia issue? If one assumes most of the supply growth is coming from Permian and Haynesville, those don't seem like areas where takeaway will be an issue. Kinder already has announced expansions to Permian Highway and GCX are coming on earlier than expected (4Q '23, IIRC) and another large pipe will likely come online 2025ish. There are also several projects in-process for Haynesville and it has two south-bound outlets for gas via Carthage and Perryville.

Well $5 would be "real relief" from $7-8 wouldn't it? And I'm not sure what you would consider a "long long time", but if L48 production gets close what most forecasters are expecting over the next two years, reaching 98-99 Bcf/d by 2024 we should see gas back down in the $3.50-$4.00 range by then. And that is with some pretty robust demand assumptions with LNG exports maxed and basically little to no elasticity in power demand.

Probably just pure ego. Unlike the way he is depicted in the show, the real Westhead likely had a big ego and wanted to implement his own stuff instead of just using McKinney's system. He couldn't completely change things in the middle of the season when he took over, so probably just thought he would make it *his* team in the following off-season, and winning the title probably gave that ego even more ammo.

Well George Lucas was pretty overtly political in Star Wars from the very beginning, from the Empire being pretty clear stand-ins for Nazis to the ground battle on Endor being a metaphor for Vietnam. The entire prequel trilogy was about how a democracy can be subverted to become an authoritarian regime. Say what you will about Lucas' ability to write realistic dialog, but the man always had big/interesting ideas. I still think the prequels were so very close to being amazing. If only he had taken his approach that he took on Empire/ROTJ and let someone else write the scripts and direct based on his ideas. This was what J.J. Abrams and crew missed about the sequel trilogy. It should have been the inverse of the prequels, in that it should have shown how a thriving democracy gets threatened by an external force (Separatists, First Order, whatever) but can fight back those forces and remain a thriving democracy with the right leadership (Leia, Luke).