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Everything posted by Thetexashammer
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Markets still falling like whoa
Thetexashammer replied to Llano Estacado's topic in Business and Markets
Dow 35K HERE WE COME!!!!!!! -
Italy is in fact massively understating deaths from Coronavirus. The real number is probably at least double. While the evidence is indirect, it's also overwhelming. It's also been reported than Italy wasn't counting deaths in nursing homes. Keep that in mind when the US numbers start to rise. https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-homes-insigh/uncounted-among-coronavirus-victims-deaths-sweep-through-italys-nursing-homes-idUSKBN2152V0 https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/borromea-residence-coronavirus-deaths-intl/index.html
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Those guys are a great follow. I've watched a ton of their videos. Laowai is the Chinese term for foreigner, by the way, I just learned that recently. Look at the titles of Serpentza's most recent videos, he's seriously going off on the government. He and Laowai are both married to native chinese women. They have discussed censorship issues often and I'm guessing will have to leave now because they will be targeted for what they're doing, if they haven't left already. Laowhy put up a fantastic video "Why I change my opinion on China". On the upside, views are up for them.
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Two videos from a couple of guys who have spent at least ten years in China. They both speak the language, have businesses, and married chinese women. This one is the best overall backgrounder on how China has changed. It's pretty sad and horrible.
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We sincerely appreciate your input and we want you to know that your opinions are highly valued. We will be considering your participation in our process and respecting your position as we progress through our decisions making. We thank you for taking your time to devote to this important issue, and for sharing your measured and erudite perspective.
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Markets still falling like whoa
Thetexashammer replied to Llano Estacado's topic in Business and Markets
Structurally, european countries are very constrained in their response to the virus in terms of their fiscal and monetary response. Italy, for example, cannot simply print money. The general feeling is that Italians don't work hard and have overspent, somewhat like people feel about the Greeks, who only obtained membership based upon lies enable by Goldman Sachs. So no one wants to help. http://blog.ilgiornale.it/bertirotti/2020/03/30/noi-leuropa-e-la-verita/ "They don't want to help us because our public debt, which continues to rise every second, has allowed us to live beyond our means. And we have accumulated too much of it. Therefore, the countries of northern Europe are obstructing, in this moment of pandemic, thinking of an after with the same categories as the first . And they do it believing that the economic need concerns only the Mediterranean countries. They seem convinced, with this reasoning, that we are the culprits of the pandemic situation." The big discussion now is about debt mutualization. What they were calling "Eurobonds", and what they're now calling "Coronabonds". And of course, Merkel and company are having none of it. The Germans can't stand the Italians, and I learned in Rome 30 years ago the Italians can't stand the Germans as well. So the Italians have been very constrained in their ability to spend money. They already had the highest interest rates and the worst debt/gdp of the major countries in europe. Was over 130% before the crisis. Now the economy will crash at least 25% and spending will increase significantly, if they can find the cash. So the deficit will blow out, probably >10% of GDP. Italian 10 year bonds are paying 1.5%, solely because of the implicit ECB backstop. Absent that, they're would be at Greece pre bailout levels, like 30-50%. The ECB has been used as a method to backdoor mutualization (buying bonds that will never be paid back) for both Greece and Italy. There has been discussion of the ECB writing off those debts. Which would cause a fucking riot in Germany. The ECB has recently pledged a quite modest $750 billion in open market purchases for the entire EU, not merely Italy. Remember, when Italy asked for help from the EU and other governments, only China responded. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-eu-abandoning-italy-china-aid/ Coronabonds were rejected at the last EU summit. If you've been to Italy, you've probably noticed there are a whole lot of EU flags hanging off buildings. I kind of understand the feeling, it's a kind of inferiority, a kind of hope you get from being part of something bigger. And then the frustration that comes when you see the failure of aforementioned gigantic, impersonal, and ultimately uncaring, unelected supranational government. Here's a story about Italians taking down their EU flags. Keep in mind, that's a europhile outlet printing that. Italian banks, not gonna do the detailed analysis, but a fair assessment of their value is zero, IMO. They've been extending and pretending since 2008. They'll mostly go bankrupt, and quickly. https://www.barrons.com/articles/italys-banks-will-struggle-under-the-coronavirus-outbreak-warns-fitch-51584112889 There is a good chance for a V-shaped recovery in the US. The US has workable leadership and a great starting point. That is not the case here, because Italy neither controls it's currency nor its central bank and has been shrinking its economy for 20 years. In October of 2019, unemployment was 9.7%. And the EU (mostly Frau Merkel) has basically said go fuck yourself. Italy has been in decline for twenty years. Debt to GDP is headed to >200% in the near term. Italians are a very frustrated and unhappy people. The obvious best response is leave the monetary union and inflate. My sense, however poorly I'm able to discern these things, is that their media is controlled by the europhiles and there isn't an organized "small government" movement. The Lega may benefit in the end, they are the anti-EU party. I honestly think Italy is much closer to the end of whatever the narrative is than anyone, at this point, realizes. They have a docile media and corrupt leadership all the way up to the EU, and there's a medical crisis ongoing, but you can only extend and pretend for so long. The internal divisions are ripping this place apart, even if the media doesn't present that narrative. It's gonna end badly here. I'd look for the Euro to fall a bit in the near term. -
Things seem to be going quite well for Joe Biden
Thetexashammer replied to Parliament's topic in Cloak Room
Think he has always suggested that Hildog (or someone not even running this go around) will come out of a "brokered" convention, but that is just to play up narrative about how fractured dems are. Your point is absolutely fair. It was a clickbait headline, so to speak. However, I do wonder, as most of us do, about the behind the scenes issues. He's being managed by people who know he's got a medical issue. What he's putting out is his "best stuff". And he's having trouble even pretending. I don't know what the reality is. But I frankly think he's done. Mentally, he's just not there. Doesn't mean I know shit about what the election result will be. Trump is toxic as fuck. But I mean damn, the dude's got dementia. You really want to run him as your presidential candidate? -
Magnificent example of how to enjoy the time off.
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Things seem to be going quite well for Joe Biden
Thetexashammer replied to Parliament's topic in Cloak Room
Tucker is insisting Biden won't even be the nominee. Which is interesting. -
Markets still falling like whoa
Thetexashammer replied to Llano Estacado's topic in Business and Markets
Excellent interview with Jim Grant. -
I am not joking when I say I want to get Corona. I'll be fine, and being "Recovered" is the golden passport to freedom. I may already have had it but who the hell knows. I would add that full lockdown is completely awkward. It's just socially very difficult to do. You can understand the logic of all this and there is still a kind of mental shock when you can't order Domino's. Obviously, many people are not exposing themselves to people who are at risk, so that further lengthens to chain of events between normal behavior and illness. And of course very few have seen anyone actually get ill, it's just all in the news. And most people are conditioned to ignore the constant shrieking and hysteria from our media. I don't dispute the need for isolation. In fact, obviously, if what you are saying is true, I would expect an Italy situation in a few weeks over there. If stores like Home Depot are open, you aren't on quarantine. So if true, conventional wisdom here predicts bad things to happen. Very bad things. We've had no restaurants, no bars, no going to work for more than two weeks, and numbers continue to rise. Supermarkets only. Even so, imagine that the solution ends up being that everyone has to wear a mask when they go out. Do you think that's awkward? I do. It's weird. But it may be necessary for six months or a year. During the first WWI Christmas, they had a truce. Soldiers from both sides crossed into No Man's Land and had dinner and drinks with each other and to exchange gifts. They literally had no idea what was about to happen. They couldn't conceive of it. They were not mentally prepared. There were no Aggies there. I don't object to the criticism at all, people are behaving stupidly, but I also think almost nobody is mentally prepared for this. Isolation is a huge stressor, as is losing your job, as is losing your entire routine, literally almost every resource that keeps you alive. It's a huge personal and psychological challenge even for those who were on this early, or who are financially secure, like many of us here. To dismiss people as just being "aggy" is kind of ridiculous.
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