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Thetexashammer

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Thetexashammer

  1. Teddy Roosevelt Captain was relieved of duty. I kind of think he was an idiot even if his bosses were morons. Stay at home extended in Italy to May 16. Six more weeks minimum. Gonna be massive, countrywide riots before that date.
  2. Killing myself with a kettlebell may have been the best thing I ever did. Literally every muscle hurts.
  3. A veritable Pantheon of lunacy........... I predicted we'll have a vaccine in the fall and there is no risk to college football and bad things will happen in Europe (over time) and I repeat them here. Everything's pretty normal by midsummer, except maybe we're all wearing masks and old people can't go out. The revolutions come later, but come they will. Europe will be devastated, US will recover, nipple rings for everyone.
  4. Inflation is inevitable. Like a pandemic, the only question is how best to prepare for it.
  5. 4 Million are partially or completely unemployed in France. That's equivalent to 20 million in the US, roughly. https://www.thelocal.fr/20200401/chomage-partiel-how-to-access-temporary-unemployment-in-france Spain unemployment was 14.2% in OCT 19. Only has 300k reporting unemployment, however, 800k "stopped paying into social security". Of course this is only the first wave of bad things to come. It's worth nothing the France GDP is 15% lower than 2008, and Spain GDP is 20% lower. European economies are fragile, slowly shrinking, highly regulated, and heavily indebted. Although to be fair, money just falls from helicopters these days. I mentioned in the market thread, it is important to realize that governments don't have the power to print money the way we do in the US. The discussion nowadays in the EU revolves around "Eurobonds", or the newly names "Coronabonds". Of course, the northern countries are refusing to subsidize the southern countries overspending. And borrowing is very limited for places like Italy, which already had debt to GDP over 140%, and will likely see closer to 200% after this. Il Giornale's headline currently states ""Now sell Italian securities.The attack order from Berlin." There are stories about city mayors and others who normally fly the EU flag (they're everywhere) taking them down after Italy asked for help from the EU and every single EU member refused. Italy's economy is down 20% from 2008 and unemployment was recently 9.7%. Limited reports of mafia activity and food riots down in Sicily, so, situation normal down there.
  6. Dow 35K HERE WE COME!!!!!!!
  7. Traditionally, you control looting by shooting the looters. I do expect wide social unrest to increase across the globe. Not everyone is mature as the average Surlistani.
  8. He pulled from a Google cache. So it should be accessible to anyone if Google doesn't shut it off. It's basically a confession that it came from the lab.
  9. Italy is in fact massively understating deaths from Coronavirus. The real number is probably at least double. While the evidence is indirect, it's also overwhelming. It's also been reported than Italy wasn't counting deaths in nursing homes. Keep that in mind when the US numbers start to rise. https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-homes-insigh/uncounted-among-coronavirus-victims-deaths-sweep-through-italys-nursing-homes-idUSKBN2152V0 https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/borromea-residence-coronavirus-deaths-intl/index.html
  10. Those guys are a great follow. I've watched a ton of their videos. Laowai is the Chinese term for foreigner, by the way, I just learned that recently. Look at the titles of Serpentza's most recent videos, he's seriously going off on the government. He and Laowai are both married to native chinese women. They have discussed censorship issues often and I'm guessing will have to leave now because they will be targeted for what they're doing, if they haven't left already. Laowhy put up a fantastic video "Why I change my opinion on China". On the upside, views are up for them.
  11. Two videos from a couple of guys who have spent at least ten years in China. They both speak the language, have businesses, and married chinese women. This one is the best overall backgrounder on how China has changed. It's pretty sad and horrible.
  12. Have Andrew Cuomo's nipple bars been discussed? I feel like they should be discussed.
  13. We sincerely appreciate your input and we want you to know that your opinions are highly valued. We will be considering your participation in our process and respecting your position as we progress through our decisions making. We thank you for taking your time to devote to this important issue, and for sharing your measured and erudite perspective.
  14. Structurally, european countries are very constrained in their response to the virus in terms of their fiscal and monetary response. Italy, for example, cannot simply print money. The general feeling is that Italians don't work hard and have overspent, somewhat like people feel about the Greeks, who only obtained membership based upon lies enable by Goldman Sachs. So no one wants to help. http://blog.ilgiornale.it/bertirotti/2020/03/30/noi-leuropa-e-la-verita/ "They don't want to help us because our public debt, which continues to rise every second, has allowed us to live beyond our means. And we have accumulated too much of it. Therefore, the countries of northern Europe are obstructing, in this moment of pandemic, thinking of an after with the same categories as the first . And they do it believing that the economic need concerns only the Mediterranean countries. They seem convinced, with this reasoning, that we are the culprits of the pandemic situation." The big discussion now is about debt mutualization. What they were calling "Eurobonds", and what they're now calling "Coronabonds". And of course, Merkel and company are having none of it. The Germans can't stand the Italians, and I learned in Rome 30 years ago the Italians can't stand the Germans as well. So the Italians have been very constrained in their ability to spend money. They already had the highest interest rates and the worst debt/gdp of the major countries in europe. Was over 130% before the crisis. Now the economy will crash at least 25% and spending will increase significantly, if they can find the cash. So the deficit will blow out, probably >10% of GDP. Italian 10 year bonds are paying 1.5%, solely because of the implicit ECB backstop. Absent that, they're would be at Greece pre bailout levels, like 30-50%. The ECB has been used as a method to backdoor mutualization (buying bonds that will never be paid back) for both Greece and Italy. There has been discussion of the ECB writing off those debts. Which would cause a fucking riot in Germany. The ECB has recently pledged a quite modest $750 billion in open market purchases for the entire EU, not merely Italy. Remember, when Italy asked for help from the EU and other governments, only China responded. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-eu-abandoning-italy-china-aid/ Coronabonds were rejected at the last EU summit. If you've been to Italy, you've probably noticed there are a whole lot of EU flags hanging off buildings. I kind of understand the feeling, it's a kind of inferiority, a kind of hope you get from being part of something bigger. And then the frustration that comes when you see the failure of aforementioned gigantic, impersonal, and ultimately uncaring, unelected supranational government. Here's a story about Italians taking down their EU flags. Keep in mind, that's a europhile outlet printing that. Italian banks, not gonna do the detailed analysis, but a fair assessment of their value is zero, IMO. They've been extending and pretending since 2008. They'll mostly go bankrupt, and quickly. https://www.barrons.com/articles/italys-banks-will-struggle-under-the-coronavirus-outbreak-warns-fitch-51584112889 There is a good chance for a V-shaped recovery in the US. The US has workable leadership and a great starting point. That is not the case here, because Italy neither controls it's currency nor its central bank and has been shrinking its economy for 20 years. In October of 2019, unemployment was 9.7%. And the EU (mostly Frau Merkel) has basically said go fuck yourself. Italy has been in decline for twenty years. Debt to GDP is headed to >200% in the near term. Italians are a very frustrated and unhappy people. The obvious best response is leave the monetary union and inflate. My sense, however poorly I'm able to discern these things, is that their media is controlled by the europhiles and there isn't an organized "small government" movement. The Lega may benefit in the end, they are the anti-EU party. I honestly think Italy is much closer to the end of whatever the narrative is than anyone, at this point, realizes. They have a docile media and corrupt leadership all the way up to the EU, and there's a medical crisis ongoing, but you can only extend and pretend for so long. The internal divisions are ripping this place apart, even if the media doesn't present that narrative. It's gonna end badly here. I'd look for the Euro to fall a bit in the near term.
  15. Look, domestic violence is bad. Evil. Reprehensible. Throw them in jail. There's no reason to hit a woman.
  16. Think he has always suggested that Hildog (or someone not even running this go around) will come out of a "brokered" convention, but that is just to play up narrative about how fractured dems are. Your point is absolutely fair. It was a clickbait headline, so to speak. However, I do wonder, as most of us do, about the behind the scenes issues. He's being managed by people who know he's got a medical issue. What he's putting out is his "best stuff". And he's having trouble even pretending. I don't know what the reality is. But I frankly think he's done. Mentally, he's just not there. Doesn't mean I know shit about what the election result will be. Trump is toxic as fuck. But I mean damn, the dude's got dementia. You really want to run him as your presidential candidate?
  17. Magnificent example of how to enjoy the time off.
  18. Tucker is insisting Biden won't even be the nominee. Which is interesting.
  19. Excellent interview with Jim Grant.
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