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Thetexashammer

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Thetexashammer

  1. It's almost like my permanently skeptical perspective of the media is even more useful during times like this. Seriously, it's like an in vino veritas thing. The stress placed upon our media is going to make their flaws even more obvious. Twittter will be even shittier. Even their most vigorous media defenders will have to notice how ridiculous they've become. Please note i didn't save "liberal media". They're all in the same Acela corridor, corporate bullshit, cultural bubble. Fox just has hotter women, excluding Katy Tur of course.
  2. It's worse than that. I can't look at the prices, but junk bonds were already in bubble territory. Corporates are likely just as inflated, including many that will simply not pay their principal back at all. When the recession finally hits, all hell is gonna break loose. I mean, at some point, the magic bubble blowing Fed machine just stops working, cash flows just dry up.
  3. All of Italy on lockdown now. Basically the entire country is restricted to "mission essential" travel now. Apparently the trains and airports are still open, FWIW, even in places like Milan. Exactly like we thought it would end up. Everybody gets to stay home for a month or two. I've spent weeks stuffed into in a cramped fucking hotel room before and it's no fucking good at all. Internet or no, I can't stay like that for long.
  4. If you find yourself alone, riding in the green fields with the sun on your face, do not be troubled. For you are in Elysium, and you're already dead! Also, no offense bro, but I'm in northern Italy. They're literlly putting boxes in every other chair to keep people 1 meter apart. I think I win this one.
  5. Literally, I would tell people "well there really isn't any of the apocalypse scenrios that could happen. I mean, except for that virus thing." It's like after 9/11 everybody said "who could possibly have seen this coming" and some guy who writes fiction pipes up and says "Yeah, well, I wrote this book over here about this exact scenario." It was totally predictable.
  6. Team #twominuteshate has a real desire to watch people suffer and die.
  7. You can't even confirm their actual population to the nearest 100 million. It's not a like a few funeral pyres are gonna move the needle for them. They're on a mission from God /bluesbrothers
  8. You can't even confirm their actual population to the nearest 100 million. It's not a like a few funeral pyres are gonna move the needle for them. They're on a mission from God /bluesbrothers
  9. It's a billion dollars. The ECB shits a solid billion before breakfast.
  10. Wall Street used to worship what we would call "quants". These PhD's would promise the universe, and very frequently, they delivered. Until they didn't. Because, from time to time, the underlying assumptions behind their models would be violated. It's something the rest of us like to call the "real world". You can model stuff and draw conclusions, but ultimately, your results must match the real world. And in this case, what we see a lot of are superspreaders. People who, to take one obvious example, might work as a flight attendant. Or a roving home health specialist. Whatever. The model isn't as robust as one might think, and we don't have time to test all of this out. Second issue. If you restrict everyone more or less to their home for a period of time, fine. You've slowed the virus. You better have that vaccine ready, or else a month or two later when you let everyone out of their cages, and they commence to drinking and fucking and all those things humans do, the disease comes back in a massive way. The goal here is herd immunity.
  11. This motherfucker found a 1906 us Army emergency ration. He proceeded to eat it.
  12. Supposedly. this is what Italy will be doing in the quarantine areas. I do'nt think Italians will comply. People work until 5PM, they aren't shutting down restaurants at 6PM. Most don't even open until later than that. The border enforcement wasn't effective to start with, they lack the manpower. How do you have mass with 1m between every parishioner? Not gonna happen.
  13. Italy lockdown area. Keep in mind, Carabinieri are letting people in and out anyway. It's kind of a complete joke. The whole country needs to stay home from work for a month. Like I've been telling people from the beginning, get a couple months of rice and beans.
  14. Again, that's another point nobody disputes at all. The point is that once it's gone well past being contained, it's a waste of resources to try and contain it. Quarantine is likely to induce panic as people start getting more and more hungry.
  15. The extended quarantine around Lombardy is an example of why attempted containment is idiotic. They're doubling down, when they need to realize it's already out of containment. It's a waste of time and resources and it encourages panic when people realize the government has no idae what it's doing. Italy has a federal police force (Carabinieri) who can likely be used for containment. No such force exists in the US, and there are just too many roads and rednecks, there will be no such containment in the US in any case. Focus needs to be on marshalling medical care resources and protecting vulnerable populations.
  16. Fucking people won't respond when I send them emails trying to buy their cars. Shit's aggravating yo.
  17. This is one of those moments that reveals an issue with efficient market theory. There is no way that the financial difficulties have been quantified correcly and outlooks adjusted. It's not just about getting stocks a little cheaper. It's a matter of understanding the broad economic impacts, especially on balance sheets. Lots of bad earnings news coming. Banks in particular are at risk, although that is always mitigated by central bank action. But when your customers just stop paying loans, well, let's just agree that european banks are the ones most exposed to this. Italian banks in particular were already zombies, Deutsche Bank also. This is a true financial analyst's dream come true. It's not the headline stocks, it's specific companies that will go to zero or earn a windfall as a result of the virus. This is going to go on for the rest of the year, and nobody was prepard for that. A British airline already went bankrupt, we'll see a lot more of that in the near future, as well as many unexpected financial stories. Just a true financial analyst's dream come true.
  18. No amnesty for my stupid shit. I just realized how Google knows when a freeway is jammed up.
  19. And fuck Charlie Strong.
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