We want:
Aggie to beat LSU, UTSA to beat North Texas, Kansas to beat WV, Rutgers to beat Maryland, Georgia State to beat Troy, Wyoming to beat Hawaii, Virginia to beat Virginia Tech, SMU to beat Tulsa, Middle Tenn to beat Florida Atlantic, Pitt to beat Syracuse, and Tulane to beat Memphis. We can have 4 of those go the wrong way, but 5 and we are out. Besides that, we want BYU to beat USC and UCLA to beat Cal, but the full Pac-12 results may not be known until next weeks USC-Cal game. (USC and Cal have 2 games left.) We also as noted want Florida to beat FSU, but if that fails we still have the APR tiebreaker vs Gata which I assume we can possibly win (but I don't know).
If, from those first 11 games that I mentioned, we get 7 results in our favor, we will still be alive at the end of the day. If Pac-12 really will not allow losing teams to go bowling, then the Pac-12 cannot knock us out today.