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Tuco

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Everything posted by Tuco

  1. Yeah, tariffs. Tariffs, like sales tax, are regressive taxes which land disproportionately on the impoverished.
  2. I loved that he used that line in two movies.
  3. Sure, let's harden the schools. And when the "psychos" start hitting malls, we can harden them. And then the theaters, and concerts, and football games, and parades...any place that has a crowd, let's harden that. As a society, we should all pay so much more in taxes for the additional infrastructure and personnel. We should only carry clear backpacks, go through several metal detectors a day, and be occasionally searched by cops or rentacops. We should continue to militarize the police as part of the arms race with the general public, accepting an increase in police shooting civilians, and civilians shooting police. All because we couldn't possibly put limitations on some assholes' hobby.
  4. I don't usually worry too much about polling and prognosticators who say this will be a close election. I think it helps keep the dems focused, energized, and unified. But, the flip side of that, if it starts looking like Trump and the Republicans are going to lose badly, you will start seeing a battle for post-election direction and leadership. And that could help fracture the Republicans going into this election.
  5. That's probably a safe expectation either way.
  6. You know, I had somewhat forgotten how fucking dumb you were. Thank you for reminding me.
  7. Fuck off man. Nobody has use for me.
  8. Ok, be critical all you want, but do you know how long it took his handlers to coach him for that answer. His initial impulse was "just threaten to deport your nanny if she complains about not getting paid the promised wage."
  9. Right. But are his followers capable of understanding sarcasm?
  10. Fuck yes. From the article: They were at the center of this early on. Butina published an article in their magazine in early 2016. They hosted Trump's foreign policy speech in April 2016. Think tanks are practically indistinguishable from lobbyists, but their funding is completely dark.
  11. I doubt it. I think he is conflating daycare with preschool, and state certifications with educational paths that makes it easier to get hired as a director of a preschool. If you go to most Montessori-type preschools, the director likely has a bachelor or possibly a masters. That director is also likely the licensee, which requires ongoing certification. But not everyone who works there (even a Montessori-type preschool) needs to be a licensee.
  12. And the first part of that...my mom was 52 when I became a dad. This notion that there are grandparents are typically just sitting waiting to serve as full time daycare is an artifact from when women didn't work and when people didn't move around the country. Sure, it still happens sometimes, but to have it be the basis for a policy discussion is just idiotic.
  13. I imagine Walz probably helps with Wisconsin. Fair amount of population likely gets twin city media and similar northern Midwest populism.
  14. I have a friend from small town Nebraska. She ran for the Senate, but didn’t get past the primary. Her dad didn’t vote for her, even against other Dems, because it would have meant registering as a Democrat. He just didn’t want that on his record.
  15. Some nice earned media here. They are definitely making the unions front and center this campaign.
  16. Don't put that shit on Iggy.
  17. I imagine it would be effective against the anti drone netting covering fuel tanks and other targets.
  18. Yeah, install a ceiling fan? Fuck it, the fascists can win at that point.
  19. I want to believe. But, reading the link, it includes internet opt-in panels (rather than randomly selected), so big grain of salt. Although the fact that the Senate and House race seem wild while the state-wide presidential race seems reasonable givex you some hope. And Fischer is terrible. I think she's been there 12 years and hasn't had a public event in Omaha. She absolutely feeds into that rural vs. urban division. Even kindergartners know the first rule is to listen to the teacher. Trump can't claim they didn't know the rules when Arlington staff tried to shut it down.
  20. Honestly, the litany of stupid, racist, insane shit that Trump has done over the last 10 years has outpaced my ability to catalog them all. I don't remember that incident. Can you refresh my memory?
  21. I don't remember him specifically talking about immigrant children going to school. That seems like a new and nasty turn. And you fucking know some fucking 3rd grader is going to watch that over at his grandma's house. Trump is a hero for a decent portion of the country, and their hero just targeted the kids going to school. But, I don't watch that much of his shit, so he may have been saying it all along.
  22. Fair enough. I think those are good reasons to believe his model is off. But, I get why a modeler is going to limit the scope of his model. And I get why someone trying to make a buck off it isn’t going to highlight the deficiencies. It’s all with a giant grain of salt.
  23. He is not reporting on, or explaining, the polling. He’s explaining why the model shows Trump with a very slight lead despite what most people would intuitively believe when looking at the polls. I doubt he includes the other factors (like Trump shooting) because he doesn’t have past experience to base it on. I will say I took a quick look at the rolling average from 2020 and it’s difficult to see any bump and subsequent decay. But, the conventions were back to back, the candidates well know, and you can’t split the polling out by polling spans. Maybe it’s something that made sense 15 years ago, but so much has changed with voter engagement it’s a guess to say it’s still valid.
  24. If I understand it correctly, he’s not modifying the poll. He is explaining that his predictive model adjusts post-convention polling because the bump historically diminishes after a couple of weeks. If that is what has been observed the last few cycles, it seems like a reasonable approach. I personally don’t feel it will hold true this time, but who cares. As far as I’m concerned, any story that says this is a coin flip is welcomed. The fear of a Trump second term is a huge motivator.
  25. Nah. I have to think a high percentage of Trump voters hate him but don’t care because they think he will enforce the fiscal policy they want. 8 years ago they voted for him to end Obamacare, now he is pledging to expand it. Shit, four years ago, Medicare 4 All was assumed to be a loser. Now he is talking picking up all costs for an elective procedure. Maybe it’s not a big deal because no one believes he will do it.
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