Tuco

I doubt it. I think he is conflating daycare with preschool, and state certifications with educational paths that makes it easier to get hired as a director of a preschool. If you go to most Montessori-type preschools, the director likely has a bachelor or possibly a masters. That director is also likely the licensee, which requires ongoing certification. But not everyone who works there (even a Montessori-type preschool) needs to be a licensee.

And the first part of that...my mom was 52 when I became a dad. This notion that there are grandparents are typically just sitting waiting to serve as full time daycare is an artifact from when women didn't work and when people didn't move around the country. Sure, it still happens sometimes, but to have it be the basis for a policy discussion is just idiotic.

I imagine Walz probably helps with Wisconsin. Fair amount of population likely gets twin city media and similar northern Midwest populism.

I have a friend from small town Nebraska. She ran for the Senate, but didn’t get past the primary. Her dad didn’t vote for her, even against other Dems, because it would have meant registering as a Democrat. He just didn’t want that on his record.

Some nice earned media here. They are definitely making the unions front and center this campaign.

Don't put that shit on Iggy.

I imagine it would be effective against the anti drone netting covering fuel tanks and other targets.

Yeah, install a ceiling fan? Fuck it, the fascists can win at that point.

I want to believe. But, reading the link, it includes internet opt-in panels (rather than randomly selected), so big grain of salt. Although the fact that the Senate and House race seem wild while the state-wide presidential race seems reasonable givex you some hope. And Fischer is terrible. I think she's been there 12 years and hasn't had a public event in Omaha. She absolutely feeds into that rural vs. urban division. Even kindergartners know the first rule is to listen to the teacher. Trump can't claim they didn't know the rules when Arlington staff tried to shut it down.

Honestly, the litany of stupid, racist, insane shit that Trump has done over the last 10 years has outpaced my ability to catalog them all. I don't remember that incident. Can you refresh my memory?

I don't remember him specifically talking about immigrant children going to school. That seems like a new and nasty turn. And you fucking know some fucking 3rd grader is going to watch that over at his grandma's house. Trump is a hero for a decent portion of the country, and their hero just targeted the kids going to school. But, I don't watch that much of his shit, so he may have been saying it all along.

Fair enough. I think those are good reasons to believe his model is off. But, I get why a modeler is going to limit the scope of his model. And I get why someone trying to make a buck off it isn’t going to highlight the deficiencies. It’s all with a giant grain of salt.

He is not reporting on, or explaining, the polling. He’s explaining why the model shows Trump with a very slight lead despite what most people would intuitively believe when looking at the polls. I doubt he includes the other factors (like Trump shooting) because he doesn’t have past experience to base it on. I will say I took a quick look at the rolling average from 2020 and it’s difficult to see any bump and subsequent decay. But, the conventions were back to back, the candidates well know, and you can’t split the polling out by polling spans. Maybe it’s something that made sense 15 years ago, but so much has changed with voter engagement it’s a guess to say it’s still valid.

If I understand it correctly, he’s not modifying the poll. He is explaining that his predictive model adjusts post-convention polling because the bump historically diminishes after a couple of weeks. If that is what has been observed the last few cycles, it seems like a reasonable approach. I personally don’t feel it will hold true this time, but who cares. As far as I’m concerned, any story that says this is a coin flip is welcomed. The fear of a Trump second term is a huge motivator.

Nah. I have to think a high percentage of Trump voters hate him but don’t care because they think he will enforce the fiscal policy they want. 8 years ago they voted for him to end Obamacare, now he is pledging to expand it. Shit, four years ago, Medicare 4 All was assumed to be a loser. Now he is talking picking up all costs for an elective procedure. Maybe it’s not a big deal because no one believes he will do it.

So, they list of reasons why I vote blue has already handle by numerous other posters. But why I am excited, specifically, for this cycle? Over the last ten years, the far right had been gaining strength across the Western world. While the names of the parties and politicians have been different, the world has become more isolationist, more anti-immigrant, and more racist. Whether it is Farage, Le Penn, or Trump, there seems to be a growing wave of hatred and dipshittery. It's been scary and depressing. Then Biden debated on June 27th. Fuck. I caught maybe three seconds of it scrolling past, but I knew the story. A second Trump presidency was just assumed after that. Then, later that week I watched John Oliver's piece on the upcoming UK election. Labor was going to crush the Tories after 14 years. Watching Oliver's elation after 14 years of stupid, shitty, ridiculous bullshit, gave me some sense that we could survive a second Trump presidency. On the 4th of July, it Conservative Party was crushed on a massive scale. Granted, the Conservative Party isn't Farage's Reform Party, and you could read that election as the Tories losing votes to Reform. But, there was more to it that. There was the need to actually have the government be competent. There was the realization that the isolationism of Brexit was economic idiocy. Then the French were up to bat on July 7th . Le Penn's National Rally Party had done well enough in the first round of voting that it looked like they were going to get plurality, if not the out-right majority. But the moderates and the leftists said fuck that, teamed up, actually had some candidates drop out to avoid the far right from winning. In the end, the right wing ended up in third and the left wing coalition received the most votes. Just an insane result. Granted, it's not all great with Rally being in that position after the first round. But, the election demonstrated that 1) moderates and leftwing are more concerned about the right wing than each other, 2) just a huge number of people will vote when facing the prospect of the far right government. So, now it's our turn. And I am excited that America will do its job. I see similarities in the French election - Harris is openly courting moderates from the Republican Party. Despite some controversial policies with Israel and the border, the coalition is holding on the left. It looks like it will be high turnout election. Trump and MAGA are just too disgusting for most people who are paying attention. At the very least, I think we will keep Trump out. But I am excited by the prospect of more of a UK landslide that sends a clear message that MAGA is just not viable. I hopeful that this phase in our global politics is coming to a close.

I guess this is a good time to make my plea for Tony Vargas in NE-02. Don Bacon (R) has held the seat since 2016, beating a one term Dem who got the seat after some teabaggers ran a third party candidate in 2014. Bacon runs as a centrist, but still campaigns with Trump and doesn't stand up against MAGA, except when the Freedom Party does stupid shit with the House leadership. That part has put him on the outs with the state Republican Party, who is very MAGA. They refused to endorse Bacon this year. Earlier in the election, I was seeing some Bacon ads where he was running to the right to shore up the base, including talking shit about immigrants. That is the first time where I have I have seen Bacon (or any elected Omaha based politician) focus on immigration. Omaha isn't terribly diverse, but with the stockyards and rail, immigrants have played a big part of its history. Tony Vargas (D) is the son of Peruvian immigrants. HIs father passed away from COVID and Tony pushed hard on better protections for essential workers in the meat packing plants. (His dad wasn't a meat packer.) Tony is a lawyer. I would say a moderate Democrat, avoiding issues that would hurt in Omaha. He is the first elected Hispanic state senator, representing South O, where many recent immigrants live. One of the things I really like about him is that would go door knocking even when there wasn't a pending election; he realized that his constituents weren't likely to reach out to him, so he reach out to them. Good guy. Well spoken. Would be a great addition to Congress and with his focus on constituent service, might be able to hold the seat if he gets elected. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/duforvargas24

I see it more of a “when pigs fly…” statement. The chances of Donald winning California is about the same as Jesus becoming an election commissioner.

...maybe an Ottoman.

Part of the absurdity over the kid thing is that I believe he was 33 when his oldest was born. His wife was 32. I guaranteed they both used birth control for more years than they didn't. The whole thing is nothing but bullshit to appeal to the bible-thumping crazy.

Scarcity drives price. I wonder if she will hold out until a "60 Minutes" type interview, negotiate what topics are off limits, and scheduled for maximum value to the campaign.

RFKJR looks a bit like Sinatra from that angle.

It still blows my mind that Michael Steele was the RNC Chairman just 5 years before Trump was elected.

Weird.

I don't think he makes horrible movie. I just don't think he gages the audience well. And he's not good enough of an artist to make it work. So, he spends a lot of money on something that just doesn't resonate with (enough) consumers. It's 2024 and he's making a 12 hour epic Western that doesn't have popular source material. That's just next level arrogance. Lonesome Dove had a built-in audience from the novels, and it was made for TV.