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Tuco

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Everything posted by Tuco

  1. They’ll buy the burners and then post pictures of themselves on social media.
  2. The Onion has the best coverage:
  3. My two cents: I think Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin are similar in Midwestern Popularism, but most notable in Minnesota. Not only do you get Walz as governor, but Jesse Ventura 20 years ago. The Dems in Minnesota are officially called DFL : “Democratic - farm - labor”. But, a lot of the same feel in parts of Iowa and Wisconsin, then lesser so as you get into Nebraska, Kansas… But over the last 30 years, national politics has preempted state politics. There used to be prolife Dems in Nebraska who could win elections. Now, there aren’t any left and they wouldn’t win elections if they did exist. The Obamacare vote doomed the last Nebraskan Senator. The “all politics is local” isn’t really true anymore in the age of syndicated talk radio and cable news. I think over the last 10 years you are seeing a resurgence of more progressive, common sense movements as a reaction to complete Republican dominance and overreach in places like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. Hopefully that grows.
  4. You and Morris may be right. But what Selzer is telling me is that under a different set of assumptions-that are realistic and supported by a very respected pollster - Harris wins in a landslide. And yeah, that’s a data point that is aligning with my gut. It aligns with other data points that I admittedly filter for, because it matches my gut. But it’s still a valid, compelling data point. (Worth noting that extrapolating from other IA polls, she still wins the election, but much tighter.)
  5. And this is how the fascists win. Actually, for those who can't/won't make it to a Chili's I recommend restaurants owned by immigrants, women, or POC. They have the biggest jeopardy in this thing, and I know I ain't driving 4 hours to Spokane for a fucking Chilis.
  6. Case in point, it's Milan Kundera.
  7. Update on NE-2 (Vargas (D) vs. Bacon(R)), but mostly just venting. I can't find the ad that national Republican PAC ran during the Husker game this week, but it was the head of the police officer association talking about how Vargas "blamed the police for a violent riot" and led attacks on the cops. I did find this one that features Douglas County Attorney Don Kleine saying the same thing, directly from the Bacon campaign. First of all, All Cops Are Bastards. That's the kind of mood this shit puts me in. Secondly, the history on this: during the 2020 George Floyd protests, I went to one of the Black Lives Matters protests. It was along Dodge Street, the busy street in Omaha. It was initially along the road, but the cops then put up barricades to close the road to traffic. Protestors go out onto the carless road. Cops then get into riot gear to clear the protestors, firing pepper balls at them when the highly predictable resistance to that order happens. There is absolutely no indication any protestors attacked the cops, despite thousands of hand held cameras and bodycams. . Later that weekend, there is a protest downtown. Vargas, and some other state senators, go down to observe the major political events happening in the region. Cops fire pepper balls liberally, including one that catches Tony near the eye. (I went down to help clean up the next day, and there were pepper ball marks 10 feet up on building walls; this was not selective use of non-lethal deterrent.) At the same downtown protest, a white bar owner shoots and kills a black protestor. After a brief investigation, Don Kleine announces it is self defense and there will be no charges. He doesn't even get the victim's name correct during the press conference. After the backlash, Kleine agrees to allow a special prosecutor/grand jury investigation, smugly confident that it will come to the same conclusion. But, the special prosecutor finds evidence on the shooter's phone (which was never released) and the grand jury indicts the shooter. Shooter ends up killing himself, thus the public never sees the evidence. Don Kleine switches from Dem to Republican, and thens wins re-election as a Republican. Thirdly: Unfortunately, the "back the blue" shit in Omaha is effective. So, I can see it working here. But they also ran these types of ads last cycle, so hopefully some if it baked into Vargas's polling previously.
  8. Not confident at all. If he wants to be re-elected, I'd say he stays indy for at least four years and then make the calculation if he has better odds in a Republican primary as the incumbent or as a Dem/Indy in the general. My gut is saying he'd tack right and go R, but it's worth noting that while has Fischer held that seat for 12 years, Dems held it for the 24 years prior. It's easy to forget how quickly things can change. But, even if he had an R behind his name, he's a huge step up from Fischer who will rubber stamp literally anything the GOP tells her to. Voting for Party leadership is important, but so are the actual Senators themselves. And she would need to be very wrong for this to be anything short of fantastic for Harris.
  9. I don't think that would help Brown. Because I'd rather have a blowjob. Is this a trick question?
  10. You know, might send a message to other billionaires that’s it is a bit risky to try to buy a Presidential Election.
  11. No, he's not. You are doing what a lot of people do: you see a problem and you attribute the cause as something you see as deficient. But, if there was really a cause and effect between these problems and that deficiency, if Trump was winning this voting block due to economic policy, nobody would be talking about "white working class" - it would just be "working class." Full stop. It's absurd to pretend that this is an economic policy issue. I would love to see more progressive policies. But, the House candidate my wife worked for four years ago was a Medicare for All proponent, in a district that went to Biden, and she lost by 5 points. The people prefer Biden's moderate economic policies. It's why you don't hear M4A discussed at all this cycle. It lost. In part, because the blue collar labor union members were against it.
  12. That’s fricken hysterical.
  13. I feel like you are reposting this from a couple hundred pages ago. On how many of those issues did the Democrats compromise the final position, but were coming at it from the direction you are advocating? Are you arguing against Democratic policy, or the inevitable consequence of not being able to magically implement it? And there is no NAFTA; Trump negotiated its replacement. (I wish Dems were better at messaging that.)
  14. I’ll give it a B+ for pivoting to Cheney’s Mideast policy. Getting Liz’s and Dick’s endorsements may help with some Republicans, but it’s a bit dicey for progressives, isolationists, and Muslims. I’m sure his handlers would rather be having that discussion rather than the one about whether Trump is calling for Cheney’s execution.
  15. To put it a different way, it’s seen as an accurate poll of Midwestern middle class whites. If he’s losing ground there he is fucked in Wisconsin and probably Michigan. Similar to NE-2, although NE-2 is tainted by the last minute attempt to disenfranchise the voters.
  16. No, if he said late voting was blacker, that’d be racist.
  17. I assume we will have an Election Day music thread on Tuesday.
  18. Regardless of the reasons, we get that’s not a great time for you or your wife. I’m sorry you’re going through it.
  19. Hey, I'm angry too, but don't do anything rash.
  20. Yeah, my covenant in Golden Valley MN had a bunch weird stuff about the total number of different animals you could have on the property and shit like that, but also one about one about no interracial couples. All then had an expiration date of like 20 years out from the original, except the racist one.
  21. Same here. Of course the fucked up thing is that this preference reflects how I decided to set up my life. I could just change the time I go to work, go to sleep, and wake up.
  22. Some of them did. But Trump was touting how he invented the various vaccines and his CDC was pushing folks to get them. He was still part of the industrial medical conspiracy. Promising RFKjr control is a major shift.
  23. I would add: - Anti-vaxxers, anti-establishment left leaners who will come over with RFKjr - Racists who aren't inclined for a black woman. (I think Trump already captured a big chunk of these, but actually running against a black person will help get more, particularly from anti-black Latinos) - Variety of sexists who won't vote for a woman
  24. With 6 days until the finish, I don't know how important the "national vibes" are. This is get out-the-vote time. So far, that NBC article is the only one I've found, and it makes him sound like a nutter, because he is. I could see it as an attempt to energize his base - projecting confidence and momentum. I can see it as a distraction from other narratives. But, mostly I see it as a deluded, crazy old man.
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