As Americans, I think we are predisposed to perceive the state of the world as consequences to our actions, or inactions.
Yep. On the military front, obviously providing weapons for six years had a big effect on their military. That's not just a credit to Obama, but to even to complete shitstains like Graham and McConnell. And, of course, it's a credit to the Ukrainian military for preparing for this.
But, the difference in politics is probably bigger. It is not only the reason why we are more likely to support them, it is why Putin felt he needed to invade. In 2014, Ukraine was at a turning point. By 2019, they were clearly moving westward after Zelensky's decisive victory.
Can someone provide a clear distinction between Obama's 2014 response and Biden's early 2022 response? In both cases, I see 1) provide arms, 2) pressure allies for sanctions, 3) absolutely, positively do not risk American lives over it. Ok, the level of arms and sanctions may be different, but the basic response was the same. And Biden early 2022 is not responding the same as Biden July 2023. As the war goes on, we increase the sophistication of the weapons we send. It's not about Biden becoming more old school; it's about gaining the confidence that the Ukrainians can make good use of it. It's also about recognizing that there is little escalation the Russians can do at this point. 2014 was just different in both aspects.
That being said, there are very few people I would rather have dealing with this. In 2008, I supported Biden over Clinton and Obama, precisely because of his foreign policy chops. As the VP, Ukraine was one of Biden's pet projects. In 2014 and 2015, he travelled to Kiev to push anticorruption measures. Remember when Trump was whining that Biden threatened to withhold funds if Ukraine (Poroshenko) didn't fire the Prosecutor General (Shokin)? Well, it is true, but that is because Biden was pushing hard to change the corrupt political culture in Ukraine and Shokin is a corrupt sack of shit. And it was precisely those kind of political challenges that made it difficult to go all in on Ukraine in 2014-2016. I don't think Biden was "in Obama's ear," as much as he was guiding the policy.
I don't think the Malaysian airliner made any difference in the American perception of situation.
Regarding our allies, we couldn't even stop Germany from codeveloping Nordstream II with the Russians, despite making their gas shipments Ukraine-proof. It wasn't until 1) Russia did the full scale invasion and 2) the Ukrainians repelled it that people started giving a shit. If Kiev had fallen in March 2022, you know we would currently be working on "normalizing" relations, including rolling back sanctions. People like underdog stories, and this is an amazing story.