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Tuco

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Everything posted by Tuco

  1. Tuco
    I think #1 would appear to happen before #5. In other words, I could see a bunch of Republicans telling McCarthy to stand aside “willingly” or they would pull their votes. As bad as it looks for McCarthy now, if he starts losing by 30 or 40 votes it would be colossally ugly. If he were to withdraw now, maybe he has a shot in two months after the next revolt. If he publicly loses a bigger chunk of the caucus, I don’t see that ever happening, especially since his unwillingness to stand aside would certainly be remembered.
  2. Tuco
    January 2021, we learned that Republicans are really shitty with the whole peaceful transfer of power thing when they lose. This January, we learned they ain’t much better when they win.
  3. Tuco
    I know most criminals are stupid, but that definitely takes it to the next level. Attack a substation to get to a cash register? This criminal genius is going to get 20 years for a $40 heist. Ok, $43 if he grabbed the roll of nickels.
  4. Tuco
    It seems like that would tend to bring Jordan to heel rather than divide.
  5. Tuco
    2000 or 2008. For all W's faults, I don't recall him hitting the racism/nativism button more than your average Republican. Sure, after 9/11, the Republicans led the way on anti-Muslim/anti-foreign/anti-brown. But W won the Muslim vote in 2000. I saw 2008 as a turning point for Republicans. Brownback didn't win the nomination, but he definitely demonstrated the willingness to say that shit out loud, and he wasn't boo'ed off the stage. Then Palin. Then McCain having to push back on a voter who thought Obama was a secret Muslim.
  6. Tuco
    The book mentions Trump a few times. I wouldn’t say Bateman was in any way based on Trump, but he was the embodiment of the perverse, soulless, status-driven vanity for which Trump was the 80s poster child.
  7. Tuco
    Napoleonic Code is always fascinating.
  8. Tuco
    Maybe I am missing sarcasm here, but the AEI is neocon central and closely aligned with Republicans and aggressive conservative foreign policy. Paul Wolfowitz is currently a senior fellow there because these stupid fucks still think the Iraq war was a good idea. Lynne Cheney was cashing their checks while Dick was the most powerful vice president in history. I know there are plenty of people who try to paint neocon as being liberal, but it's not. It's just a Republican obfuscation to avoid blame for W's foreign policy. It's bullshit. It's like saying the Nazis were socialists because it was in their name.
  9. Tuco
    I would say the earned media from wearing the dress at the gala was absolutely a part of her political campaign. She probably got more donations within the 24 hours than what both of them combined cost.
  10. Tuco
    Sometimes you need to state the obvious when explaining something to dumb people.
  11. Tuco
    ….conjunctions?
  12. Tuco
    In a 215/220 House you would only need 3 flips or 6 no votes. While I really dislike the dude, Don Bacon (NE-2, Omaha) would be a likely target. NE-2 went Biden in 2020. While Bacon voted against the Trump impeachment, he said he thought Trump’s actions were wrong, but not illegal. (Bullshit, but at least acknowledging it wasn’t a perfect call.). He said he would probably not support Trump in a primary. I could absolutely see him supporting an investigation into the Afghanistan withdrawal. He’s a former Air Force general.
  13. Tuco
    I agree that this seems like a temporary pause in a generally bleak path. Two things that make me feel better about it: 1) the culture warfare that is at the heart of the Republican brand always loses impact as time goes on. In ten years, the swing vote will not give a shit about pronouns or CRT. It becomes normalized in the culture and it loses its value as a political issue. 2) more importantly, the kids are alright. They are the motherfucking cavalry. More of them will get the right to vote. More of them will exercise that right. And they are overwhelmingly voting blue. We just need to hold the line for another cycle or two.
  14. Tuco
    Anyone want to bet some moron posted the meeting info on a Facebook page.
  15. Tuco
    I was wondering the same. I could imagine a situation where the Freedom Caucus blocks McCarthy and then ten Republicans going to Pelosi and saying "we want this moderate Republican to be speaker. Will your caucus support him?" I could also see Pelosi telling them to piss off just to watch the Republicans fight.
  16. Tuco
    Yeah, that last paragraph was the most interesting part of the article. The Walker runoff sets up an interesting play for DeSantis. His most compelling argument in 2024 is that nominating Trump in 2024 is a losing proposition for the GOP, up and down the ballot. If Oz and Walker go 0-2, that helps his argument. A Trump-led GOP is a party that loses winnable elections. DeSantis and any Republican who is wrestling with Trump for control of the GOP have a vested interest in having Walker lose. If the Senate isn’t in play, that could take priority to a slimmer Dem majority.
  17. Tuco
    What a Dem majority gets you is the ability to bring a vote on popular bills that Republicans oppose. Think insulin price caps. It forces them to go on the record. The costs are unfulfilled expectations. If the Dems have the House, the Senate, and the Presidency, much of their base expects to pass everything on the wishlist. They don’t want excuses about thin majorities, filibusters, or the Supreme Court. I don’t think McCarthy will get an impeachment vote with a 5 seat majority. Too many purple districts Republicans who won’t play ball on Hunter’s laptop. The question is whether he’d hold the hearings knowing there is no end game. Can you imagine the testimonies?
  18. Tuco
    Good point. Knocking doors in Nebraska, it was always fun when the app indicated one registered Dem, age 19, and you would have to ask the parents (Republicans ) to make sure little Jimmy got the mail in ballot application.
  19. Tuco
    I think there was also a bit of misleading smoke about Republican registrations. My guess is that had more to do with MAGA v “RINO” primaries where indies and Dems wanted a voice.
  20. Tuco
    What is your take on polling? To me, it looks like you were able to get a pretty good read on this election by reviewing the polls, analyzing them for validity, and figuring out which analysts to trusts. While that certainly equates to not trusting all polls at face value, the polling is still at the heart of it.
  21. Tuco
    To put it differently, I think Republicans will show up to vote for Republican control of the Senate. They won’t show up to elect Walker over Warnock. A 50D/49R going into the race changes the election to one about the man rather than the party. And that’s not much of a contest.
  22. Tuco
    Nobody was questioning whether the Republican power brokers wanted to sideline Trump. The question is whether they could do so without getting hurt at the polls and whether they had the resolve to risk it. That resolve has faltered many times in the last six years. Maybe this time will be different.
  23. Tuco
    Except that we don’t have de jure segregation, we don’t have the draft, we don’t arrest people for being gay, marijuana is legal in many states… The issues changes and so do the parties. It’s a weird kind of progress, but it’s still progress.
  24. Tuco
    Absolutely not. It still pisses me off. Trumpism is still a major concern and the Dems should not prop it up.
  25. Tuco
    Cool thing about Washington state part 879: I am a professional engineer in multiple states including Nebraska and Texas. I recently got a license in Washington. Washington is the first state I’ve been licensed in that has sent a questionnaire/survey about building code changes the leg was looking to adopt. Rather than just blindly following whatever code changes are adopted nationally with additions/removals driven by lobbyists and special interest groups, they are asking for feedback from the people who use the codes on a regular basis. It’s a pretty simple thing that becomes obvious when you shift your perspective to serving the public.

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