Tuco

The general theory is that gas market volatility is the main weapon Russia has in discouraging the Europeans from supporting the war. The more people need to pay to heat their homes, the less likely they are to support continue sanctions, or, more generally, the less likely they are to re-elect their current leaders who made these decisions. Throwing a WTF into the markets adds to the volatility. The timing also roughly coincided with the opening of the Baltic Pipe, connecting Norway gas to Poland. Maybe this was a veiled threat to demonstrate the vulnerability of that line. It's also conceivable that Putin was getting internal pressure to yield to the West's demands to reopen the pipeline. Blowing it up is a bit like "burning the boats." Still, I am not convinced. The Nordstream 2 has been part of Russian foreign policy for a while. This is from Wiki, quoting a banking team's review of the deal: To have the Russians damage it, and in turn damage any interest in investing in it, seems like an extremely desperate move for minor gains. But so is wide=spread conscription, so who knows. My guess is that it is not that complicated to blow shit up. It doesn't take a superpower to do it. The country that would have the biggest reward/risk ratio would probably be Poland. They've opposed the pipeline for a long time and on national security issues. And, if they get caught, so what? Ukraine maybe has more motivation, but they would be crippled if they did something that pissed off the West. Latvia, Estonia would have motivations similar to Poland. But, it may also not be a country at all. It may just be people with the right tools and expertise who had their own reasons - political or profit. I really doubt it was the US. There is zero reason to get desperate at this point. Russia is losing and there is no reason to throw in plot twists.

Nothing would get those conscription efforts running smoothly like the news of a couple thousand Russian soldiers killed or captured in the next few days.

Sean Lock (RIP) had some thoughts prior to the vote. Worth picking up at the 2:15 mark.

Fair enough. It would be interesting if he would hold the stance if he's the tie-breaker, or if he could negotiate a different R leader if he was a tie-breaker.

Would it really have profound effects on the control of the Senate? I assume Lee would caucus with the Republicans in determining Senate leadership. Maybe he flip if they were pushing some Trumpkin dipshit, but I assume he would vote McConnell over Schumer. It's not like they just count up the Ds and Rs behind the names. Note: this is out of the Federalist. It's a fundraising article for Lee.

Self-defense claim in 3...2...1...

It’s not really worth entertaining that his Sergeant liked him despite the DUI. He had to lie about his service because he is the kind of person who would lie about his service. That is a character defect that doesn’t mix well with authority. Or teamwork. E2. Can’t reenlist. Yeah, I don’t think he had too many bosses looking to go out of their way to protect him.

The more I think about it, the more I think Trump should take it upon himself to fly to Kiev to meet with Zelensky and perhaps the mayor of Kiev. It might be the first time a former American President is publicly executed by an ally, but that's a risk I am willing to take. Give peace a chance is my motto. Go save the world Donny John, no matter the consequences. We will be right behind you, pointing and laughing.

"I will head up group???" Um, since you asked, no, you will not head up group.

Seems like she is not very good at being a judge. Politics and appointments aside, she’s just not very detail oriented.

It seems stupid on their part, but they’ve been doing a lot of stupid shit lately, so who knows.

NS2 is an interesting topic and it’s an interesting development if someone sabotaged it. But, I will still maintain that blaming Biden for threatening NS2 is fucking stupid. It’s was a project wrought with political baggage from the start and was an obvious target. Any President who didn’t threaten it should be impeached for criminal incompetence. It’s pretty obvious it’s just an excuse to throw shit Biden’s way. Biden deserves credit for using diplomacy for shutting it down. If it was sabotaged, Ukraine would be an obvious suspect. Could be militant environmentalists. Could be the US, but one of the most important aspects of sanctions is the ability to lift them. You don’t really want to melt your bargaining chips.

It takes a special kind of idiot to blame Biden for threatening NS2. And, yeah, Biden was able to stop it without some James Bond plot. Let’s go Brandon.

I bought it several months ago, but I couldn’t muster the willpower to start it until recently. Still have to take it in small portions. Bush at War was a great read and gave me a much clearer understanding of the start of the war in Afghanistan than what I could get from the news.

It seems pretty chilly in Latvia these days:

Maybe he was part of a top secret research program in how to load planes. The Taliban will never suspect the secret is to lift with your ankles.

From an article posted upthread:

I think McAffee was better with laptops.

Yeah, I know. Russians are just people. But people suck. And when people are fed a constant stream of hateful bullshit, they suck more. And when they feel they have lost their rightful position in the world...well, let's just keep piling on parallels shall we. I don't hate the Russians. It's just another short story in the Anthology of Human Shittiness to One Another. This isn't new. What's the Voltaire line "those who can make you believe in absurdities can make you commit atrocities." I don't know who he was talking about. Different short story, from long ago. But regardless, the solution is the same. The Russian public has to become disgruntled for this to end, and the only way that happens is if they feel pain. Sanctions were the West's best shot at it. But that pales in comparison to pulling in a bunch unwilling conscripts from their homes and putting them in harms way for a "Special Military Operation." And, while not the goal, maybe the end result of feeling the pain is some real, lasting change in their country and how they choose to engage the rest of the planet. Win win, right.

Yep, while Russian elections are by no means free or fair, there is zero reason to believe that Putin doesn’t rule by consent of the people. And probably by a healthy majority. I’ve said from the beginning, they’re going to need to feel some pain before this thing will end. I’m glad to see they are, because it certainly pales in comparison to what the Ukrainians are experiencing through no fault of their own. My heart certainly goes out to Russians who oppose Putin and have opposed him for a long time. Like any citizens of a shitty country, there is only so much they can do. Recalling two things from WW2: 1) George Orwell’s editorial on why it is reasonable that London citizens should be bombed. There is no reason that only young men should bare the brunt of the decisions of their government. 2) Marlene Dietrich’s memoirs (or letters maybe) where she reflects on raising money to buy bombs being dropped on her mother’s home. She knew what was necessary.

Biden had an extensive 60 Minutes interview 3 nights prior. Trump was going to have a nationally televised interview. There was zero chance of that not happening. The other thing, Hannity is also powerful and stupid. One might say powerfully stupid. There was nothing stopping this train.

I think "Mangino". Great at designing plays. Probably picked on his whole life. Is a shitstain when given a position of authority. The actor who plays Nate is legitimately a brilliant weirdo. Sorry if this has been posted, but I am not going to reread all the thread.

I don't know why she would bail now. I would be very surprised if she still fucks him or that she abstains from fucking around. Trump Org is not Donald Trump. That can go belly up, and he will still in expensive homes. And, when he is dead, she can hawk ugly shit on QVC anytime she is looking for cash. Trump has something that no court can take away: millions of devoted idiots who will send him money.

In a lot of ways, that's more impactful than mass protests. One of the most powerful incarnations of non-violent resistances is widespread strikes. There are currently 20 miles worth of people who aren't showing up tomorrow, or the next day, or the day after. Those are empty chairs in the power plant* control room. Those are loaded delivery trucks parked indefinitely. Cancelled doctor appointments and shuttered repair shops. It is certainly a sign that Putin can't realistically go to a full draft, not without instituting Soviet-era emigration policies. Shit is getting real in the homeland. *Power plants, particularly nukes, have a disproportionate percentage of former Navy. At least in the US.