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Tuco

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Everything posted by Tuco

  1. This fucking McConnell article. I mean, what a complete piece of shit. Let's start with the punchline: This is what he said into his "oral historian" that he turned over to someone writing a biography on McConnell. These are the statements made by a coward, wanting to be remembered as something else:
  2. I wasn't sure the context on that. NBCNews
  3. The problem with modern polling is that it filters for people who want to answer political questions. Everyone else might as well be dark matter: we know it's there, we know it outweighs the known universe, but we have no idea what it actually is. Edit to remove response on Iran.
  4. Because we are the point of the campaign where we are going to start throwing turtle shells into the fire to read the cracks. It's human tradition to seek out any form of divination to see if we'll win the battle and whether our crops will get rain. 5000 years of desperation can't be wrong.
  5. I am saying that the "walking a tightrope" analogy assumes some sort of balance between two bad consequences - falling off right or falling off left. In the case of political campaign, it generally means striking a balance that loses the least votes. And that affects policy between the elections. If the Arab American or Muslim American votes can just be assumed, there is no longer balance. It's not a tight rope anymore. Do you disagree with any of that?
  6. Do you agree that tightrope changes when one side says "you have my vote no matter how much you ignore my concerns"?
  7. For what it's worth, reporting on the Arab News/Yougov poll can found on Arab News and a ton of media outlets. Where you can't find it is on YouGov. I'm guessing the partnership did not include YouGov designing the survey and they aren't keen to publish it it under their name. (Or maybe they are still cleaning up the report before publication.)
  8. It's worth noting that The Arab News is a Saudi-funded paper. I would like to understand how the sampling was done, but I imagine they had a call list rather than just pulling numbers out at random hoping to get Arab-Americans. If that call list was provided by The Arab News, it is likely the respondents were generally pro-Saudi, or at least regularly receive the pro-Saudi paper. The Saudi Arabia government does not give a shit about Palestine and is definitely friendly to Trump. So, I would take this poll with a chunk of salt.
  9. 1. That's just for people who don't want to walk. Usually the biggest issue is getting people to knock on doors and talk to strangers. That would be way easier to fake. 2. The vendor has zero financial interest in catching and firing cheaters. Fewer employees=less income. They get a cut of every fake. I imagine the fakers pull in more dollars per hour than those actually doing the work. I mean, what unmitigated bullshit. Here is someone explaining how they have been successfully gaming the system, and the these dipshits are trying to pretend it's impossible.
  10. Dropped off my ballot last night. Fuck Trump.
  11. Columbia City here. One the craziest things when the state government has decided to get the public more power: “democracy vouchers”. I think it is $100 in vouchers they give to every voter that you can pledge for any campaign. (Maybe just local races.). It means anybody, regardless of their personal wealth or backing, can gather enough seed money to get a campaign rolling if they connect with enough voters. Trying to level the playing field.
  12. I think it's likely just normal, everyday arrogance and incompetence endemic to the tech bro culture. Musk is outsourcing these efforts. I guarantee the winning presentations included the terms "disruptors", "data-driven", and "six sigma." The superPAC has previously fired In Field Strategies in Florida (Rolling Stone) and the September Group in Nevada/Arizona (The Guardian)". Not surprisingly, Musk's SuperPAC is poorly run and surrounds itself with poorly run vendors. It gives me some solace that the world's richest man throwing money at Trump's campaign is about as effective as throwing it at a literal dumpster fire. They don't understand regular people, which makes it impossible to manage canvassing, which is just regular people talking to regular people. Now compare Musk's / Trump's campaign against Harris's. It is supercharged by young people, who have known Trump since before high school. They are clever, undaunted, and fully committed. This isn't just about a paycheck for them. I have high hopes for this generation.
  13. I assume the pubs have an app similar to VAN, which I’ve used previously. The canvasser has a list of houses they are assigned to, with the names, party registration, and ages of who you are to speak with. You then enter the result of the attempt in the app- not accessible, wrong address, no answer, no interest, wants a sign, is interested in volunteering, etc.. There is a ton of discretion for the canvasser. How long are you going to wait for an answer after ringing the doorbell? Are you going to ignore “no solicitation” signs? Are you going to try to get into controlled access areas like apartments or gated communities? I’ll admit I wasn’t terribly aggressive about it, but I bet I was a shit ton more aggressive than someone working hourly. I would set aside my natural introvertism because I wanted my candidate to win. It would have been a very easy job to milk.
  14. to clarify, that's "to fuck with some volunteer."
  15. I signed up for the Madison Square Garden thing, so I have been getting texts from the campaign. I figured maybe I would fuck some volunteer, waste their time and amuse myself. But keeping it low key. Pretending I don't understand how hyperlinks work from their regular barrage of texts. Asking what they wanted to know when they asked if I would take a survey. Congratulating them when they declare "I am Trump." Low key, but believable stupidity. But it's just a steady stream of automated texts. No text banking. They don't have volunteers, just robotexts. For someone they think is going to a Trump rally.
  16. Me too. But I'm more of a pessimist. I think it would more likely be "Sir, here is a 30-page report of Kyrgystan. It sounds like the Russians crossed the border 2 hours ago and we need to determine the response quickly."
  17. The optics on appointing Smith would be pretty bad.
  18. Love this. Clean jabs. So confident.
  19. But to be fair, there is no reason for the Democrats to be pushing a different version. The perception of a close race not only increases the chances of beating Trump, it helps down ballot, builds a warchest, and brings new voters out for future elections. (Also, it lines the pockets of the political machine, but maybe that's a little more cynical than I want to focus on.) I have a legitimate fear that I may be misreading America and Trump really has a 50/50 shot of winning. I am sure the Harris campaign shares that uncertainty. They don't want to say anything that drives complacency. They aren't commissioning Dem friendly pollsters. They aren't releasing internal polling (except in races that no one thought the Dems had a shot.). They aren't working the media to drive confidence. I feel like it's the beginning of the pandemic when the CDC said not to worry about masks. It was bullshit, but it was necessary to get those masks to healthcare workers. I think Dems are complicit in pushing bullshit for the greater good. I'm okay with that, even if it wrecks my nerves. Or maybe the race really is close.
  20. Yep. I have been a democrat my whole life. But I am not hoping for the death of the Republican Party. I am hoping for the return to sanity. Politics without competition between two, reasonable, competent people is not good for anyone. I may never vote for a Republican, but I want to have that choice.
  21. "grover" isn't right, but something like that
  22. Well, the ones that survive grade school.
  23. "they couldn't get me, because I said 'peacefully and patriotically.'" Fucking knockoff mobster.
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