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Tuco

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Everything posted by Tuco

  1. Nah. For one thing, I think Romney may be more important in the Senate for Biden. In a 52/48 split, he may represent a potential defection on some reasonably moderate legislation. For another, Romney may be the Republican nominee in four years. You don't put him in your cabinet. But, most importantly, I am very concerned what Trump did with State, particularly in the Mideast. I don't trust Romney to bring light on to anything that would put the Republicans in bad light. And I'm not sure a right wing Christian is the guy to unfuck things there. (And, yes, Romney is a right-wing Christian.)
  2. I've never been to Philadelphia. I think my general impression of Philadelphia has been somewhat negative. I'm starting to love Philadelphia.
  3. I'm guessing that's what Diamond and Silk were clarifying at the bottom. It's 2020; Diamond and Silk need to provide a realistic check on stupid shit a former District Attorney/Mayor of NY/Presidential candidate tweeted.
  4. I like Pete for Secretary of Defense. Some might scoff at his McKinsey resume, but I like it for the position. Sure, there is a lot of bullshit in the consulting industry, but they keep making money for a reason. And, you know the DoD uses that type of analysis, so it would be good to have someone who knows what goes into the analysis to recognize flaws, misses, and bullshit. The DoD is one of our biggest annual costs, and if there is going to be any meaningful budget control, it will need to be approached from a business management approach. Since he was a consultant prior to his stint in the military, you know that's the lens he viewed his service. I bet he had a list of improvements to make before he ever went into politics. Unlike some SoD with military experience, his service is really recent - just six years ago. But, he is also very much a civilian. I don't see the point of having a general in the role. There are plenty of generals in the Pentagon that can provide that perspective. And, I think he is fully committed to getting us out of perpetual war, and he has the experience to challenge the obstacles to that goal that others may present. The negative is that I think it would damage his career. You can't make meaningful changes without getting a lot hate thrown your way.
  5. You know what would make it more likely? Trump going scorched earth on the GOP for not supporting his insanity. Which, unfortunately, means the GOP will probably line up behind Trump on his insanity.
  6. For what it's worth, I will still give credit to Bloomberg for attacking Trump in Florida, causing him to divert resources to Florida, even though in the end, it wasn't really in play.
  7. Depends. Are you working from home, or going into the office. If it's the latter, I recommend you wait until between meetings. If it's the former, be sure to turn off your camera.
  8. A couple of things: 1. There are other states that our still counting, but they aren't close, so nobody is paying attention. Arkansas is currently at 93%, South Carolina 94%, California at 66%, etc.. 2. The GOP blocked efforts to start counting mail-in ballots prior to polls closing. If they had counted them prior to the Tuesday, we would have known the results on Wed morning.
  9. Depends on Nevada. But, yeah, if they aren't chalking that one for Biden. Biden needs any two or PA.
  10. Puerto Rico did vote for statehood, but it was a non-binding resolution and a narrow vote.
  11. I guarantee you this will be the last election that Nebraska splits their EVs.
  12. Wisconsin has same day registration. Milwaukee Journal Star
  13. You know, when you compare what is actually happening to what you project would happen in a hypothetical situation where you invent the scenario and the reactions, it's easy to see where you get the both-sides comparisons. Hard to argue with that.
  14. Consider how quickly the BLM movement has progressed. Four years ago, football players were getting blackballed for kneeling during the anthem. This year, basketball players boycotted playing in the playoffs, forcing a compromise where stadiums were used as polling places. It's amazing and fantastic. But any time you have such quick gains, you have to worry about how much has really been what...internalized, solidified...not sure the right word. In NE-2 House candidate ran 10-15 points behind Biden, maybe because the R incumbent was able to run a better campaign, but maybe because she was attacked on BLM type comments. There was a NE D state senator candidate who won in a red area, in part because her opponent was an idiot, but she avoided anything BLM related. Definitely anecdotal and speculative. But, regardless, I think Dems need to stick with the movement. It's not something you sacrifice. But they need to get better on how to push it.
  15. A couple of theories: 1. "Black Lives Matter" is less palatable to many people than I hoped. I don't really believe in "shy" Trump voters, but I would buy that given a yes/no question on whether someone supports BLM, there are a fair amount of people who would give verbal support to it, or support to the idea that there are police reforms that are necessary, but aren't really solid behind either. That makes it susceptible to bullshit like saying it was Communist and anti-Christian. It made it susceptible to bullshit that mischaracterized defunding police. Once you give some of those supporters an excuse to vote against candidates who support BLM, they will. Since the Dems never really embraced the movement, they didn't work to define what it meant, so the Republicans did. 2. Many people are more afraid of the shutdowns than COVID. While they might dislike Trump's rhetoric on COVID, and think the government should be doing "more," they may be more immediately concerned with losing jobs and businesses if we go into a shutdown mode. I don't think the Dems did a good job of tying economic stability to controlling the pandemic. 3. Accurate polling may be impossible during an election cycle. I get dozens of calls from unknown numbers a day. I don't answer them. The people who do answer their phone may not represent a good cross-section of the voting public. Those are just some theories. I don't how you get evidence to validate or refute them. And, on #1 and #2, they are important enough that you can't just back off them. Maybe it's a question of how you market them.
  16. I absolutely believe the government will need to sue him to recover shit. Not like trinkets that dignitaries gave him that are technically the government’s, but like historic shit that has been in the White House for 100 years. The only saving grace is his taste is horrible.
  17. I'm going to go out on a limb and say they don't certify it until all challenges are exhausted. Certifying means it is done. If it would not have made a difference, he definitely should have gone to Pennsylvania more. There is a problem. You repeated an absurd assertion on social media without verifying it first, despite the fact that it is really easy to verify. That is a major problem in our society right now.
  18. Yes. Sorry. Tired math. Yes, the implication is there is a 160k dem advantage, but that implication is wrong because D+R does not equal 480k. -Shit. Nevermind. I just need to stop for a while.
  19. It's also misleading. 478k ballots with a 2:1 Dem advantage makes people think that Dems have a 300k 160k advantage in ballots. They have a 74k ballot advantage, assuming no party and minor split evenly. Granted, he posted the party registrations, but the text is kind of bullshit. Nevermind. I'm wrong.
  20. Ballots returned as a percentage of ballots requested: Party - Dems 82%, Rep 70.6%, No Party: 72.6%. Age - 18-24 : 65/3% - 25-34 : 69.7% - 35-44 : 73.5% - 45-55 : 75.6% - 56 to 65: 80.5% - 66+ : 85.1% link At this point, any mail in ballots should be deposited directly at drop boxes.
  21. Either "no reporters" just means no recording devices, or Ernest has someone on the inside feeding him info. He seems like an established journalists, so I think the info is reasonably trustworthy.
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