Tuco

I'm sure it's up compared to EV in previous years, both in total numbers and as a percentage of EV. But I don't think the percentage of youth vote as a total of EV in 2020 is higher than the 2016 total percentages. And I think that is consistent for other states. Nebraska 18-29 is at 11% total, Wisconsin is 8%, Ohio is 10% (compared to 18% of 2016 vote), Georgia is 13% (compared to 18%). [Not sure of that 18% is the nationwide % of 18-29 in 2016, or it's just consistent between states.]

The NBC tracker indicates 18-29 year olds are 13% of the 8.5M votes. That's the smallest chunk of any age demographic. In 2016, that demographic was 18% of all votes. But, I think younger voters are less likely to be concerned about voting on election day. (The 65+ chunk is currently 27% of EV, but was only 15% of 2016 total.) So who the fuck knows. That age correlation, in Texas and other states, may do a lot to challenge the notion that EV will be primarily Dem and election day will be primarily Rep.

So why is Texas kicking ass on early voting compared to other states? Is the hint of competitiveness bringing out a bunch of people who never vote? Are they pissed at some of the voter suppression fuckery? Was the effort to register new voters more effective than I would have guessed?

Those are minute orders. I need to up my prescription to read them.

As a Husker fan, I should be irritated, but with your early vote totals, I'm pretty much loving everything Texas right now.

I don't think it is limited to that one county. I work with a guy who lives near Philly and he said it took three weeks for a ballot to reach him, from the date it was listed as being sent on the election commission's website. Because of that, he ended up dropping it off at a drop box rather than relying on the mail.

The Dems should be blasting the airways with commercials that if your mail in ballot was lost you should come in and vote a provisional ballot.

Don't know if this one has been posted yet, but NBC's election page is tracking early voting, broken down by age group, party affiliation, and gender. I try to avoid drawing too many conclusions from early voting, so let's just call this speculation for the hell of it. Take it with a huge grain of salt. For example, Pennsylvania - link Comparing mail in ballot requests vs. combo mail-in returned and in-person early voting, the Dems request 63% of the ballots, but have 68% of MI+EV have been Dem. That seems like a good sign, as it could indicate a better Dem turnout on MI votes. Or it could just indicate that a higher percentage of Dems are doing EV, even relative the percent that requested MI. But overall, a good sign. Looking at the gender breakdown, 56% women is a good sign. But it may just reflect more women voting early, rather than voting in total. The biggest head scratcher to me is the total MI+EV compared to their 2016 totals. They are less than 36% of the total 2016 vote. Now, that is an increase of 1400% from MI+EV in 2016, so maybe it is just a massive pain in the ass to do so in Penn. But, (speculating) it may show a lack of effectiveness in the Dems pushing MI+EVs in the state, which is concerning for their effectiveness in total. And certainly mailing issues have been a problem.

It's not the odds that are concerning, it's the stakes. Hard not to be nervous when there are so many chips are on the table, regardless of what hand you are holding.

Accidentally?

I could certainly envision another balcony pose.

This is excellent work.

I'd love to believe, but I would call this race a Lean D at best. (Toss-up at worse.)

The Dems don't command the party loyalty that the Republicans do. Manchin isn't going to vote a certain way just because Joe tells him to. Getting to 50+VP in the Senate would be a huge advantage for controlling the agenda, but actually passing that agenda is going to be a bitch without being able to twist some arms, or a couple of extra seats.

Yep. And for any progressive who is cranky about pulling the lever for Biden, they should realize that if there is no mandate, there will be little backbone to implement even the moderate changes Biden is pushing.

They are only a distant memory if you are old enough. For most anyone under thirty, they don't remember.

I really wish I had more time to dig into this one this morning. The asshole was about two hours late to an outside event, in ~30 deg weather. And then when it was over, it took hours for Trumpkins to get back to their cars. The event was at TAC, which is a little airport connected to the the main Eppley airfield, but completely around the back of the airfield, around 3.5 mile walk. It's basically a county road that connects TAC to the rest of the Eppley parking. 30 medical contacts for TAC security. 7 transfers to the hospital. 1 complete clusterfuck.

Part of the death of expertise is the belief that competence doesn't matter. No matter how shitty someone in power is at running the government, it doesn't matter. Although, Hillary's emails definitely caused Benghazi.

I'm still surprised Trump is okaying it. The great thing about Bloomberg's campaign is that he is attacking Trump where Trump will be living in 3 months (god willing) and where one of his few successful resorts is. It's personal. "If your enemy is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him." Trump has shown the tendency to view states as either pro-Trump and anti-Trump, and the idea of him living out his post-presidency in an anti-Trump state is fucking delicious. So, while his campaign may not be relying on bullshit polls, I am willing to bet they are spoonfeeding Trump those polls to keep him from dedicating resources to a bad strategic play.

What's fucked up about that ad is that it shouldn't be a political ad. Pull the last lines about voting for Biden, and add in some lines about maintaining social distancing and wearing masks, to reduce the number of families that have to go through this shit, and put it out as a PSA. That is an ad the government should be running, not running from. But the traitors are more worried about maintaining power than protecting people.

Used to be, but after he relinquished whatever soul he may have had for Trump, I disagree. Nobody likes Ted Cruz, even his wife and children. He's a sad sack of shit. It would be like punching a cripple. There is no victory in that, even though Ted Cruz ate my son. The problem with punching Cruz is that he would kiss your ass after.

Bolded for emphasis. People like it when famous people visit. Particularly if you are in "fly over" country. I love that Trump is visiting Omaha today. It will get some Republicans excited that a President is visiting, and they know the only reason is because Nebraska splits up their EVs. It will make it harder for the GOP to push through a rule change that makes it an all or nothing vote. (I suspect the GOP will push it through regardless, because they know it helps them and they obviously don't give a shit about people think about fair play.) Also, the House is a very tight race, with the Republican incumbent doing everything he can to distance himself from Trump without looking like he is distancing himself from Trump. Hard to walk that line when Trump puts his arm around you at a rally.

Well, I certainly hope they stay the fuck off the streets unless something happen. The last thing I want is for him to station a bunch of troops in areas he thinks are likely to riot - ie, the places with heavy Dem turnout.

And maybe the assumption will be wrong, but it's one that is pretty reasonable when one candidate is pushing early voting and the other is attacking it. I'm not sure what you mean by "from whom they're coming demographically," The only demographics I see there are party affiliation (any major changes in registration have already happened) and that they are in Maricopa Co. And what that evidence supports is "Democrats are more likely to vote early in this election cycle." Hopefully that will portend greater Dem turnout (relative to Republicans) in total, but right now that is just a hope. Really good to know. Also good to know.

It's silly to compare early votes to total votes. Dems are more likely to vote early than Republicans. People in 2020 are much more likely to vote early than 2016. The stats are something that looks nice, but doesn't really say much.