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Tuco

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Everything posted by Tuco

  1. 83 year old virgin provides guidance on the relative validity of different types of sexual relationships and 1.2 billion followers actually give a shit. There is something wrong with that system.
  2. With 6% Undecided. I would take Greenfield in that situation. (2% for Stewart, 2% for Herzog, 1% for write-in, 1% for not voting on Senate)
  3. Margin of error goes to shit when you start breaking out subgroups. 23% of the 753 voters were in that group, so it's basically like a poll with just 173 respondents. That subgroup is an outlier in all of the questions, so I am guessing it was just luck of the draw that they oversampled conservatives in that subgroup. It'd be nice if they cross-tab age to other factors, like education, race, and party affiliation.
  4. I live in midtown Omaha. White and wealthy neighborhood; tending to be old money and Catholic. On my block, there was one Trump sign from an older couple. I'm assuming they have another house(s), and don't actually live there that much. They haven''t had the sign out for a few weeks, but I haven't seen them for a few weeks. Probably around 15 Biden signs. In the 3 mile radius, I would say Biden signs outnumber Trump signs 5-1, maybe more. Almost all of the Trump signs are in yards that also have Sasse (Senate) and Bacon (House) signs. There are many yards that have a Bacon or Sasse sign, but no Trump sign. I think part of that is that Trump's NE-2 ground game is run through the Neb GOP rather than an independent office. But Biden has even less of a direct presence, and there are plenty of solo Biden signs. And speaking of the sign war, I have to say that the variety of Biden signs are awesome. Some of them are through the campaigns, but a lot of them are just getting commissioned independently. We've got "Riding with Biden," "BYE DON 2020", "HARRIS 2020, and I guess Joe too.", "Teachers for Joe" that has an apple on it, "Vote Compassion, not Fear" - that one was from a bunch of Methodists I think, a bunch with sunglasses, "DECENCY 2020". And then there are the directly anti-Trump signs like "STD - Stop the Donald; Don't let the infection spread," "And One Day, Like a Miracle, He'll be Gone." I think the variety is great marketing. But the non-official ones also show the enthusiasm from Biden supporters to go out and seek signs online, rather than just signing up to have one dropped off.
  5. Sounds pretty much like what the Obama State Department concluded at the time. The problem is that neither the State Department nor the government as a whole has the power the prevent a private citizen from serving on a board, unless you want to talk about sanctions. And, there are potential conflicts of interest any time you have a relative of a powerful politician working for an entity that is affected by the actions of the US government. And it happens all the time. I don't see either side looking to pass laws to prohibit it.
  6. I love the idea. Go after Trump’s home state, where he plans to live. Trump has to defend that, regardless of the cost.
  7. Weird. I thought someone had posted that link, or something very similar, a few weeks ago and it was indicating they didn't start until poll close. I'm glad to be wrong.
  8. Florida doesn't start counting mail-in ballots until the polls close. I think it's going to take a while for them.
  9. The early/mail voting stats don't really make me feel good or bad. More Dems believe in the dangers of COVID and believe in the validity of vote-by-mail. It make sense they would be well ahead of 2016 early/mail voting. It makes sense they would be ahead of Republicans in that regard. By how much? Who the fuck knows. So, it's a comparison that I don't see as that interesting. About the only aspect I do find interesting is when they list the percentages of people who didn't vote in 2016. But even that, I'm not sure what is normal.
  10. Q3 FEC filings were released last week. In the race (NE-2) I am following most closely, progressive Democrat challenger Kara Eastman outraised two-time Republican incumbent $1.8M to $900k. Looking at the 2019-2020 cycle overall, she outraised him $3.25M to $3.19M. She did this without taking contributions from corporate PACs, while he was a sitting Congressman living large off their donations. He still has more cash-on-hand because he didn't have to spend on a primary, but I still think that's impressive as hell. She had 4x the total from small donor contributions (<$200). FM3 Research (B/C pollster on 538) has Kara leading by 2 points. Previously polling by NYT in Sept had her down by 2.
  11. Unlikely. But, if Ohio is in play, then they have no chance overall. They have to spend money on getting other must-haves down to 2-3% Biden margins, and then hope polling is undercounting Trump votes by 3%.
  12. Senator from Wisconsin. He's neck deep in the Russia/Ukrainian shit, and looking for any justification. 13? 14? She was a freshman. Yeah, it's kind of fucked up.
  13. Bullshit. If anyone is undecided at this point, it's not because after doing their analysis of various policy positions, they are still unmoved. They are undecided because they are only tangentially involved, and it will come down to who they'd rather have a beer with. It's all about decency.
  14. Absolutely not on Sasse. Maybe he puts an "I" behind his name, but still caucuses with the Republicans. He's the religious right dressed up as an academic. He is what Intelligent Design is to Creationism.
  15. At least I got to vote for Love. But, for all the people with yard Trump and Sasse yard signs, do they take one down?
  16. I'm guessing the biggest difference is that Republicans started to realize he might lose. It's one thing to withhold your approval as a symbolic protest; it's different when you think the black Democrat might actually win. As a Nebraskan, my answer to the soybean question would have been "Three to eight dollars per bowl, depending on which sushi restaurant you go to." It's not like it's something a whole bunch of people talk about. But, there is an expectation in ag states that their delegation members serve on ag committees, and Ernst does serve on the "Committee of Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry." Obviously, she doesn't pay that much attention. So, sort of a bullshit question, but did actually expose a legitimate issue. And what was great about Greenfield's answer isn't that she just demonstrated a knowledge of current pricing, but that she understood the term "break even pricing," which means she understands the dynamics on what it takes a farmer to survive financially. That's way more important in knowing what the price of corn is on October 15. I mean, she has a "D" behind her name, so it won't really matter much to those struggling farmers, but it was still impressive.
  17. More bullshit revisionist history. Paul Ryan absolutely endorsed Donald Trump and Paul Ryan absolutely worked with Donald Trump. And Paul Ryan did so to get a disastrous fucking tax cut for corporations and the investor class, and was only upset that he failed bankrupt Medicaid by kicking it back to the states. Paul Ryan can absolutely go fuck himself. Moral courage? No. Not even fucking close. That arrogant motherfucker kissed the ring, like everyone else in the GOP. Hell, Cruz showed more backbone than Ryan. "Only with Donald Trump and Mike Pence do we have a chance at a better way." - Paul Ryan, 2016 RNC speech.
  18. I hoping that the Ohio bribery scandal well help the Dems this cycle. It's like something straight out of a movie - corrupt politicians taking bribes to direct taxpayer money to nuke and coal plants, at the expense of renewable energies. Disgust with corruption is a fairly bipartisan issue, and this one is pretty easy to digest. Dayton Times
  19. It's simple, but costly. Opposing Trump means losing the Trumpkin vote, which means losing elections. They just want the problem to go away without sacrificing anything. Which is pretty much how they approach any problem - global warming, deadly pandemics, national debt, etc.. Edited to add: and yeah, fuck them. They are cowards and pussies masquerading as leaders, patriots, and Christians. Fuck all of them.
  20. I am willing to be that 90% of Republican politicians want him to go away nearly as bad as we do. They are tired of having to meekly defend his actions and rhetoric. They don't want another 4 years of this shit. They are more successful as an opposition party.
  21. Joe has enough money to shovel it into places he has no chance of winning, like Alaska and Montana. If he gets more votes there, so does the Dem/Indy Senate candidates who have legit shots.
  22. Yeah, I looked at it a little more, and it was saying that 95.9% of the early votes were for Trump, in a county that he won 67.4% of the vote in 2016. I think this is strong evidence that Texags has some extremely gullible people on it.
  23. Cool. Maybe in a month we can convince you that Biden will win. (all smiley faces 'n shit. I don't have a problem with the doom and gloom, as there is part of me that is there too.)
  24. You must feeling positively optimistic today to call it a toss-up.
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